2 Climate Science Chapter Lead Authors: Craig D. Idso, Ph.D., David Legates, Ph.D., S. Fred Singer, Ph.D. Contributors: Joseph L. Bast, Patrick Frank, Ph.D., Kenneth Haapala, Jay Lehr, Ph.D., Patrick Moore, Ph.D., Willie Soon, Ph.D. Reviewers: Charles Anderson, Ph.D., Dennis T. Avery, Timothy Ball, Ph.D., David Bowen, Ph.D., David Burton, Mark Campbell, Ph.D., David Deming, Ph.D., Rex J. Fleming, Ph.D., Lee C. Gerhard, Ph.D., François Gervais, Ph.D., Laurence Gould, Ph.D., Kesten Green, Ph.D., Hermann Harde, Ph.D., Howard Hayden, Ph.D., Ole Humlum, Ph.D., Richard A. Keen, Ph.D., William Kininmonth, M.Sc., Anthony Lupo, Ph.D., Robert Murphy, Ph.D., Daniel W. Nebert, M.D., Norman J. Page, Ph.D., Fred Palmer, J.D., Garth Paltridge, Ph.D., D.Sc., FAA, Jim Petch, Ph.D., Jan-Erik Solheim, Peter Stilbs, Ph.D., Roger Tattersol, Frank Tipler, Ph.D., Fritz Vahrenholt, Ph.D., Art Viterito, Ph.D., Lance Wallace, Ph.D. Key Findings 2.3.1.4 Floods 2.3.1.5 Storms Introduction 2.3.1.6 Hurricanes 2.3.2 Melting Ice 2.1 A Science Tutorial 2.3.2.1 Antarctic Ice Sheet and Sea Ice 2.1.1 Methodology 2.3.2.2 Arctic Ice Sheet and Sea Ice 2.1.1.1 Scientific Method 2.3.2.3 Non-polar Glaciers 2.1.1.2 Consensus 2.3.3 Sea-level Rise 2.1.1.3 Uncertainty 2.3.3.1 Recent Sea-level Trends 2.1.2 Observations 2.3.3.2 Islands and Coral Atolls 2.1.2.1 Energy Budget 2.3.4 Harm to Plant Life 2.1.2.2 Carbon Cycle 2.1.2.3 Geological Record 2.4 Why Scientists Disagree 2.1.2.4 Greenhouse Gases 2.4.1 Scientific Uncertainties 2.4.2 An Interdisciplinary Topic 2.2 Controversies 2.4.3 Failure of the IPCC 2.2.1 Temperature Records 2.4.4 Tunnel Vision 2.2.2 Climate Models 2.2.3 Climate Sensitivity 2.5 Appeals to Consensus 2.2.4 Solar Activity 2.5.1 Flawed Surveys 2.5.2 Evidence of Lack of Consensus 2.3 Climate Impacts 2.5.3 Petition Project 2.3.1 Extreme Weather Events 2.5.4 Conclusion 2.3.1.1 Heat Waves 2.3.1.2 Wildfires 2.6 Conclusion 2.3.1.3 Droughts Citation: Idso, C.D., Legates, D. and Singer, S.F. 2019. Climate Science. In: Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels. Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change. Arlington Heights, IL: The Heartland Institute. 107 Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels Key Findings used. The warming of the twentieth and early twenty-first centuries has not been shown to be Key findings of this chapter include the following: beyond the bounds of natural variability. General circulation models (GCMs) are unable to Methodology accurately depict complex climate processes. They do not accurately hindcast or forecast the . The Scientific Method is a series of requirements climate effects of anthropogenic greenhouse gas imposed on scientists to ensure the integrity of emissions. their work. The IPCC has not followed established rules that guide scientific research. Estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity (the amount of warming that would occur following a . Appealing to consensus may have a place in doubling of atmospheric CO2 level) range widely. science, but should never be used as a means of The IPCC’s estimate is higher than many recent shutting down debate. estimates. Uncertainty in science is unavoidable but must be . Solar irradiance, magnetic fields, UV fluxes, acknowledged. Many declaratory and predictive cosmic rays, and other solar activity may have statements about the global climate are not greater influence on climate than climate models warranted by science. and the IPCC currently assume. Observations Climate Impacts . Surface air temperature is governed by energy . There is little evidence that the warming of the flow from the Sun to Earth and from Earth back twentieth and early twenty-first centuries has into space. Whatever diminishes or intensifies caused a general increase in severe weather this energy flow can change air temperature. events. Meteorological science suggests a warmer world would see milder weather patterns. Levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) in the atmosphere are governed by . The link between warming and drought is weak, processes of the carbon cycle. Exchange rates and by some measures drought decreased over and other climatological processes are poorly the twentieth century. Changes in the understood. hydrosphere of this type are regionally highly variable and show a closer correlation with . The geological record shows temperatures and multidecadal climate rhythmicity than they do CO2 levels in the atmosphere have not been with global temperature. stable, making untenable the IPCC’s assumption that they would be stable in the absence of . The Antarctic ice sheet is likely to be unchanged human emissions. or is gaining ice mass. Antarctic sea ice is gaining in extent, not retreating. Recent trends in . Water vapor is the dominant greenhouse gas the Greenland ice sheet mass and Artic sea ice owing to its abundance in the atmosphere and the are not outside natural variability. wide range of spectra in which it absorbs radiation. CO2 absorbs energy only in a very . Long-running coastal tide gauges show the rate narrow range of the longwave infrared spectrum. of sea-level rise is not accelerating. Local and regional sea levels exhibit typical natural variability. Controversies The effects of elevated CO on plant . Reconstructions of average global surface . 