Dealing with a Rising Power: Turkey’s Transformation and its Implications for the EU Svante Cornell, Gerald Knaus, Manfred Scheich Dealing with a Rising Power: Turkey’s Transformation and its Implications for the EU Dealing with a Rising Power: Turkey’s Transformation and its Implications for the EU Svante Cornell, Gerald Knaus, Manfred Scheich CREDITS Centre for European Studies Cover design: RARO S.L. Layout: Victoria Agency Printed in Belgium by Drukkerij Jo Vandenbulcke Centre for European Studies Rue du Commerce 20 Brussels, BE – 1000 The Centre for European Studies (CES) is the political foundation of the European People’s Party (EPP) dedicated to the promotion of Christian Democrat, conservative and like-minded political values. For more information please visit: www.thinkingeurope.eu This publication receives funding from the European Parliament. © Centre for European Studies 2012 Photos used in this publication: Centre for European Studies 2012 The European Parliament and the Centre for European Studies assume no responsibility for facts or opinions expressed in this publication or their subsequent use. Sole responsibility lies on the author of this publication. 2 Dealing with a Rising Power: Turkey’s Transformation and its Implications for the EU About the CES The Centre for European Studies (CES), established in 2007, is the political foundation of the European People’s Party (EPP). The CES embodies a pan-European mindset, promoting Christian Democrat, conservative and like-minded political values. It serves as a framework for national political foundations linked to member parties of the EPP, with 25 foundations currently members. The CES takes part in the preparation of EPP political platforms and programmes. It organises seminars and training on EU policies and on the process of European integration. The CES also contributes to formulating EU and national public policies. It produces research studies and books, electronic newsletters, policy briefs, and the twice-yearly European View journal. Its research activities are divided into six clusters: party structures and EU institutions, economic and social policies, EU foreign policy, environment and energy, values and religion, and new societal challenges. Through its papers, conferences, authors’ dinners and website, the CES offers a platform for discussion among experts, politicians, policymakers and the European public. 3 Dealing with a Rising Power: Turkey’s Transformation and its Implications for the EU Table of Contents Introduction .................................... 5 Cause for Concern? The Transformation of Turkey’s Internal Politics and Foreign Policy Svante Cornell ................................... 8 Regime Change in the Court Room: EU Soft Power and Civil-Military Relations in Turkey Gerald Knaus ................................... 70 A Sceptical Commentary on the Possibility of Turkey’s Accession Manfred Scheich ............................... 120 KEYWORDS Turkey - European Union - Enlargement - Accession process - Military - Justice and Development Party (AKP) 4 Dealing with a Rising Power: Turkey’s Transformation and its Implications for the EU Introduction1 The European Union and Turkey have a long-standing and complicated relationship. Turkey became an associate member of the EU’s predecessor, the European Economic Community, in 1963 and applied for full membership in 1987. After signing a Customs Union agreement with the EU in 1995, Turkey was granted candidate status in 1999. Although membership negotiations began in 2005, they have recently ground to a halt. At the time of writing, March 2012, 18 areas of negotiation, or chapters, have been blocked. Of these, the EU has completely frozen eight because Turkey has not ratified a customs agreement with the EU and is barring traffic from the Republic of Cyprus to its ports and airports. Both German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Former French President Nicolas Sarkozy have called for Turkey to have a privileged partnership with the EU, rather than full membership. Debates on the desirability of Turkey’s accession have been held against a backdrop of the country’s rapid economic growth—a 9% rise in GDP in 2010 has made Turkey the world’s fifteenth largest economy—and its growing assertiveness on the international stage. In order to explore the complexity of the EU–Turkey relationship at the beginning of the second decade of the twenty-first century, the Centre for European Studies (CES) has commissioned authors Svante Cornell and Gerald Knaus to provide their views of recent developments in Turkey and its position vis-à-vis the EU and countries in the Middle East. In addition, the CES asked Manfred Scheich to provide a brief commentary on European and Turkish identities. 