1 PUSHING THE BOUNDARIES: THE GREATER IMPACT OF TAIWAN’S DEMOCRATIZATION ON CROSS-STRAIT AND SINO-AMERICAN RELATIONS A thesis presented to the faculty of the College of Arts and Sciences of Ohio University In partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree Master of Arts Timothy S. Rich June 2005 2 This thesis entitled PUSHING THE BOUNDARIES: THE GREATER IMPACT OF TAIWAN’S DEMOCRATIZATION ON CROSS-STRAIT AND SINO-AMERICAN RELATIONS BY TIMOTHY S. RICH has been approved for the Department of Political Science and the College of Arts and Sciences by Takaaki Suzuki Associate Professor of Political Science Leslie A. Flemming Dean, College of Arts and Sciences 3 Rich, Timothy S. M.A. June 2005. Political Science Pushing the Boundaries: The Greater Impact of Taiwan’s Democratization on Cross- Strait and Sino-American Relations (140 pp.) Director of Thesis: Takaaki Suzuki The democratization of the Taiwan has greatly altered the framework for cross-strait relations and complicated the relations both sides have with the United States. To capture these changes in Taiwan, a new game theoretic model is proposed. Using the example of the 1995-96 missile crisis, one can see that neither China nor the United States have altered their strategy to properly address these changes. After this game theoretic analysis, each party is viewed in depth to highlight the factors leading to the continued tense relations between Taiwan and China, including the role that America’s policy of “strategic ambiguity” has played. In conclusion, it is argued that each party has several means to decrease the tension across the straits through small alterations of the present policies. Furthermore, the US can encourage constructive cross-strait dialogue by altering its strategy closer to that of “strategic certainty” while attempting to get assurances from both sides. Approved: Takaaki Suzuki Associate Professor of Political Science 4 Table of Contents Page Abstract................................................................................................................................3 List of Figures..................................................................................................................... 6 List of Tables ...................................................................................................................... 7 Introduction......................................................................................................................... 8 Chapter One: Cross-Strait Conflict: A Game Theoretic Approach .................................. 12 Previous models............................................................................................................ 12 Strategic Models and Cross-Strait Conflict .................................................................. 15 The Missile Crisis ......................................................................................................... 22 The Election.................................................................................................................. 29 The Aftermath............................................................................................................... 31 Conclusion .................................................................................................................... 33 Chapter 2: Taiwan’s Path to Democracy .......................................................................... 37 History of Taiwan ......................................................................................................... 38 Reform and the Beginnings of Democratization .......................................................... 42 The Lee Era................................................................................................................... 48 Chen Shui-bian.............................................................................................................. 52 Complicating Cross-Strait Relations............................................................................. 54 Security Concerns ......................................................................................................... 58 Conclusion .................................................................................................................... 60 Chapter Three: Chinese Nationalism and the Taiwan Question....................................... 62 China’s Response to Democracy .................................................................................. 68 Chinese Nationalism ..................................................................................................... 72 Framing History to Frame the Present: China in Comparison...................................... 82 The Inevitable Conflict? ............................................................................................... 90 Conclusion .................................................................................................................... 92 Chapter Four: On the Road to Nowhere: US Foreign Policy and Taiwan........................ 95 History of US Involvement........................................................................................... 96 Domestic Pressures ..................................................................................................... 104 Policy Critique ............................................................................................................ 112 Conclusion .................................................................................................................. 113 Chapter Five: Prospects for Cross-Strait Peace .............................................................. 115 Taiwan......................................................................................................................... 116 China........................................................................................................................... 120 American Strategy for the Future ............................................................................... 124 Conclusion .................................................................................................................. 130 5 Works Cited .................................................................................................................... 132 6 List of Figures Figure Page 1. Three-Player Extended Game of Cross-Strait Interaction…………………………18 7 List of Tables Table Page 1. America’s Cross-Strait Policy……………………………………………………..99 2. Gallup Polls Regarding American Opinion of China 1979-2004………………...105 3. Countries with Formal Diplomatic Relations with the ROC by Year……………118 4. Countries that Supported the UN Petition to Seat the ROC……………………...119 8 Introduction In March 2004, Taiwan’s incumbent president Chen Shui-bian narrowly defeated Lien Chan in Taiwan’s closest presidential election to date, receiving only a few thousand votes more than his opponent. Despite cries by Lien Chan supporters that the election was invalid1 and several days of protests, both camps ultimately accepted the results. This exemplified that although there remains several problems in Taiwanese politics, democratic principles have become firmly rooted in Taiwanese society. In less than twenty years, the Republic of China (ROC) on Taiwan has transformed itself from a one- party authoritarian regime to a vibrant multiparty democracy. Although Taiwanese generally see these changes as positive, the democratization of Taiwan has led to greater complexity in cross-strait relations and America’s ability to maintain peace in the region. My thesis will focus on how democratization of Taiwan has altered cross-strait relations and the triangular relationship among the ROC, the PRC and the US. By looking at the island’s democratization from several aspects and methodologies, I will argue that, by creating electoral incentive for Taiwan to push its political boundaries in every way except declaring formal independence, these democratic changes have actually made the island less secure. In turn, these pushes for “breathing room” encourage the mainland to continue its militant form of Chinese nationalism which emphasizes a willingness to go to war to prevent Taiwanese independence. America’s hesitation to get further involved in cross-strait conflict has also left it with an ill-fitting strategy for deterrence in the contemporary setting. 1 Many supporters claimed that the assassination attempt on Chen the eve before the election tainted the results, some going as far as to claim that it was an orchestrated stunt intended to sway voters. 9 This thesis will be divided into two sections. The first chapter analyzes previous frameworks and models for analyzing US-ROC-PRC relations and argues that most of these fail to acknowledge Taiwan’s agency especially after democratization. Using a strategic interaction game theoretic model, I suggest that several factors in this triangular relationship have not been properly analyzed. Specifically, I assert that political appeals intended for Taiwanese consumption may be easily misconstrued by the mainland as a move towards creeping independence and thus lead to conflict. More importantly, I suggest that with the growth of Taiwanese nationalism, America’s traditional strategy of deterrence may be obsolete. To analyze this model, I use historical examples similar to the methods used in Analytic Narratives2, focusing specifically on the missile crisis of 1995-96 and supplementing this analysis