AppendixAppendices C Transport Modelling Technical Report Northern Suburbs Transit Corridor | Preferred Mass Transit Study 1 Disclaimer C The forecasts has been produced using the Greater Hobart Urban Travel Demand Model (GHUTDM) and data as supplied by the Department of State Growth, and, from other sources identified in this report. PwC has not verified or audited the information provided to us and we make no representation as to its accuracy. It is also important to appreciate that Traffic and Transport Models and Forecasts are not a precise science and are only an indication of what might happen in the future, and may not be achieved. They rely upon complex sets of data, assumptions and numerous factors which can influence actual patronage, many being beyond the control or reasonable foresight of the forecaster. Any traffic forecast or other information contained in this Report is based on the information provided by you, and obtained from the sources identified, and the assumptions you have agreed, and therefore is inherently subject to uncertainties. Inevitably, some assumptions used to develop our report will not be realised and unanticipated events and circumstances may occur. Therefore, PwC cannot provide any form of assurance that the forecasts documented in the appendix will be achieved and no warranty should be implied as to the accuracy of the forecasts. Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards legislation. Northern Suburbs Transit Corridor | Preferred Mass Transit Study 2 Introduction C.1 Introduction The purpose of this document is to present the model development, assumptions and findings of the transport modelling undertaken for the Northern Suburbs Mass Transit transport mode study. The Greater Hobart Urban Travel Demand Model (GHUTDM) is a strategic transport model encompassing the Local Government Areas of Hobart, Glenorchy, Clarence and Brighton, whilst partially covering the LGAs of Kingborough and Sorell. The model development was originally commissioned by the Department of Infrastructure, Energy and Resources (DIER) in 2011, within the Cube/Voyager software platform. The model was developed with a base year of 2009 and a forecast year of 2031. In 2016, the Department of State Growth engaged GHD to undertake an update to the GHUTDM, whereby, the base year was updated to 2016 with forecast years of 2027 and 2037. The GHUTDM has been used to provide quantitative transport outcome metrics for transport options for the corridor. Structure of this report This appendix has been structured with the following chapters: C.2 - Modelling process: outlines the structure in which the GHUTDM encompasses C.3 - Assumptions: outlines the modelling assumptions underpinning the transport modelling outcomes C.4 - Modelling scenarios: outlines the model runs undertaken to facilitate the MCA assessment C.4 - Results: outlines the transport metrics utilised for the MCA assessment C.5 - Conclusion and recommendations: outlines a summary of results and advice for future improvements Northern Suburbs Transit Corridor | Preferred Mass Transit Study 3 Modelling process C.2 The GHUTDM follows a conventional four step modelling process which is further broken down into six main elements. 1. Trip generation - produces daily trip ends (person trips) by purpose 2. Trip distribution - distributes motorised trip ends using generalised cost and production-attraction matrices by purpose 3. Mode choice - separates daily production-attraction by trip purpose into highway and public transport 4. Time period factors - separates production-attraction matrices by mode and purpose into peak period origin-destination matrices 5. Special trips - includes commercial vehicles and external trips 6. Assignment - assigns trips by mode into the network (highway and public transport) and updates generalised cost by highway and public transport modes. Source: Greater Hobart Urban Travel Demand Model User Manual, AECOM 2011 Northern Suburbs Transit Corridor | Preferred Mass Transit Study 4 Assumptions C.3 Including base case road and public transport projects Key modelling assumptions as provided in the GHUTDM has been validated by the project team and amended where necessary, and as noted within this section. We note that not every modelling assumption has been reviewed, validated or benchmarked. However, for the purposes of this study, we have reviewed the following key modelling assumptions: ● Demographic forecasts - taken from those provided in the GHUTDM, with corridor mode specific land use forecasts provided by LUTI Consulting, with land use redistribution undertaken by PwC ● Road and public transport upgrades to the existing network - taken from the GHUTDM with amendments as provided by the Department of State Growth ● Direct user costs - taken from the GHUTDM, with no further amendments made ● Light rail, bus rapid and trackless tram options - established through consultation with Department of State Growth, Aurecon and PwC ● Travel time - estimated via a PwC developed model which has been used to assess light rail travel time for