Southeast Asia Program Southeast Asia from the Corner of 18th & K Streets Volume II | Issue No. 11 | July 6, 2011 Thailand’s July 3 Elections: Have the Thais Empowered ASEAN Anew? Inside This Issue ERNEST BOWER the week that was Ernest Z. Bower is the senior adviser and director of the Southeast Thai opposition wins in landslide Asia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C. Inaugural Pacific Consultations in Hawaii July 6, 2011 Del Rosario visits Washington, D.C. Elections around Southeast Asia have assumed a new and empowering looking ahead role in defining the region’s political outlook. Beginning with Gita Wirjawan to speak at CSIS Banyan Tree Indonesia’s historic transition from autocracy to nascent if chaotic Forum democracy, the people of ASEAN are using the ballot box to send strong messages. This trend was underlined by the strong performance of CSIS’s U.S.-ASEAN Strategy Commissioners to Yingluck Shinawatra and her opposition Puea Thai Party in the July visit Asia 3 elections in Thailand. Yingluck announced the following day that Eighteenth ARF to be held in Bali she would form a coalition government composed of five parties, led by her own (Puea Thai won 265 seats), which together will control approximately 299 of the 500 seats in Thailand’s parliament. Unlike in the Middle East and its Arab Spring, most of Southeast Asia’s voters are finding at least some political space and empowerment within their political systems—an ASEAN Year of Empowerment. The results appear to have the potential to strengthen governance and possibly regional integration. In Thailand, for instance, the most consistent theme of the past five chaotic and even bloody years has been the unfailing will of Thai voters to remain focused on being empowered to choose leaders they believe will deliver value—economically, socially, and politically. While the response from important Thai institutions such as the military and monarchy remains to be seen, it appears that the people’s mandate may actually be the key to unlocking the political stability that has been so elusive in Thailand over the last several years. 1800 k street nw, washington dc 20006 | t. 202.775.3211 | f. 202.775.3199 | www.csis.org Southeast Asia from the Corner of 18th & K Streets July 6, 2011 | 2 Have the Thais Empowered ASEAN Anew? (continued) If that is the case, and Thailand retains stability and works toward reconciliation, then ASEAN and its partners would benefit significantly. ASEAN has been quietly suffering in its efforts to move toward its stated goals of political, economic, and cultural integration for several reasons, including the ugly thorn of Burma. However, the second- largest barrier has been the fact that one of its most important founding members, Thailand, the very country in which the regional grouping was founded in 1967, has been embroiled in domestic political infighting and has thus been unable to play its role since 2006 as one of the “core five” members of ASEAN. Indeed, Thailand’s Machiavellian politics have, at least in part, resulted in conflict with its neighbor Cambodia and directly undercut the narrative of ASEAN unity. While Thailand was focused internally, Vietnam has joined the core five and Indonesia has stepped back into its traditional leadership role. In addition, the Philippines, an original member of the nucleus of ASEAN that had been quietly dropped under the reign of President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, has been informally reinstated under the leadership of President Benigno Aquino III. Aquino is another leader who, arguably like political neophyte Yingluck, was compelled to take up the mantle of responsibility at the behest of his people. If Thailand is back, ASEAN will have strengthened its core to include six strong nations. Interestingly, the majority of ASEAN’s new core six have undergone important recent elections that have resulted in new leadership or refocused incumbents on responsiveness to the needs of voters, including economic development, governance, reform, and core requirements such as education, health care, and infrastructure. Prime Minister Najib Razak in Malaysia has worked hard to put political and economic reforms in place after heeding the historic message of the March 2008 elections. His efforts will be judged in the next Malaysian general elections, widely expected within the next year. Singaporean voters stunned the incumbent People’s Action Party in May when they voted a historic number of opposition party members into Parliament, and in the Philippines, voters last year conscripted Aquino to run for president and elected him with a mandate to fight corruption and begin a renaissance for governance in the republic. Even Vietnam went through its eleventh Communist Party Congress in January in which newly empowered voters and provincial leaders were given a stronger role in selecting leadership. 