2 characteristics are net positive, including temperature differ depending on the methodology 108 Climate Science increasing rates of photosynthesis and biomass of the Earth’s atmosphere and disruption of the production. Earth’s climate.” . Because scientists disagree, policymakers must exercise special care in choosing where they turn Why Scientists Disagree for advice. Fundamental uncertainties and disagreements prevent science from determining whether human greenhouse gas emissions are having effects on Introduction Earth’s atmosphere that could endanger life on the planet. A central issue in climate science today is whether human emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, and other “greenhouse gases” are having effects on . Climate is an interdisciplinary subject requiring Earth’s atmosphere that could endanger life on the insights from many fields of study. Very few planet. As the size of recent reports by the scholars have mastery of more than one or two of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, these disciplines. 2013, 2014a, 2014b) and the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC, . Many scientists trust the Intergovernmental Panel 2009, 2011, 2013, 2014) suggest, climate science is a on Climate Change (IPCC) to objectively report complex and highly technical subject. Simplistic the latest scientific findings on climate change, claims about the relationship between human activity but it has failed to produce balanced reports and and climate change are misleading. has allowed its findings to be misrepresented to This chapter focuses on physical and biological the public. sciences. It does not address the impacts of climate change (or fossil fuels) on human prosperity, health, . Climate scientists, like all humans, can have or security or conduct a cost-benefit analysis of tunnel vision. Bias, even or especially if climate change or fossil fuels. Those topics are subconscious, can be especially pernicious when addressed in subsequent chapters. Sometimes science data are equivocal and allow multiple presentations also appear in other chapters, including interpretations, as in climatology. “tutorials” on air quality (Chapter 6), energy matters (Chapter 7), and integrated assessment models (Chapter 8), but most of the pure science in this book Appeals to Consensus appears in this chapter. Section 2.1 offers a tutorial describing some of . Surveys and abstract-counting exercises that are the methodological issues and observational data said to show a “scientific consensus” on the involved in efforts to understand the causes and causes and consequences of climate change consequences of climate change. Section 2.2 invariably ask the wrong questions or the wrong describes controversies over four important topics in people. No survey data exist that support claims climate science: temperature records, general of consensus on important scientific questions. circulation models (GCMs), climate sensitivity, and solar influences on climate. Each of these topics is . Some survey data, petitions, and peer-reviewed important for discerning and measuring the human research show deep disagreement among impact on the climate. scientists on issues that must be resolved before Section 2.3 examines observational evidence the man-made global warming hypothesis can be concerning four climate impacts: severe weather accepted. events, melting ice, sea-level rise, and effects on plants. Section 2.4 reviews four reasons why . Some 31,000 scientists have signed a petition scientists disagree: basic scientific uncertainties, the saying “there is no convincing scientific evidence subject’s interdisciplinary nature, the failure of the that human release of carbon dioxide, methane, IPCC to win the confidence of many scientists, and or other greenhouse gases is causing or will, in tunnel vision (or bias). Section 2.5 looks at claims the foreseeable future, cause catastrophic heating that a scientific consensus exists on some or all of 109 Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels these issues. A brief summary and conclusion appear Cambridge, UK and New York, NY: Cambridge University in Section 2.6. Press. Two previous volumes in the Climate Change IPCC. 2014b. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Reconsidered series produced by NIPCC subtitled Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Physical Science (2013) and Biological Impacts Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment (2014) contain exhaustive reviews of the scientific Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.