FALL 2008 Volume 20, No. 3 In this issue: THOUGHTS and OBSERVATIONS EDITORIAL Minsk’s Own Version of ’Fathers and Sons’ — p. 15 Big Stakes in Belarus’ Polls — p. 2 Belarus Prepares for Parliamentary Elections — p. 16 FEATURES Lukashenka Signs Restrictive Media Law — p. 17 Open Letter to the Belarusian People— p. 3 Why Did Lukashenka Pardon No Rewards for Lukashenka — p. 3 His Toughest Opponent? — p. 18 Helsinki Commission Hearings Election for Leverage with EU — p. 19 On Elections in Belarus — p. 4 Assessing the Minsk Explosion — p. 21 Sen. McCain: His Views on Belarus — p. 6 Belarus Reponds Cautiously to Belarusian Statehood in the System Georgian Crisis — p. 23 Of International Relations — p. 7 U.S. Drops Some Sanctions — p. 24 Missile Defense Front Lines — p. 9 NEWS BRIEFS — p. 25 BELARUS’ FORUM BELARUS ABROAD It’s Time to Demonstrate Power — p. 10 Notes from the Convention — p. 28 ECONOMY Dialogues on Belarusan Identity Belarus’ Privatization Plan Reveals In Diaspora Generations — p. 28 Change in Thinking — p. 12 Resolution of the 28th Convention — p. 29 CHORNOBYL LEGACY Center for Belarusan Studies — p. 29 Sharapova to Donate $210,000 Prague: Rally in Support of Boycott — p. 30 for Chornobyl Victims — p. 13 MEDIA WATCH - Press Review ’Chornobyl Child’ Causes International Stir — p. 13 ”Last Dictator” Caught Between SPORTS East and West — p. 31 Beijing Olympics Results — p. 13 Belarus and Ukraine Are Playing BATE Barysau in Champions’ League — p. 14 Their Cards Very Carefully — p. 32 United Democratic Forces — the main coordinating body of the Belarusian opposition — have half-heartedly withdrawn from the boycott. But, because of these contradictory moves, EDITORIAL the opposition’s election campaign lacks vigor and passion. The only hope of the opposition seems to be in the circula- ting rumors that Lukashenka, in order to invite a positive Big Stakes in Belarus’ Polls assessment of the elections from the West, will allow some opposition candidates to be ”appointed” to the 110-seat The upcoming legislative elections in Belarus on Septem- Chamber of Representatives. ber 28 may be another meaningless exercise in simulated However, regardless of the election results, it appears democracy, as were those in 2004 and 2000, but this time stakes that Belarusian opposition parties are poised to undergo seem to be much higher than previously for both the ruling serious crises in the wake of the vote. Because this election regime and the opposition. And for the West as well. campaign has clearly shown that there is a serious generation Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka sent an gap in the Belarusian opposition between leaders and rank- unambiguous signal in an interview with The Financial Times and-file activists, which increasingly affects the opposition’s and Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung on September 19 that political strategy. he wants the West to recognize these polls as more or less The West’s stake in these Belarusian elections seems to democratic. And it is fairly comprehensible why. be quite significant, too. It is apparent that the West is very In the wake of Russia’s war with Georgia, Lukashenka interested in some democratic progress in Belarus in order must realize that his policy of integration with his eastern to give the Lukashenka regime a slightly higher score than neighbor may soon be facing a crucial dilemma — either during previous election campaigns. The temptation to drag to steer Belarus toward full independence from Russia Belarus somewhat further from Russia — which has been (which means losing most, if not all, of Russia’s subsidies obviously rekindled by Lukashenka’s reluctance to follow and benefits bestowed upon the Belarusian economy) or Moscow in its recognizance of Abkhazia and South Ossetia to surrender part of the country’s economic and political — is strong. Therefore, if the upcoming elections are not too sovereignty in exchange for staying in power in Minsk for blatantly rigged, we may witness a sort of about-face in the some more time. When the newly resurgent Russia did not West’s approach to Lukashenka. hesitate to use tanks in Georgia, why can’t Moscow now Jan Maksymiuk, Deputy Editor use economic leverage in Belarus for asserting its influence in the ”near abroad”? But to balance his ”eastern vector” of Belarusian politics From the Publisher with a ”Western one” Lukashenka needs to make some democratic concessions in order to break the 12-year-long Another tightly manipulated and fatally flawed election political isolation in the West. took place in Belarus. The regime will score another ‘elegant’ According to Lukashenka, by allowing the opposition to victory, this time possibly gaining some undeserved approval be represented on district election commissions, he made in the West, weary of the lack of progress of democracy in enough progress on the path toward a democratic electoral Belarus. Both the EU and the United States government process to earn the West’s appreciation. The opposition, may tacitly accept the election results, disregarding