DOCTORAL T H E SIS Stephen Mayowa Famurewa Maintenance Analysis and Modelling for Enhanced Railway Infrastructure Capacity Analysis and Modelling for Enhanced Railway Maintenance Famurewa Stephen Mayowa Department of Civil, Environmental and Natural Resources Engineering Division of Operation, Maintenance and Acoustics ISSN 1402-1544 Maintenance Analysis and Modelling for ISBN 978-91-7583-320-0 (print) ISBN 978-91-7583-321-7 (pdf) Enhanced Railway Infrastructure Capacity Luleå University of Technology 2015 Stephen Mayowa Famurewa Maintenance analysis and modelling for enhanced railway infrastructure capacity Stephen Mayowa Famurewa Division of Operation and Maintenance Engineering Lule˚a University of Technology Lule˚a, Sweden Printed by Luleå University of Technology, Graphic Production 2015 ISSN 1402-1544 ISBN 978-91-7583-320-0 (print) ISBN 978-91-7583-321-7 (pdf) Luleå 2015 www.ltu.se ABSTRACT Railway transportation is a sustainable mode of transportation for reasons of safety, cost, carbon emission and energy requirements. It has a notable role in economic expansion in terms of passenger and freight services. In recent years, there has been a continuous demand to increase the competitiveness of railway transport via quantity and quality of service delivered. For instance there is a growing need to shift a substantial volume of freight and passenger traffic to rail. To meet the demand for enhanced railway infrastructure capacity, large modification of the infrastructure, improvement of traffic planning process and improvement of mainte- nance and renewal process are required. The obvious solution would be capital expansion of infrastructure but this is a long-term cost-intensive approach for improving railway transport performance. This, therefore makes successive improvement of maintenance and renewal (M&R) process an ideal and feasible way of improving availability, capacity and service quality of existing railway infrastructure. This thesis addresses improvements in maintenance to enhance capacity and service quality through systematic maintenance analysis for effective planning and maintenance optimisation for efficient scheduling. This thesis is divided into two parts: the first part deals with maintenance analysis and the second addresses maintenance optimisation. Both parts are aimed at enhancing maintenance effectiveness by improving track possession utilisation and infrastructure integrity. The first part suggests assessment and analysis methods to support continuous improvement of railway infrastructure performance. It entails the use of historical opera- tion and maintenance data to identify, improve and eliminate weak links and bottlenecks. The second part deals with planning and scheduling of maintenance tasks from condition deterioration viewpoint. This part uses infrastructure condition data with model driven approaches to schedule maintenance tasks with the aim of ensuring efficient use of track possession time and maximisation of availability and capacity. First, a fuzzy inference system is developed for computing the integrity index or com- posite indicator to relate maintenance functions to capacity situation. This is a good measure of the M&R need on a line as imposed by operational profile, capacity consump- tion and adopted maintenance strategy. It provides additional information that can be used to support high level M&R decisions for enhanced capacity. Second, risk matrix and an adapted criticality analysis method are proposed for identifying weak links and critical assemblies/items that are bottlenecks limiting operational capacity and service iii quality. The focus is to address the problem of train mission interruption and reduced operational capacity. A pertinent result is classification of railway zones into different risk categories and a hierarchical list of improvement for the lower-level systems. Third, a methodology is developed and demonstrated to quantify maintenance needs through deterioration modelling and to optimally allocate possession time for remedial actions on track. A case study of geometry maintenance is used to demonstrate the approach. The approach suggests a practical tamping plan with optimum allocation of track possession time, while track geometry quality is retained within specified limits. The methodology is extended to stochastic simulation of track geometry quality and in- tegrated into a possession scheduling routine. The outcome of the proposed approach demonstrates that optimisation of tamping cycle length and shift duration, as well as tamping process improvement present opportunities for improved utilisation of posses- sion time. Fourth, a short term maintenance scheduling model is developed to efficiently use available train-free periods for repair of inspection