Nuclear Fuel Cycle Evaluation and Screening – Final Report – Appendix C October 8, 2014 APPENDIX C EVALUATION CRITERIA AND METRICS Nuclear Fuel Cycle Evaluation and Screening – Final Report – Appendix C ii October 8, 2014 Nuclear Fuel Cycle Evaluation and Screening – Final Report – Appendix C October 8, 2014 iii CONTENTS C. Evaluation Criteria and Metrics ......................................................................................................... 1 C-1. Nuclear Waste Management Criterion ..................................................................................... 1 C-1.1 Background on Nuclear Waste Management .............................................................. 1 C-1.2 Metric Development for the Nuclear Waste Management Criterion .......................... 5 C-1.3 Mass of SNF+HLW Disposed per Energy Generated ................................................ 6 C-1.4 Activity of SNF+HLW (@100 years) per Energy Generated ..................................... 7 C-1.5 Activity of SNF+HLW (@100,000 years) per Energy Generated .............................. 7 C-1.6 Mass of DU+RU+RTh Disposed per Energy Generated ............................................ 8 C-1.7 Volume of LLW per Energy Generated ...................................................................... 9 References for C-1. ........................................................................................................................... 25 C-2. Proliferation Risk Criterion .................................................................................................... 26 C-2.1 Fuel Cycle Assessments ............................................................................................ 26 C-2.2 Evaluation of Material Attractiveness ....................................................................... 27 References for C-2. ........................................................................................................................... 27 C-3. Nuclear Material Security Risk Criterion .............................................................................. 28 C-3.1 Background on Nuclear Material Security Risk ....................................................... 29 C-3.2 Evaluation of Targets for Malevolent Use ................................................................ 30 References for C-3. ........................................................................................................................... 30 C-4. Safety Criterion ...................................................................................................................... 31 C-4.1 Background on Safety ............................................................................................... 31 C-4.2 Metric Development for the Safety Criterion ........................................................... 33 C-4.3 Challenges of Addressing Safety Hazards ................................................................ 38 C-4.4 Safety of the Deployed System ................................................................................. 40 References for C-4. ........................................................................................................................... 41 C-5. Environmental Impact Criterion ............................................................................................ 41 C-5.1 Background on Environmental Impact ..................................................................... 41 C-5.2 Metric Development for the Environmental Impact Criterion .................................. 41 C-5.3 Land Use per Energy Generated ............................................................................... 46 C-5.4 Water Use per Energy Generated .............................................................................. 54 C-5.5 Carbon Emission - CO2 Released per Energy Generated ......................................... 57 C-5.6 Radiological Exposure - Total Estimated Worker Dose per Energy Generated (as Leading Indicator for Public Dose Potential) ..................................... 64 References for C-5. ........................................................................................................................... 84 C-6. Resource Utilization Criterion ............................................................................................... 89 C-6.1 Background on Resource Utilization ........................................................................ 89 C-6.2 Metric Development for the Resource Utilization Criterion ..................................... 90 C-6.3 Natural Uranium Required per Energy Generated .................................................... 91 C-6.4 Natural Thorium Required per Energy Generated .................................................... 91 C-7. Development and Deployment Risk Criterion ....................................................................... 92 C-7.1 Background on Development and Deployment Risk ................................................ 93 C-7.2 Metric Development for the Development and Deployment Risk Criterion ............ 94 C-7.3 Development Cost ..................................................................................................... 99 C-7.4 Development Time .................................................................................................. 100 C-7.5 Deployment Cost from Prototypic Validation to FOAK Commercial .................... 103 C-7.6 Compatibility with the Existing Infrastructure ....................................................... 105 C-7.7 Existence of Regulations for the Fuel Cycle and Familiarity with Licensing......... 106 Nuclear Fuel Cycle Evaluation and Screening – Final Report – Appendix C iv October 8, 2014 C-7.8 Existence of Market Incentives and/or Barriers to Commercial Implementation of Fuel Cycle Processes ................................................................ 109 References for C-7. ......................................................................................................................... 116 C-8. Institutional Issues Criterion ................................................................................................ 116 C-8.1 Background ............................................................................................................. 117 C-8.2 Metric Development for the Institutional Issues Criterion...................................... 117 C-8.3 Compatibility with Existing Infrastructure ............................................................. 118 C-8.4 Existence of regulations for the fuel cycle and familiarity with licensing .............. 118 C-8.5 Existence of market incentives and/or barriers to commercial implementation of fuel cycle processes .................................................................. 118 C-9. Financial Risk and Economics Criterion .............................................................................. 118 C-9.1 Background on Financial Risk and Economics ...................................................... 119 C-9.2 Metric Development for the Financial Risk and Economics Criterion ................... 119 C-9.3 Levelized Cost of Electricity at Equilibrium .......................................................... 121 References for C-9 .......................................................................................................................... 135 FIGURES Figure C-1.1. Influence Diagram Showing Some of the Factors Affecting the Challenge of Nuclear Waste Management. ................................................................................................ 2 Figure C-3.1. Influence Diagram of the Considerations for the Nuclear Material Security Risk Criterion. ............................................................................................................................. 29 Figure C-4.1. Influence Diagram Illustrating the Primary Factors Related to the Safety Criterion. ........ 32 Figure C-5.1. Influence Diagram for Environmental Impact. ................................................................... 42 Figure C-5.2. Material and Energy Balance for Each NFC Phase. ........................................................... 43 Figure C-5.3. Illustration of Range of Candidate Technologies and Options for Phases of the Nuclear Fuel Cycle. ............................................................................................................ 44 Figure C-5.4. Crystal River Unit 3 Site Boundary and Exclusion Area. [C-5.7]...................................... 49 Figure C-5.5. Land Withdrawal Area. [C-5.11] ........................................................................................ 51 Figure C-6.1. Influence Diagram Showing Some of the Relationships Between Resource Utilization and Other Factors. ............................................................................................ 90 Figure C-7.1. Fuel Cycle Development and Deployment Phases. ............................................................ 93 Figure C-7.2. Development and Deployment Risk Relationships. ........................................................... 94 Figure C-7.3. Influence Diagram for Development and Deployment Risk. ............................................. 94 Figure C-7.4. Technology Readiness Levels. [C-7.1]............................................................................... 95 Figure C-7.5. Influence Diagram for the Existence of Market Incentives. ............................................. 114