the however, is of a different opinion. progressive emasculation of the opposition political par- According to the opposition, election falsifications essen- ties, total state control of the media, prohibition of public tially take place at the level of local election commissions, gatherings, blatant stacking of the electoral commissions which are in total control of the authorities. Therefore, the while disallowing independent observers. The crushing opposition argues, the progress in democratization in Belarus of demonstrations and liquidating attempts to organize by is illusionary. Besides, there is no mechanism in place for NGOs and the trade unions, coupled with summary jailing monitoring the security of ballot boxes during early voting or of democratic activists, have become tolerated norms by even verifying the voters lists by opposition representatives states and bodies interested in improving diplomatic and or international observers. In other words, the September trade relations. 28 elections in Belarus are business as usual. —————— These are the main reasons why some leaders of the op- The Belarus Democracy Reauthorization Act of 2008 position initially opted to boycott the vote. But they were not (H.R. 5970) is a needed, albeit small measure in support of heeded by rank-and-file activists, who managed to register whatever democracy may exist in Belarus. Contacting your as candidates and chose to campaign even in such an unfa- Representatives is key for the bill’s passage this year. vorable election environment. There are many arguments —————— put forward against the boycott but the most essential one The list of the more generous contributors to our pub- boils down to the conclusion that the boycotts of the 2000 lication has grown through the addition to it of Alla Orsa and 2004 elections by the opposition have proven totally Romano, Irene Kalada-Smirnov and Kola Romano. The ineffective. appreciated annual contribution by BNR Rada helps us to Given such an insubordination among their ranks, the reach many political figures worldwide. BELARUSIAN REVIEW Fall 2008 No Rewards for Lukashenka By TransitionsOnLine FEATURES It’s too early to ease the pressure on Belarus’ authoritarian regime. Dmitry Medvedev is facing mounting criticism for OPEN LETTER reneging on a European Union-brokered cease-fire as Russian troops continue to occupy Georgia. A man once TO THE BELARUSIAN PEOPLE seen by Brussels and Washington as a moderate heir to by the President of the BNR Rada Vladimir Putin – “a smart guy who understood the issues very well,’’ as a smiling George W. Bush said of Medvedev in July – may be shaping up to be more dangerous than his Dear Belarusian countrymen, predecessor. As you must have noticed, I seldom address my open But the president of Belarus thinks Medvedev is doing letters to you - I do it only when I believe that your lives a fine job. Russia’s repulse of Georgian forces in South and the Belarusian state are in great danger. Today I write to Ossetia and subsequent incursions into Georgia were you in connection with the events in Georgia and Alexander handled “carefully and nicely,” President Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s intention to sign new military agreements Lukashenka was quoted as telling the Russian leader at a with Moscow. meeting in Sochi. At a time when the entire democratic world condemned Lukashenka also met this week with the leaders of Moscow’s aggression against Georgia, Lukashenka traveled Georgia’s two breakaway regions and condemned Tbilisi’s to meet with Russia’s President, not to speak up in defense armed aggression in its territory of South Ossetia. of the wronged sovereign state, but on the contrary, to con- The Belarusian president is an exemplary breed of lapdog gratulate him. He called Russia’s aggressive action ‘beauti- when it comes to the Kremlin. Unlike other former Soviet ful’. Unfortunately, I observe that some of you instead of republics that cherish their independence, Lukashenka expressing outrage at this assessment of events in Georgia, has virtually cleaved his country to Russia. Belarus is believe the Kremlin’s propaganda and consider its actions not queuing up behind Ukraine and Georgia for NATO reasonable and acceptable. membership. It’s the only former Soviet republic in Europe And that is not all! not in the Council of Europe, but it is a loyal member of the Alexander Lukashenka pledges to conclude new “defen- lifeless Commonwealth of Independent States. For as long sive agreements” with Moscow in your name, in the name of as Lukashenka stays entrenched in power, little is likely to the silenced Belarusian people, who are not free to express change in this vestige of the Soviet Union. their own judgment on this or any other crucially important Yet not everything is ideal in this relationship. subject. These agreements will again draw our nation into Lukashenka is squeezed between East and West, both foreign wars, making Belarus the first victim of Russia’s geographically and politically, and sometimes it hasn’t geopolitical ambitions.