various projects nationwide ● Mode choice parameters - taken from those provided in the GHUTDM, with amendments undertaken by PwC in accordance with the Australian Transport Council (ATC) guidelines. Each of the key assumptions is discussed in more detail in this section of the appendix. Base case projects included in the transport model Project First model year project is to be included Kingston, Brighton and Richmond Bypass 2016 Brooker Highway junction upgrades at Elwick, Goodwood and Howard Roads 2027 Tasman/East Derwent Highway interchange improvements 2027 Richmond Road Master Plan – Cambridge Link Road and lowering speed limit to 80 km/h 2027 Huon Highway/Summerleas Road grade separation 2027 Tasman Highway/Holyman Avenue grade separation 2027 Holyman Avenue extension to Surf Road and removal of Surf Road between Holyman 2027 Avenue and Pittwater Road Cambridge Link Road 2027 Base case projects added to the transport modelling (list agreed with State Growth) Project First model year project is to be included Brooker Highway northbound off ramp at Berriedale – installation of roundabout 2027 Bridgewater Bridge widening (from 1 lane to 2 lanes each direction) 2027 East Derwent Highway widening (from 1 lane to 2 lanes in each direction between Gielston 2027 Bay and Risdon Vale) Tasman Highway Airport Interchange 2027 Duplication of the Tasman Highway from Airport Roundabout to Western Causeway 2027 Duplication of the Tasman Highway across Midway Point 2027 Sorell Bypass 2027 Macquarie St bus lane 2027 Firthside Park n Ride 2027 Huntingfield Park n Ride 2027 Kangaroo Bay to Sullivans Cove (Brooke St Pier) Ferry service, with a 30 minute peak and 2027 60 minute off peak Source: PwC (2020) based on GHUTDM Northern Suburbs Transit Corridor | Preferred Mass Transit Study 5 Demographic forecasts C.3 Demographic forecasts remained consistent with those established by GHD during their recent works in updating the GHUTDM, undertaken in 2016. The department of Treasury and Finance provided the population data utilising within the model, employment data was sourced from the Australian Government Department of Employment and Education data was provided by the Department of State Growth (primary and secondary education) and tertiary education was obtained from enrolment data from each institutions website. The demographic forecasts were provided per model travel zone, in which the model has been calibrated too. Hence, no assumed change to demographic totals were made. Table C1 outlines a summary of the demographic forecasts utilised in the model. Note: The model does not cover the entirety of the Kingborough and Sorell LGAs, hence, discrepancies in population projects between the model and Department of Treasury and Finance forecasts may be present. Table C1: Existing model land use demographics Demographics 2016 2027 2037 Population 216,341 235,772 251,838 Population Households 96,339 112,902 126,546 Primary education 23,223 23,400 23,459 Secondary education 15,736 17,115 16,979 Education Tertiary education 28,335 29,245 30,399 Education 10,100 11,229 12,261 Entertainment 11,600 13,141 14,526 Industry 23,635 23,108 22,937 Employment Retail 14,882 15,497 16,163 Service 45,780 48,999 52,128 Total 106,924 112,838 118,836 Source: Greater Hobart Transport Modelling Strategic Model Update Report, GHD 2016 Northern Suburbs Transit Corridor | Preferred Mass Transit Study 6 Land Use uplift / redistribution C.3 The demographic data provided in Table C1 (on previous page) formed the basis of the land use uplift forecasts prepared by LUTI Consulting. The land use uplift scenarios demographic projections were developed to represent a potential land use response to the inclusion of either light rail, bus rapid or trackless tram for stage 1 only (to Berriedale) and stage 1 and 2 (to Granton). The project presents an opportunity for an increase in population, employment and dwellings within the study corridor. This uplift would improve the patronage, revenue and benefits associated with the NSTC project. A summary of the increase, in dwellings and employment, from the existing model demographics within the study corridor are highlighted in Table C2. Table C2: Increase within the study corridor from existing modelled demographics Scenario 2027 2027 2037 2037 Dwellings Employment Dwellings Employment Bus rapid Stage 1 145 40 869 239 Bus rapid Stage 1 174 37 1,043 223 and 2 Trackless tram 284 71 1,702 428 Stage 1 Trackless tram 353 88 2,119 529 Stage 1 and 2 Light rail Stage 1 604 143 3,622 860 Light rail Stage 1 776 180 4,657 1,082 and 2 Source: LUTI Consulting and Cox Architecture (2020) PwC undertook a redistribution of the land use such that any increase in dwelling, employment, etc. within the study corridor was offset by a reduction within the greater Hobart LGA. This was to ensure that demographic totals across the entire modelled area were consistent with those existing modelled demographic totals, as presented in Table C1 (on previous page). The process for the redistribution across the model area was using a fixed percentage for every travel zone.