Aliran Monthly : Vol.31(3) Page 1 For Justice, Freedom & Solidarity PP3739/12/2011(026665) ISSN 0127 - 5127 RM4.00 2011:Vol.31No.3 COVER STORY Making sense of the forthcoming Sarawak state elections Will electoral dynamics in the polls sway to the advantage of the opposition or the BN? by Faisal S. Hazis n the run-up to the 10th all 15 Chinese-majority seats, spirit of their supporters. As III Sarawak state elections, which are being touted to swing contending parties in the com- II many political analysts to the opposition. Pakatan Rakyat ing elections, both sides will not have predicted that the (PR) leaders, on the other hand, want to enter the fray with the ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) will believe that they can topple the BN mentality of a loser. So this secure a two-third majority win government by winning more brings us to the prediction made (47 seats). It is likely that the coa- than 40 seats despite the opposi- by political analysts who are ei- lition is set to lose more seats com- tion parties’ overlapping seat ther trained political scientists pared to 2006. The BN and claims. Which one will be the or self-proclaimed political ob- Pakatan Rakyat (PR) leaders, on likely outcome of the forthcoming servers. Observations made by the other hand, have given two Sarawak elections? these analysts seem to represent contrasting forecasts which of the general sentiment on the course depict their respective po- Psy-war versus facts ground but they fail to take into litical bias. Sarawak United consideration the electoral dy- People’s Party (SUPP) president Obviously leaders from both po- namics of the impending elec- Dr George Chan believes that the litical divides have been engag- tions. This point will be further ruling party will once again domi- ing in a psy-war to intimidate elaborated at the end of this ar- nate the state elections including their opponents and boost the ticle. Aliran Monthly : Vol.31(3) Page 2 EDITOR'S NOTE The upcoming Sarawak state election has grabbed our attention and the outcome could have far-reach- CONTENTS ing implications for both BN and Pakatan. Faizal S Hazis looks at the hot seats and wonders whether electoral dynamics will sway to the opposition or COVER STORY the BN. ••• Making Sense Of The Forthcoming Sarawak State Elections 222 The extent of poverty and income inequality in ••• Rockybru, ‘Sarawak Report’ And Sarawak will be major election issues. The pro-BN ‘Sarawak Reports’ 101010 sarawakreports.org boasts that under CM Taib ••• Sarawak Under-Development: Mahmud, the poverty rate has plunged to 5.3 per Shame On Us 131313 cent. But Philip Khoo counters that the real figure ••• Am I Interested In Sarawak? 141414 could be much higher. Abang Benet then pronounces ••• Klepto-Capitalism In Sarawak! 404040 that capitalism in the state in its current form only considers the interests of the BN elites around Taib. FEATURES If evidence is needed, just take a short trip out of ••• Holy Criminals Or Bibles? 161616 town, as our correspondent SD did, and see how ••• Isn't Religion A Sacrosanct Right Of rural Sarawakians live – many without regular elec- A Community? 171717 tricity, piped water and proper toilets. ••• Respect And Celebrate Differing HistoriesHistoriesHistories 191919 P Ramakrishnan touches on another hot potato: the ••• Clarifications On The Publication obstacles hindering the distribution of Malay-lan- myBalikPulau 212121 guage bibles. Still not convinced why we should be ••• Accusations / Clarification 232323 interested in the Sarawak polls? Put it this way, if ••• Arts Project Showcases Children's the BN loses Sarawak, they are likely to lose all of Collective Efforts 242424 Malaysia and risk exposure of their misdeeds, writes ••• Finding The Nation's Voice 252525 Rama Ramanathan. More Malaysians and others ••• Parasites Of Workers'Sweat And Toil 282828 must find their voice; Christopher Chong reminds ••• The Economic Crisis: What Are The us we need to reclaim the public square as a forum Main Causes? 343434 for responsible civil discussions. OTHERSOTHERSOTHERS Turning to the economy, Jeyakumar Devaraj ob- ••• Subscription Form 373737 serves that the global economy is in trouble as there just isn’t enough demand to attract industrial in- vestment. More employers are now turning to labour outsourcing agents for workers, prompting Charles Hector to call for a restoration of a proper employer- Published by employee relationship. 