Final Report of the Select Committee on the Future of Public Higher Education in Vermont The National Center for Higher Education Management Systems April 9, 2021 Select Committee on the Future of Public Higher Education in Vermont - Final Table of Contents Executive Summary .................................................................................................................................................. 1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................................................... 9 The Work of the Select Committee ......................................................................................................................... 11 The Ends to be Served—State Goals and Student Needs ........................................................................................ 12 Document Review................................................................................................................................................... 13 An Overview of the Quantitative Evidence ............................................................................................................. 15 The Pool of Potential Students ................................................................................................................................... 15 College-Going Rates ................................................................................................................................................... 17 Enrollments by Institutional Sector ............................................................................................................................ 19 In- and Out-Migration of Students ............................................................................................................................. 21 Student Success .......................................................................................................................................................... 22 Affordability to Students ............................................................................................................................................ 24 Education Attainment ................................................................................................................................................ 27 Income Levels ............................................................................................................................................................. 28 Employment Patterns ................................................................................................................................................. 30 In- and Out-Migration of Workers .............................................................................................................................. 34 Impact on Communities ............................................................................................................................................. 35 Financing the Vermont State Colleges ....................................................................................................................... 36 Educational Productivity ............................................................................................................................................ 38 The Effects of Tuition Dependency ............................................................................................................................. 43 Stakeholder Engagement Activities ........................................................................................................................ 46 Summary Observations ........................................................................................................................................... 49 Criteria for Solutions ............................................................................................................................................... 50 Achieving the Goals Related to Student Needs .......................................................................................................... 51 Achieving the Goals Related to State Needs .............................................................................................................. 52 Recommendations .................................................................................................................................................. 53 1. The Need for Urgency ............................................................................................................................ 53 2. Articulating Statewide Goals ................................................................................................................. 55 3. Structure and Mission ............................................................................................................................ 56 4. Coordination of Administrative Services ................................................................................................ 75 5. Resource Allocation ............................................................................................................................... 78 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems Select Committee on the Future of Public Higher Education in Vermont - Final 6. Physical Spaces ...................................................................................................................................... 90 7. Affordability ........................................................................................................................................... 92 8. Economic Development ......................................................................................................................... 99 9. Accountability ........................................................................................................................................ 99 10. Adult Career and Technical Education (CTE) and Adult Education and Literacy (AEL) ........................ 101 Implementation Steps ...........................................................................................................................................102 Appendix A. Peer Selection Methodology ..............................................................................................................112 Appendix B. Data Exhibits ......................................................................................................................................116 Appendix C. Overview of Reports and Recommendations Issued by Stakeholder Groups .....................................134 Appendix D. Members of the Select Committee on the Future of Public Higher Education in Vermont .................138 List of Figures Figure 1. Isolating the Structural Component of VSC’s Total Operating Deficit from the Fiscal Impact of COVID-19 ................................................................................................................................. 5 Figure 2. Schedule for Reducing VSC’s Structural Deficit ....................................................................................... 5 Figure 3. State Investments in Transformation and Ongoing Support at VSC to Address the Structural Deficit ... 5 Figure 4. Summary of Total State and Federal Investments in VSC in FY 2022 ...................................................... 6 Figure 5. State Investments in Transformation and Ongoing Support at VSC ........................................................ 7 Figure 6. Vermont Public and Private High School Graduates ............................................................................. 16 Figure 7. Projected Percent Change in Population of Adults Aged 25-64, 2010-2030 ......................................... 17 Figure 8. Percent of High School Graduates Going Directly to College, 2018 ...................................................... 18 Figure 9. Undergraduate Enrollment Age 25-49 as a Percent of Population Age 25-49 with Less than an Associate’s Degree, Fall 2017 ................................................................................................................ 18 Figure 10. Enrollment at Vermont Postsecondary Institutions by Sector, 2019 .................................................... 19 Figure 11. Undergraduate Enrollment of Vermont Residents, 2019 ...................................................................... 20 Figure 12. VSC Undergraduate Enrollment by County, 2019 ................................................................................. 21 Figure 13. Migration of First-Time Degree/Certificate-Seeking Students, Fall 2018 .............................................. 22 Figure 14. Top 10 Destinations for Vermont Residents, by State, 2018 ................................................................. 22 Figure 15. Outcomes at 8 Years of First-Time Students in 2011-12 ....................................................................... 23 Figure 16. Undergraduate Awards per 1,000 Population Age 18-44 with No College Degree, 2017-18 ............... 24 Figure 17. Average In-State Tuition & Fee Charges, 2017-18, Public Research Universities .................................. 25 Figure 18. Average In-State Tuition & Fee Charges, 2017-18, Public Comprehensive Institutions ........................ 25 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems Select Committee on the Future of Public Higher Education in