LATIN AMERICA AND THE NEW GLOBAL ORDER GLOBAL THE NEW AND AMERICA LATIN Antonella Mori Do, C. Quoditia dium hucient. Ur, P. Si pericon senatus et is aa. vivignatque prid di publici factem moltodions prem virmili LATIN AMERICA AND patus et publin tem es ius haleri effrem. Nos consultus hiliam tabem nes? Acit, eorsus, ut videferem hos morei pecur que Founded in 1934, ISPI is THE NEW GLOBAL ORDER an independent think tank alicae audampe ctatum mortanti, consint essenda chuidem Dangers and Opportunities committed to the study of se num ute es condamdit nicepes tistrei tem unum rem et international political and ductam et; nunihilin Itam medo, nondem rebus. But gra? in a Multipolar World economic dynamics. Iri consuli, ut C. me estravo cchilnem mac viri, quastrum It is the only Italian Institute re et in se in hinam dic ili poraverdin temulabem ducibun edited by Antonella Mori – and one of the very few in iquondam audactum pero, se issoltum, nequam mo et, introduction by Paolo Magri Europe – to combine research et vivigna, ad cultorum. Dum P. Sp. At fuides dermandam, activities with a significant mihilin gultum faci pro, us, unum urbit? Ublicon tem commitment to training, events, Romnit pari pest prorimis. Satquem nos ta nostratil vid and global risk analysis for pultis num, quonsuliciae nost intus verio vis cem consulicis, companies and institutions. nos intenatiam atum inventi liconsulvit, convoliis me ISPI favours an interdisciplinary and policy-oriented approach perfes confecturiae audemus, Pala quam cumus, obsent, made possible by a research quituam pesis. Am, quam nocae num et L. Ad inatisulic team of over 50 analysts and tam opubliciam achum is. Ute audam am eto termanu an international network of 70 ltorus cone norum pos ad nem sent fina, praet retem inata universities, think tanks, and di facchil istius in viveret auteres conderum dienteatquit research centres. In the ranking venihiliemus liciis Ahaet; horum nihilis egerit; ni consili issued by the University of Pennsylvania, ISPI placed first worldwide as the “Think Tank to Watch in 2020”. euro 12,00 LATIN AMERICA AND THE NEW GLOBAL ORDER Dangers and Opportunities in a Multipolar World edited by Antonella Mori © 2020 Ledizioni LediPublishing Via Alamanni, 11 – 20141 Milano – Italy www.ledizioni.it [email protected] Latin America and the New Global Order. Dangers and Opportunities in a Multipolar World Edited by Antonella Mori First edition: March 2020 The opinions expressed herein are strictly personal and do not necessarily reflect the position of ISPI. Print ISBN 9788855261883 ePub ISBN 9788855262255 Pdf ISBN 9788855262262 DOI 10.14672/55261883 Cover Image: Francesco Fadani ISPI. Via Clerici, 5 20121, Milan www.ispionline.it Catalogue and reprints information: www.ledizioni.it Table of Contents Introduction Paolo Magri.......................................................................................... 6 1. America First: The Death of Pan-Americanism Loris Zanatta................................................................................. 12 2. Europe and Germany on the Relaunch of EU-LAC Relations Gian Luca Gardini...................................................................... 31 3. China’s Engagement in Latin America: Prospects Still Short of Expectations? Mario Esteban, Ugo Armanini........................................... 51 4. The First Year of the Bolsonaro’s Foreign Policy Guilherme Casarões............................................................... 81 5. The Venezuelan Crisis and its Geopolitical Dimension Antonella Mori........................................................................... 110 6. Mexico’s New Foreign Policy: Between Pragmatism and Principism Rafael Velázquez Flores.................................................... 125 About the Authors.................................................................... 145 Introduction “Latin America is at a crossroads”. Scholars have used this trite catchphrase several times in the past. And after all, with the epidemic of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) morphing into a pandemic and going global, which countries and regions of the world cannot be said to be at a crossroads? Yet, this is all the more true for today’s Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region. The region is experiencing new transformations in political, economic, and societal terms. In turn, all these rapid changes are having an impact on how LAC countries shape their own foreign policies, and on how they adapt to the challenges of an increasingly multipolar world. First, Latin America is at a crossroads both politically and strategically. During the Cold War and beyond, LAC countries had two choices: either be loyal followers of the United States, or side with the socialist bloc headed by