Purdue University Purdue e-Pubs Open Access Dissertations Theses and Dissertations Spring 2015 A hydroclimatic assessment of the U.S. corn belt across spatial and temporal scales Olivia B. Kellner Purdue University Follow this and additional works at: https://docs.lib.purdue.edu/open_access_dissertations Part of the Meteorology Commons Recommended Citation Kellner, Olivia B., "A hydroclimatic assessment of the U.S. corn belt across spatial and temporal scales" (2015). Open Access Dissertations. 483. https://docs.lib.purdue.edu/open_access_dissertations/483 This document has been made available through Purdue e-Pubs, a service of the Purdue University Libraries. Please contact [email protected] for additional information. Graduate School Form 30 Updated 1/15/2015 PURDUE UNIVERSITY GRADUATE SCHOOL Thesis/Dissertation Acceptance This is to certify that the thesis/dissertation prepared By Olivia B. Kellner Entitled A HYDROCLIMATIC ASSESSMENT OF THE U.S. CORN BELT ACROSS SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL SCALES For the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Is approved by the final examining committee: Ernest Agee Dev Niyogi Jonathan Harbor Harshvardhan To the best of my knowledge and as understood by the student in the Thesis/Dissertation Agreement, Publication Delay, and Certification Disclaimer (Graduate School Form 32), this thesis/dissertation adheres to the provisions of Purdue University’s “Policy of Integrity in Research” and the use of copyright material. Approved by Major Professor(s): Dev Niyogi Approved by: Indrajeet Chaubey 4/7/2015 Head of the Departmental Graduate Program Date i A HYDROCLIMATIC ASSESSMENT OF THE U.S. CORN BELT ACROSS SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL SCALES A Dissertation Submitted to the Faculty of Purdue University by Olivia B. Kellner In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy i May 2015 Purdue University West Lafayette, Indiana ii This dissertation is dedicated to my family: my father John, my mother Marcia, and my sister, Michelle. Additionally, I dedicate it to those who believed in me and my capabilities that I failed to see in myself through the years as I pursued my degrees in meteorology. The encouragement from these individuals, David L. Arnold and Daniel J. McMahon, kept me moving forward. ii iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to acknowledge the support of my committee members: Dev Niyogi, Ernest Agee, Jonathon Harbor, Daniel McCarthy, and Harshvardhan. Without their collaboration and encouragement this task would have been much more difficult and arduous. Further acknowledgement to supporting grants is provided at the end of each chapter. iii iv TABLE OF CONTENTS Page LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................. xi LIST OF FIGURES .......................................................................................................... xii ABSTRACT ............................................................................................................... xvi CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................... 1 1.1 Weather and Climate ................................................................................. 1 1.2 Large- and Local-scale Climates ............................................................... 3 1.3 Climate, Climate Variability, and Climate Change ................................... 4 1.3.1 Causes of Climate Variability and Change .............................................. 5 1.3.1.1 Climate Normal ....................................................................................... 5 1.3.1.2 Drivers of the Climate System ................................................................... 5 1.3.2 The Climate System ................................................................................. 6 1.3.2.1 Radiation and Earth’s Energy Balance ....................................................... 6 1.3.2.2 Climate System Interactions ...................................................................... 7 1.3.2.3 Spatial and Temporal Scales of Climate Systems ........................................ 7 1.3.3 Climate System Components and Interactions ........................................ 9 1.3.3.1 Large-scale Climate: General Atmospheric Circulation ............................... 9 1.3.3.2 Local-scale Climate: Land Surface Interactions ........................................ 10 iv 1.3.3.3 Large- and Local-scale Climate Merger ................................................... 11 1.3.3.4 Climate System Land Surface Components .............................................. 11 1.3.3.4.1 Vegetation ...................................................................................... 12 1.3.3.4.2 Topography ..................................................................................... 12 1.3.3.4.3 Soils ............................................................................................... 12 1.3.3.4.4 Albedo ............................................................................................ 14 v Page 1.3.3.4.5 Land Surface Interactions ................................................................. 14 1.3.4 The Climate System ............................................................................... 15 1.3.4.1 History .................................................................................................. 15 1.3.4.2 Future .................................................................................................... 16 1.4 Conclusion ............................................................................................... 17 1.5 References ............................................................................................... 19 CHAPTER 2. AGROCLIMATOLOGY ....................................................................... 22 2.1 Introduction ............................................................................................. 22 2.2 Agroclimatology ...................................................................................... 23 2.3 Importance of Agroclimatology .............................................................. 23 2.3.1 Agroclimatology in the Beginning......................................................... 24 2.3.2 Agroclimatology Today ......................................................................... 25 2.3.3 Importance of Agroclimatology ............................................................. 27 2.4 Agroclimatology Today: Some Important Variables .............................. 28 2.4.1 Agroclimatology in the 21st Century...................................................... 28 2.4.2 Primary Agroclimatogical Parameters ................................................... 30 2.4.2.1 Weather ................................................................................................. 30 2.4.2.2 Soils ...................................................................................................... 31 2.4.2.3 Water .................................................................................................... 32 v 2.4.2.4 Crop Management (Vegetation/Biomass) ................................................. 33 2.4.3 Agroclimatology in the Future ............................................................... 35 2.5 Conclusion ............................................................................................... 36 2.6 References ............................................................................................... 38 2.7 Tables ...................................................................................................... 43 2.8 Figures ..................................................................................................... 44 CHAPTER 3. CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND THE U.S. CORN BELT: ENSO AND AO EPISODE-DEPENDENT HYDROCLIMATIC FEEDBACKS TO CORN PRODUCTION AT REGIONAL AND LOCAL SCALES ............................................. 48 3.1 Introduction ............................................................................................. 48 vi Page 3.2 Climate Variability and the U.S. Cornbelt: ENSO and AO Episode- dependent Hydroclimatic Feedbacks to Corn Production at Regional and Local Scales ...................................................................................... 49 3.3 Introduction ............................................................................................. 50 3.4 Data and Methodology ............................................................................ 53 3.4.1 Data ......................................................................................................... 53 3.4.2 Methodology .......................................................................................... 56 3.4.2.1 ENSO/AO Climatology .......................................................................... 56 3.4.2.2 ENSO/AO Extremes Climatology ........................................................... 57 3.4.2.3 ENSO/AO Climatology and Yield Analysis by Crop Reporting District ..... 58 3.5 Results ..................................................................................................... 58 3.5.1 Climatology............................................................................................ 58 3.5.1.1 Teleconnection Impacts to Temperature and Precipitation ......................... 59 3.5.1.1.1 El Niño Southern Oscillation ............................................................ 60 3.5.1.1.2 Arctic Oscillation