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Plot 78, Lebuhraya Kampung Jawa, 11900 Bayan Lepas, Penang Aliran Monthly : Vol.31(3) Page 3 Sarawak has 71 state assembly nese seats with hitherto big win- seats comprising 27 Malay/ ning margins in 2006; Batu Kawa Melanau seats, 20 Iban seats, 15 (4180), Piasau (3918) and Senadin Chinese seats, 6 Bidayuh seats (4799). Long-standing issues such and 3 Orang Ulu seats. In the 2006 as Taib’s authoritarian rule, alle- elections, the combined opposi- gations of corruption and tion managed to win nine seats of cronyism against BN leaders, which three had a winning ma- land lease renewals, Chinese jority of less than 1000 votes (Kota school education, the perceived Sentosa, Engkilili, Ngemah), two marginalisation of the community seats between 1001-2000 votes and the state of the national (Padungan, Kidurong), two seats economy will continue to feature between 3001-4000 votes (Batu in Chinese seats and ultimately Lintang, Meradong) and two seats influence their voting behavior. between 4001-5000 votes (Pend- ing, Bukit Assek). Most of the seats George Chan In Iban constituencies, the oppo- won by the opposition were Chi- sition has a fighting chance in five nese seats while two of them were seats (Engkilili, Ngemah, Batang Iban seats (Engkilili, Ngemah). more, namely Repok, Dudong, Ai, Kemena, Pelagus). Two of Pelawan and Pujut. All four of them are currently held by former Seats to watch these seats except for Pujut were independents (Johnical Rayong won by the BN with less than a Ngipa for Engkilili, Gabriel Adit Chinese voter dissatisfaction is 1000 vote-majority. By securing Demong for Ngemah). Johnical, deep and could persist and spread eleven out of fifteen Chinese seats, who initially contested under to the northern part of Sarawak the opposition (especially DAP) SNAP soon became a BN-friendly as indicated by the recent Sibu by- would severely undermine the assembly member, after joining election and a recently concluded dominance of the ruling party SUPP. Gabriel Adit formed a new Merdeka Centre survey where and seriously question the future opposition party, known as Parti only 21.5 percent of Chinese re- of SUPP. Cinta Malaysia (PCM) after leav- spondents indicated their sup- ing PKR. These two Iban seats port towards the BN. It is thus ex- In fact, given Chinese antipathy could easily swing back to the BN pected that the opposition will towards CM Abdul Taib since the BN is expected to shower retain the seven Chinese seats that Mahmud, it will be no surprise if various development projects and they won in 2006 and gain four the opposition grabs other Chi- money as inducements to lure ru- Table 1: Vote-Majority in the 2006 Sarawak State Elections Seats <1000 1001-2000 2001-3000 3001-4000 4001-5000 >5001 Total Malay/Melanau 3 2 4 6 3 7 2 5 Iban 3 6 5 3 3 0 2 0 Chinese 4 3 1 3 4 0 1 5 Bidayuh 0 1 1 3 1 0 6 Orang Ulu 2 0 1 0 0 0 3 Total 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 5 1 1 7 69 Notes: Two Malay/Melanau seats were won uncontested by the BN. Hence, the total number of state constituencies are 71.Extracted from Election Commission Malaysia (2008, p.89-101) Aliran Monthly : Vol.31(3) Page 4 Larry SngSngLarry James Masing JeripJeripJerip ral Iban voters in these constitu- lem to the ruling party if the BN tested the seat in 2001 on a PBDS encies. fails to deliver its promised total ticket (now deregistered) when he of RM75 million worth of projects replaced his father, Sng Chee Hua. But the swelling dissatisfaction that it pledged to the electorate in He stood on a PRS ticket in May among Iban voters over their con- 2009 (The Star, 19 June 2009). Ad- 2006 but was expelled from the tinued marginalisation and de- ditionally, the prospect of Nicho- party in 2007 following an inter- nial of property rights to NCR las Bawin contesting again in nal leadership crisis, which saw land could keep the two Iban seats Batang Ai in the forthcoming elec- the party split into two factions in the opposition fold with possi- tion also spells trouble for the rul- with him leading a rival faction bly an additional three seats: ing party. (Borneo Post, 28 January 2011, p.1). Batang Ai, Kemena and Pelagus. Despite being partyless, Larry was Another problem seat for BN is retained as State Assistant Minis- In 2006, the BN faced a stiff chal- Kemena.