Power System Development Plan for Lao PDR FINAL REPORT Volume A : Main Report August 2004 * POWER SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT PLAN FOR LAO PDR Prepared for Lao People’s Democratic Republic Ministry of Industry & Handicrafts Department of Electricity World Bank FINAL REPORT VOLUME A: MAIN REPORT Prepared by Maunsell Limited* in association with Lahmeyer GmbH 47 George Street, Newmarket PO Box 4241, Auckland New Zealand August 2004 * formerly known as Meritec Limited POWER SECTOR DEVELOPMENT PLAN FOR LAO PDR (August 2004) LIST OF DOCUMENTS VOLUME A : MAIN REPORT Volume B : Annexes Volume C : Project Catalogue TABLE OF CONTENTS 1.0 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY................................................................................................................ 1 1.1 Background .................................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Demand Forecast........................................................................................................................... 1 1.2.1 Domestic Market ..................................................................................................................... 1 1.2.2 Export Market.......................................................................................................................... 3 1.3 Project Evaluation .......................................................................................................................... 4 1.3.1 Evaluation Methodology..........................................................................................................4 1.3.2 Environmental Evaluation of Shortlisted Projects ................................................................... 4 1.3.3 Ranking of Projects ................................................................................................................. 5 1.4 Lao Power System Development ................................................................................................... 7 1.4.1 Methodology............................................................................................................................ 7 1.4.2 Grid Interconnection Strategy ................................................................................................. 8 1.4.3 Northern Region...................................................................................................................... 9 1.4.4 Central Region ........................................................................................................................ 9 1.4.5 Southern Region ................................................................................................................... 11 1.4.6 Transmission and Distribution............................................................................................... 13 1.4.7 Off-Grid Electrification ........................................................................................................... 13 1.4.8 Domestic Power System Investment Program...................................................................... 13 1.5 Export Market Development......................................................................................................... 14 1.5.1 Export Scenarios................................................................................................................... 14 1.5.2 GOL Revenues from Export Development............................................................................ 14 1.6 Nam Theun 2 Issues .................................................................................................................... 16 1.6.1 Scope of Studies ................................................................................................................... 16 1.6.2 Alternative Reservoir Full Supply Levels............................................................................... 16 1.6.3 Comparison of Price for Domestic Power Off-take from Nam Theun 2 ................................ 17 1.6.4 Comparison of Government Receipts ................................................................................... 17 1.6.5 Absorption of Domestic Off-take ........................................................................................... 18 2.0 BACKGROUND............................................................................................................................ 19 2.1 Objectives of PSDP...................................................................................................................... 19 2.2 Structure of the Draft Final Report ............................................................................................... 20 2.3 The Consultant ............................................................................................................................. 20 2.4 Acknowledgements ...................................................................................................................... 20 3.0 OVERVIEW OF LAO POWER SECTOR ..................................................................................... 21 3.1 Setting .......................................................................................................................................... 21 3.1.1 Development of the Power Sector ........................................................................................ 21 3.1.2 Planning and Financing Lao Power Projects ........................................................................ 22 3.1.3 Future Trends........................................................................................................................ 24 3.2 Power Sector in Lao PDR ............................................................................................................ 25 3.2.1 Status of Power System........................................................................................................ 25 3.2.2 Electricity Trade with Neighboring Countries ........................................................................ 29 3.2.3 EdL System Development..................................................................................................... 30 3.3 Review of Past Studies ................................................................................................................ 31 3.3.1 Summary of Key Studies....................................................................................................... 31 3.3.2 Reconciliation of Study Differences ...................................................................................... 33 3.4 Overview of PSDP Planning Methodology ................................................................................... 35 4.0 LAO POWER MARKET................................................................................................................36 4.1 Load Analysis ............................................................................................................................... 36 4.1.1 Analysis of System Load Data .............................................................................................. 36 4.1.2 Load Profiles ......................................................................................................................... 38 4.1.3 Load Duration Curves ........................................................................................................... 40 4.2 Demand Forecast for Lao PDR .................................................................................................... 42 4.2.1 Basis of Forecast .................................................................................................................. 42 4.2.2 Assumptions.......................................................................................................................... 42 4.2.3 PSDP Base Case Scenario Assumptions ............................................................................. 46 4.2.4 Comparison of PSDP and EdL Forecasts............................................................................. 46 5.0 EXPORT POWER MARKET ........................................................................................................ 49 5.1 Regional Market ........................................................................................................................... 49 5.1.1 Regional Cooperation ........................................................................................................... 49 5.1.2 Energy Distribution within GMS Region ................................................................................ 49 5.1.3 Electricity Trading among GMS Countries ............................................................................ 51 5.1.4 Regional Electricity Demand ................................................................................................. 52 5.2 Thailand........................................................................................................................................ 53 5.2.1 Sector Development and Reform.......................................................................................... 53 5.2.2 Energy Resources for Generation......................................................................................... 54 5.2.3 Demand for Electricity in Thailand ........................................................................................ 55 5.2.4 Load Profiles ........................................................................................................................