1 The CES would like to thank Svante Cornell for suggesting the title for this study. 5 Dealing with a Rising Power: Turkey’s Transformation and its Implications for the EU Both Svante Cornell and Gerald Knaus appreciate how far Turkey has come in transforming its political system. These two authors have diverging views, however, on the role of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) led by Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Knaus’s overview of the military’s role illustrates the subtle regime change which the country has undertaken. Military thinking has been the backbone of the Kemalist republic, and civilian governments have been tolerated as long as they did not overstep the boundaries of the secular republicanism embodied by the armed forces. The military has in effect ruled without governing in modern Turkey but the simultaneous impact of the AKP’s rise to power and the prospect of EU membership have radically changed the balance of power between the military and other political actors, thus bringing Turkey closer to Western democratic standards. For Cornell, changes in Turkey’s foreign policy mimic the changes in the AKP. The party’s first term in office (2002–7) was considered a breath of fresh air at home and abroad, and generated an image of a modernising party in the mould of European Christian Democrats. Its second term (2007–11) proved to be much more controversial. At home, heavy- handed moves brought the AKP’s democratic credentials into question. In the international arena, Turkey gained a much higher profile that has sometimes confounded its traditional European and NATO allies. Cornell argues that European analysis of the AKP has not kept up with facts on the ground. He sees the recent turn against judicial independence and freedom of the press as signs that the AKP is moving away from democratic reforms and away from liberal democracy. Furthermore, the collapse of its ‘zero problems with the neighbours’ approach to 6 Dealing with a Rising Power: Turkey’s Transformation and its Implications for the EU international relations leaves Turkey in dire need of a new foreign policy concept. Cornell implicitly agrees with Knaus that the Turkish regime has evolved and that successive civilian governments have progressively gained the upper hand over the military. Cornell also believes, however, that the Turkish government has not used its new-found confidence to consolidate democratic institutions. The question is whether Erdoğan and the AKP are merely manoeuvring to solidify their presence at the head of Turkey’s institutions, thus turning a regime controlled by the military into one led by a single political party. Regardless of Turkey’s democratic evolution, the country is finding its place as an autonomous power in the international arena. All this time, the EU has been grading Turkey against membership criteria. As Scheich argues, perhaps the issue today is whether Turkey’s ambition is still to be an EU member or whether it is becoming an independent regional power on its own terms. This publication reflects views of academics and experts. This publication does not express the views of the European People’s Party or the Centre for European Studies. 7 Dealing with a Rising Power: Turkey’s Transformation and its Implications for the EU Cause for Concern? The Transformation of Turkey’s Internal Politics and Foreign Policy Svante Cornell Executive Summary .............................. 9 Introduction ................................... 10 Turkey’s Accession and The EU’s Role in the World .. 12 Turkey’s Transformation ......................... 17 The AKP’s Undulations ....................... 18 The Opposition’s Decline – and Rebirth? ......... 29 Turkey’s Foreign Policy under the AKP ............. 33 The AKP and “Strategic Depth”. 34 From Mediating to Taking Sides, 2007-2010 ...... 36 Making Sense of the Foreign Policy Shift: Pragmatism, Overextension and Ideology ........ 42 The Collapse of “Zero Problems”: Towards a Reassessment? ............................ 48 Conclusions ................................... 52 Recommendations ............................. 53 Bibliography ................................... 56 8 Dealing with a Rising Power: Turkey’s Transformation and its Implications for the EU Executive Summary In 2012, 10 years after the Justice and Development Party (AKP) came to power, Turkey has witnessed multiple transformations. Most important, Turkey has experienced an economic boom, boosting its self-confidence as a regional power. Given Europe’s current crisis, Turkey is, in one sense, a more attractive partner for the EU than ever before. Yet the likelihood of Turkish membership of the EU also appears to be more distant than ever. The atmosphere of hope that surrounded the first few years of the AKP’s tenure, when