SECURITIZING THE THREAT OF CLIMATE CHANGE: THE MEANING OF “CLIMATE CHANGE” TO DIFFERENT AUDIENCES WITHIN THE U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY ENTERPRISE by William Ezio David A Dissertation Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of George Mason University in Partial Fulfillment of The Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy Conflict Analysis and Resolution Committee: Committee Chair Graduate Program Director Dean, School for Conflict Analysis and Resolution Date: Spring Semester 2014 George Mason University Fairfax, VA Securitizing the Threat of Climate Change: The Meaning of “Climate Change” to Different Audiences within the U.S. National Security Enterprise A Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy at George Mason University by William Ezio David Master of Science National War College, 2005 Master of Arts and Science School of Advanced Military Studies Command and General Staff College, 1996 Master of Arts Boston University, 1991 Bachelor of Arts Davidson College, 1984 Director: Patricia Maulden, Professor School for Conflict Analysis and Resolution Spring Semester 2014 George Mason University Fairfax, VA DEDICATION To anyone who sees the Matrix for what it is, and refuses to go back to sleep. ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This project marks a milestone in a quest that I began ten years ago to understand why the institution to which I had dedicated a career of service seemed to focus on some threats while discounting others. I am indebted to the members of my committee— Patricia Maulden, Dan Rothbart, and Ed Maibach. They listened to my odd mix of ideas and helped me to find a way to move forward. I am especially thankful to Patricia for her guidance and patience, particularly when I subjected her to hours of national security jargon punctuated at times by the colorful language of a soldier. Most of all, I would like to thank Esther, Liam, and Ethan. Without their love, support, and patience, none of this would have been possible. iii TABLE OF CONTENTS List of Tables .................................................................................................................. viii List of Figures ................................................................................................................... ix List of Abbreviations ........................................................................................................ x Abstract ............................................................................................................................ xii CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION ............................................................................ 1 A Thirty-Year Ethnography Yields a Research Question ............................................... 1 The Path Ahead ............................................................................................................. 11 A Glimpse of the Destination ........................................................................................ 13 Paths I Will Not Follow ................................................................................................ 13 CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW ............................................................. 15 The National Security Enterprise .................................................................................. 17 Origins ....................................................................................................................... 17 An Establishment, System, or Complex .................................................................... 21 The Enterprise ............................................................................................................ 24 Conceptions of National Security ................................................................................. 28 The Realist Paradigm Takes Hold ............................................................................. 28 An Enterprise Resistant to Change ............................................................................ 32 The Interplay of Realism, Liberalism, and Idealism ................................................. 43 Efforts to Redefine National Security ....................................................................... 48 Climate Change and National Security ......................................................................... 61 Securitization Theory .................................................................................................... 77 Situating the Project in the Literature: A Summary ..................................................... 82 CHAPTER THREE: THEORY REVIEW .................................................................. 85 Why these Theories? ..................................................................................................... 86 Balance of Threat Theory .............................................................................................. 89 Summary .................................................................................................................... 89 iv Insights on Threat Meanings and Audiences ............................................................. 92 Three Streams Model .................................................................................................... 94 Summary .................................................................................................................... 94 Insights on Threat Meanings and Audiences ........................................................... 100 Social Identity Theory ................................................................................................. 104 Summary .................................................................................................................. 104 Insights on Threat Meanings and Audiences ........................................................... 113 Cultural Theory of Risk............................................................................................... 116 Summary .................................................................................................................. 116 Insights on Threat Meanings and Audiences ........................................................... 125 Situating the Theories in the Project: A Summary ..................................................... 127 CHAPTER FOUR: RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY ................... 130 A Research Design for Describing Discursive Complexity ........................................ 131 Methodology ............................................................................................................... 141 Research Cases ............................................................................................................ 142 Research Case #1: The Executive Branch .............................................................. 145 Research Case #2: Congress ................................................................................... 148 Research Case #3: National Security Experts ........................................................ 151 Sample Period, Data Sources, and Data Sampling...................................................... 153 The Executive Branch ............................................................................................. 155 Congress .................................................................................................................. 159 National Security Experts ........................................................................................ 159 Data Analysis .............................................................................................................. 160 Discourse Analysis: Frames and Framing .............................................................. 161 Analytic Framework ................................................................................................ 166 Analytic Process ...................................................................................................... 176 Merging Four Chapters: A Summary ......................................................................... 180 CHAPTER FIVE: FINDINGS.................................................................................... 183 Overview ..................................................................................................................... 184 The Executive Branch ................................................................................................. 187 Diagnostic Frames ................................................................................................... 188 Prognostic Frames ................................................................................................... 198 v Motivational Frames ................................................................................................ 209 Cognitive Frames ..................................................................................................... 216 Theoretical Insights ................................................................................................. 222 Congress ...................................................................................................................... 229 Diagnostic Frames ................................................................................................... 229 Prognostic Frames ................................................................................................... 240 Motivational Frames