BAROMETER Current Events and Political Parties Development in the Republic of Macedonia Issue Nr. 31 December 2014 Dr. Natasha Gaber-Damjanovska In cooperation with the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung office Macedonia 1 C O N T E N T S 1. DEVELOPMENTS ON THE “NAME ISSUE” 1.1. Nimetz Visits in Macedonia and Greece by end-July 1. 2. Germany Included in Finding a Resolution for the Name Issue 1.3. November Meeting and its Echo 1.4. Nimetz’s Agreement Proposal Revealed 2. EU and NATO INTEGRATION PROCESSES 2.1. Council of Europe Delegation Visits Macedonia 2.2. Berlin Conference of Western Balkan States 2.3. Balkan States Expect No Breakthroughs at NATO Summit 2.4. EU Commission Estimates: There is Uneven Progress in Balkans 2.5. Newland Issuing a Message to Leaders of the Region 2.6. European Commission Progress Report 2014 Issued 2.7. Dutch Ambassador: Macedonia Tolerates Violence to “Shut People up” 3. ECONOMY 3.1. Unchained Borrowing Continues 3.2. Fall Budget Rebalance 3.3. Macedonia at Bottom of Regional Wage Table 3.4. Macedonian Economics Analysis, Critiques, Issues 3.5. Not so Many Foreign Investments as Promised and Expected 3.6. Any Hope for the Young in Macedonia? 3.7. Macedonia World Bank Country Manager Interview 3.8. Is the Russian Deal a Risk to Macedonia's EU Funds? 4.HEADLINES/POLICIES 4.1. Protests for the Lifelong Imprisonment Sentences for the Smilkovsko Lake Murders 4.2. Ruling Coalition Constitutional Change Initiative 4.3. State Department Report on Religious Tolerance in Balkans 4.4. Marginalized Albanian Politicians Declare 'Republic' in Macedonia 4.5. Macedonia President Voices “Balkan Caliphate” Fears 4.6. Political Crisis Endures 4.7. No Legal Processing of the Alleged Mega Corruption Case 4.8. Political analysts on the Zaev “Bomb” 4.9. Prof. Ljubomir Frckovski Interview for Inbox7 4.10. General Todor Atanasovski Interview 4.11. Macedonian Messy and Blurry Media Environment Indicating Government Links 2 4.12. Media Unions Tell Macedonia to Respect Freedom 4.13. New Macedonia Lustration Commission Elected and Continued Working in the Same Style 4.14. Changes in the Law on Elementary and High Education 4.15. Opposition Criticizes State of Macedonian Prisons 4.16. Brussels to Monitor Balkan Economies Each Year 4.17. Macedonia Plans Hospitals for Wealthy Foreigners 4.18. Macedonian Corruption Commission Still 'Ignoring' Big Players 5. PARTY DEVELOPMENTS 5.1. SDSM Stands Firm on Boycott 5.2. SDSM Party Strategy Announced 5.3. Political Analysts Critiques on the VMRO-DPMNE Rule 5.4. Is DUI Having Internal Problems? 3 DEVELOPMENTS ON THE “NAME ISSUE” The six month period until year-end showed no official signs of progress regarding the long pending name issue dispute between the Republic of Macedonia and Greece. Several meetings of the parties under the mediation of Mathew Nimetz took place, coupled with the obvious media bidding on details of the possible agreement. Still, the decisive move towards final resolution of the problem has not been achieved yet. The public however, through the media reports, got a glimpse of the elements of the agreement that has been under preparation for a longer period of time, focusing on details for which there is difference in the position of each of the parties. 1.1. Nimetz Visits in Macedonia and Greece by end-July The UN mediator in the name dispute between Macedonia and Greece, Matthew Nimetz, stated he expects substantial progress from his summer visit to Skopje and Athens. The visit came ahead of a NATO summit in September in Cardiff as it was unclear whether there will be much progress on enlargement with any of the four would-be members: Macedonia, Montenegro, Bosnia and Georgia. As known, in 2008 Greece blocked Macedonia's accession to NATO and stands on this position ever since. Same position is taken on Macedonia joining the EU, as the country obtained EU candidate status back in December 2005 and European Commission reports have recommended a start to membership talks each year since 2009. The last round of UN- sponsored name talks took place in April in New York but no significant progress was made. Considering that the dispute lasts already for over two decades, Nimetz stated that it was time for both sides to “seriously” reconsider ways to resolve the bilateral dispute, having in mind “the situation in the world and safety concerns”. At this meeting, name talks involved Macedonia's new negotiator - Vasko Naumovski, who replaced Zoran Jolevski after the latter became Macedonia's Defense Minister. Naumovski (34) was Vice Prime Minister in charge of European Affairs from 2009 to 2012 under PM Nikola Gruevski. Commenting on his appointment, former Ambassador to NATO Nano Ruzin said he doubted the appointment of a new negotiator would bring any new impetus to the stalled talks, describing his function