the Soviet Union. Of course, this was not always a clear choice. However, it could often determine the fate of governments, through coups, guerrillas, foreign interference, or mass protests. Today, the old world is gone and a new one has risen from its ashes. After the short hiatus of the 1990s and early 2000s, when Latin American countries were left with the US as their main partner (or opponent), and the EU was much further away, LAC countries today face a renewed “bipolar” competition between the US and China, with the EU at the margins. Beijing’s rising heft has been the subject of hundreds of articles. Most agree that China’s influence has shifted over time from pre-eminently Introduction 7 economic to more political, on par with Beijing’s newfound assertiveness on the world stage. At the same time, China’s tools for political influence have remained in large part economic and financial (such as debt financing), and this allows for sharp comparisons with another pre-eminently economic actor in terms of influence: the EU and its member states. As this Report will show, Brussels has not managed to properly leverage its economic heft in the region. Second, Latin American countries are (or, better, continue to be) at a crossroads in terms of political institutions, as they grapple with the benefits and costs of democracy, and are constantly tempted by autocratic setbacks or, to the very least, democratic retrenchment. The past few years have shown how hard it can be to preserve democracy in one of the regions that has been most prone to regime change since the Second World War, apart from Sub-Saharan Africa. In 2019, as unrest in Venezuela continued, protests against austerity and political corruption swept through South America, involving Argentina, Peru, Ecuador, Chile, Bolivia, and Colombia. The violent ousting of Bolivia’s then-President Evo Morales in November, following elections that according to the Organization of American States were “clearly manipulated”, shows how hard it can be to preserve and bolster democratic institutions in the region. Third, Latin America is at a crossroads economically. Much has changed since the end of the Cold War, but some things have remained the same. The LAC region today counts a number of countries whose rising economic status has been formally acknowledged. Three of them, Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico, are members of the G20, with Chile also a permanent guest of the summit. Brazil itself is the world’s ninth biggest economy, vying with Italy for eighth place. Moreover, despite persistent inequalities in income and wealth, many citizens are now much richer than they were in the recent past. Three decades after the end of the Cold War, Mexicans are now on average 34% richer in real terms, Brazilians 38%, and Argentines 61%. Such rapid 8 Latin America and the New Global Order improvements have taken place despite recurrent economic crises. After its 2001 default, Argentina remains constantly on the brink. Brazil experienced a prolonged recession between 2014 and 2016, followed by stagnation. Finally, Mexico’s growth is pretty steady, but Trump’s blunt tactics in trade renegotiations and the current oil price crash pose a challenge to a country marred by violence and disappointing structural reforms. In the face of all these changes, this Report asks two related questions. First, how are the United States, the EU, and China adapting their foreign policies to the old and new realities of the LAC region? Second, how are some of the main countries in the region (namely Brazil, Mexico, and Venezuela) responding, or contributing to determine such a constantly shifting scenario? There is no doubt that Trump’s election came with the expectation of a different US approach to the Latin American region. This is why in the first chapter Loris Zanatta asks: what has really changed over the past four years? How did Trump’s arrival affect the US stance towards Latin America? Or, to put it more bluntly: does the Trump administration actually have a specific foreign policy towards Latin America? During the election campaign, Trump railed against Latino migrants, pledged to build a wall along the border, and envisaged trade renegotiations with many countries. Four years on, it seems that the impression that the US President only has a short- term strategy vis-à-vis Latin America is well founded. This short-termism has had a profound impact on how each Latin American country has tried to cope with a neighbouring superpower that has become less and less predictable. While the US appear to have decided to devoid only a limited amount of time towards the region, Europe appears to be playing the long game. As Gian Luca Gardini argues, at the start of 2019 EU-Latin America relations appeared to have