remarks such that availability and capacity are optimised. This model supports efficient scheduling of maintenance works that are not accommodated in the long-term maintenance plan. The outcome shows that an effective inspection plan and efficient scheduling model can be integrated to reduce capacity loss due to infrastructure condition. Finally, the maintenance analysis methods and decision support models presented in this thesis are practical and feasible short-term plans for making maintenance more effective to enhance railway infrastructure availability, capacity and service quality. KEYWORDS: maintenance improvement, railway infrastructure, availability, capacity, quality of service, bottlenecks, track possession time, tamping, optimisation, maintenance performance indicators, planning and scheduling, asset integrity, inspection iv ACKNOWLEDGMENT The research work presented herein was carried out between Aug. 2010 and Feb. 2015 at the division of Operation and Maintenance Engineering, Lule˚a University of Technology and Lule˚a Railway Research Centre (JVTC). The interest and financial support of the Swedish Transport Administration (Trafikverket) has been the means to this end. Foremost, I would like to express my profound gratitude to my supervisor Prof. Uday Kumar who placed great confidence in my capability to undergo this research work. His mentorship and guidance have contributed greatly to this accomplishment. I would also like to appreciate my assistant supervisor Dr. Matti Rantatalo for sharing his time and experience with me. I am thankful to Dr. Arne Nissen, Prof P-O Larsson Kr˚aik, Lars Wikberg, Matthias Asplund, Anders Backman and other personnel of Trafikverket for providing the required data and information, and for sharing their experiences with me. I wish to appreciate Prof. Jan Lundberg, Dr. Behzad Ghodrati, Dr. Alireza Ahmadi, Dr. Aditya Parida, Dr Phillip Tretten and other faculty members for their support during this research work. I would like to say thank you to Christer Stenstr¨om, Amparo Morant, Hussan Hamodi and all other colleagues at the division of operation and maintenance engineering. I would like to thank Dr. Xin Tao and Dr. Musa Idris for their fruitful discussions. I would like to acknowledge Selin J¨onsson in place of her late father Jens, who was a close friend. Great thanks are due to my wife Abiola, and our children Jeremiah and Joanna for their understanding and unflinching support. I am very grateful to my parents Mr and Mrs Fa- murewa, and my brothers Sunday and Ayodele and their families for their invaluable roles in this achievement. I am using this opportunity to appreciate the wonderful brethren who have supported us with prayers and encouraging words, Mr. Obudulu Ogonna, Dr. Awe Samuel, Dr. Leif Berglund, Mr. Fafiola Yinka, James Akinola, Andrews Omari, Esi Nunoo, Gbenga Omoniyi, Niyi Abiri and their families. Finally, all of my help comes from God, the eternal creator and giver of wisdom and grace for this time and in the eternal life. Stephen Mayowa Famurewa February 2014 Lule˚a, Sweden v vi LIST OF APPENDED PAPERS PAPER 1 Famurewa, M. S., Stenstr¨om, C., Asplund, M., Galar D., Kumar, U. (2014). Compos- ite indicator for railway infrastructure management. Journal of Modern Transportation 22(4), 214—224. PAPER 2 Famurewa, M. S., Rantatalo, M., Asplund, M., Parida, A., Kumar, U. (2014). Mainte- nance analysis for continuous improvement of railway infrastructure performance. Struc- ture and Infrastructure Engineering 11(7), 957–969. PAPER 3 Famurewa, M. S., Xin T., Rantatalo, M., Kumar, U. (2013). Optimisation of mainte- nance track possession time: a tamping case study. Institution of Mechanical Engineers. Proceedings. Part F: Journal of Rail and Rapid Transit, 229(1), 12—22. PAPER 4 Famurewa, M. S., Juntti, U., Nissen, A., Kumar, U. (2014). Augmented utilisation of possession time: analysis for track geometry maintenance. Institution of Mechanical Engineers. Proceedings. Part F: Journal of Rail and Rapid Transit (Accepted for Pub- lication). PAPER 5 Famurewa, M. S., Nissen, A., Kumar, U. (2015). Analysis and possession scheduling of maintenance tasks: a case study of conditional failures on Swedish iron ore line. (Sub- mitted for publication) LIST OF OTHER PAPERS 1. Famurewa, M. S., Asplund, M. Galar, D., Kumar, U. (2012). Implementation of performance based maintenance contracting in railway industries. International Journal of Systems Assurance Engineering and Management, 4(3), 231-240. vii 2. Famurewa, M. S., Asplund, M., Rantatalo, M., Kumar, U. (2013). Maintenance improvement: an opportunity for railway infrastructure capacity enhancement. In: 10th International Heavy Haul Association Conference, New Delhi, India. 3. Famurewa, S. M., Xin T., Rantatalo, M. and Kumar, U.