1800 k street nw, washington dc 20006 | t. 202.775.3211 | f. 202.775.3199 | www.csis.org Southeast Asia from the Corner of 18th & K Streets July 6, 2011 | 3 Have the Thais Empowered ASEAN Anew? (continued) Increased accountability in governance is a real trend in Vietnamese politics. American foreign policy should recognize the trends toward empowerment and governance in Southeast Asia. The movements have the potential to underpin a peaceful and prosperous Asia for decades to come. The Obama administration has positioned itself well to support and invest in a strong ASEAN made up of countries working to cope with new democracies and strengthened institutions. This is a critical point in the region’s development. While the choices illuminating political evolution, by definition, must come from the 620 million denizens of ASEAN, the United States should work closely and carefully with its allies and partners in ASEAN, and throughout Asia, to support these trends and an empowered ASEAN. The United States made a bet on a strong ASEAN as the foundation for new Asian regionalism when it joined the East Asia Summit (EAS) and when Secretary of Defense Robert Gates was the first to sign up to attend the ASEAN Defense Ministers’ Meeting Plus Eight (ADMM+) meeting in Vietnam last year. That vision is paying dividends, and investment, in terms of higher-level engagement in bilateral and regional frameworks backed by resources from the U.S. Agency for International Development, Department of Defense, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, and related agencies, should be redoubled and announced during President Obama’s showcase November schedule that includes hosting the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Leaders Summit in Honolulu and visiting Indonesia for his first EAS meeting and the third U.S.-ASEAN Leaders Summit. Thailand’s historic elections last weekend may have opened a door for new stability in Thailand. While they certainly did not resolve the massive underlying divisions between the country’s traditional power institutions and its newly empowered voters, the elections certainly sent a clear message to all Thais about the path to peace and prosperity. Thailand has traditionally adapted to support its own interests. There is at least a hopeful scenario in which competing Thai interests will find an accommodation to promote national interests over the coming years. While it would be easy to argue that such an outcome is too optimistic, it would be in Thailand’s, ASEAN’s, and the United States’ interests to see a new political accommodation emerge. This commentary was earlier published on the CSIS Asia Policy Blog, cogitASIA. Be sure to visit the blog, and subscribe via email or RSS, to ensure you receive the most up-to-the- minute analysis of developments from the region. 1800 k street nw, washington dc 20006 | t. 202.775.3211 | f. 202.775.3199 | www.csis.org The Week That Was THAILAND • Thai opposition wins landslide in general elections. In Thailand’s general elections held on July 3, 2011, the opposition Puea Thai Party won 265 out of 500 parliamentary seats. Puea Thai will form a coalition with five other parties, which will control a total of 299 seats in Parliament. The party’s leader, Yingluck Shinawatra, is the sister of ex-prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who is in exile in Dubai to escape a jail sentence for corruption. • Thai army promises to respect election results. Thailand’s defense minister, General Prawit Wongsawun, promised that the military will Yingluck Shinawatra at a pre-election rally. Yingluck, the sister of ousted prime respect the results of the election. On June 30, the army’s commander-in- minister Thaksin Shinawatra, led the chief, General Prayuth Chan-ocha, had said that the army would not stage a opposition Puea Thai party to a landslide coup even if Puea Thai won. victory in the July 3 general elections. flickr. com/photos/ratchaprasong2/5892299251/ • Thailand withdraws from World Heritage Convention. On June 25, Suwit Khunkitti, head of a Thai delegation in talks with the World Heritage Committee, announced his country’s withdrawal from the World Heritage Convention, which defines natural or cultural sites for inclusion on the World Heritage List. The move comes after the committee allowed Cambodia to present its management plans for the Preah Vihear temple. The temple, which is situated on the Thailand-Cambodian border, has long been disputed between the two countries. Chinese vice foreign minister Cui Tiankai SOUTH CHINA SEA (left) and U.S. assistant secretary of state Kurt Campbell (center) aboard the • Inaugural U.S.-China Asia Pacific Consultations held in Honolulu. On USS Chaffee in Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. The June 25, the United States and China held the first U.S.-China Asia Pacific two men met at the inaugural U.S.-China Consultations in Honolulu. Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Asia Pacific Consultations in Honolulu Pacific Affairs Kurt M.