as strictly formal. Before arriving in Skopje, the UN mediator stated that this time he expected “substantial progress” in the stalled search for a resolution to the matter. During his visit he admitted that he had not come with any fresh proposals for a solution, but rather old ideas that were worth considering further. As said, Nimetz’s statements were optimistic and in the direction of increasing the communication and intensifying the dialogue in order to boost opportunities for a solution. “This is encouraging for us and we will use this period to put wind in his sails,” - he said. Foreign Minister Poposki in turn called the statement encouraging and asked for greater international involvement so that talks could move forward. 4 1.2. Germany Included in Finding a Resolution for the Name Issue “Unsolved name issue and identity between Macedonia and Greece is burden for us” - said the German Chancellor Angela Merkel in front of the participants of the leader’s meeting of the “Brdo-Brioni Process” held in Dubrovnik. The German Chancellor expressed optimism that a solution may be found for that issue as well. “I think that we may and must resolve that matter in some way. I was personally included in that and I was considering for all possible combinations about the name, but I sometimes think that there is nothing more than can be invented…Germany is ready for a constructive cooperation in solving this issue but without compromise that is not feasible. In Germany we say a compromise is when all included are equally dissatisfied. Through compromise you cannot expect that will end happily for all. But fair compromise is when all are equally dissatisfied. There must be a way to achieve Macedonia to become a NATO and EU member” –she said. The Italian Foreign Minister and new representative for EU foreign and security policy Federica Mogherini said that it is necessary to put greater effort in solving the long- standing issue between Greece and Macedonia, warning that if soon it is not going to happen, internal conditions in Macedonia are possible to be disturbed. “Greece has neither desire nor interest to deal with the name problem, but sometimes there is need one to have time for everything”-estimated President Ivanov, emphasizing that “as time passes by, other countries became aware on what Greece is doing to Macedonia… Greece from its side does not suffer consequences due to the unsolved matter.” According to him, Macedonia has no enemies in the EU, but its enemy is the way decisions are brought. Still, various analysts believe that time is not working in favor of Macedonia and that slowly the country loses all friends in the EU due to numerous unfavorable trends that are taking place internally (democracy backslide being one of them). Others disagree, saying that time maybe works in favor of Macedonia in the sense that are clarified arguments the country has in the dispute, but it also works negatively due to the blocked Euro-Atlantic integrations and its consequences. Opposition leader Zoran Zaev (SDSM) stated that recently have been arriving signals for a possible solution of the name dispute so he would not like to be an additional reason for solving or non-solving of the matter, so he avoids commenting further. Risto Nikovski, a former diplomat, stated that regarding the name nothing substantial happens, on the contrary. “There are various initiatives including the one with Merkel to keep the issue alive, but there is nothing substantial not shall be in the near future”- he stated. 1.3. November Meeting and its Echo The UN mediator Mathew Nimetz called up a new round of talks for November 12 in New York. At the meeting were present again the Macedonian ambassador Vasko 5 Naumovski and the Greek diplomat Adamantios Vassilakis. After the meeting, estimations were that agreement has not been reached. Following the event, in mid-November the Greek Minister of Exteriors Evangelos Venizelos stated that “what Greece was supposed to do regarding the name, did it in 2008 by decision of a government committee and since then expected are adequate steps from the other side”. He stressed that the Greek position is unchangeable without any chance to withdraw the red lines for a composed name with a geographic determinant for all use. Demands are: change of the constitutional name and erga omnes use of the new name, so the new name shall be in use for international and domestic use, in international relations and international organizations, in bilateral and multilateral relations. Venizelos also accused the Macedonian side that “there is no advancement in the name issue as there is no movement from the other side”, stating that Greece in NATO and EU “explains” that regarding Macedonia behind the name problem “there are problems in relations of position with the opposition, with democracy”.