Far-right and Economy How can economy explain the success of the LSNS? The case study of the 2016 Slovak parliamentary election Marek Táborský (11447303) Supervisor: dhr. dr. Gijs Schumacher Master thesis Political Science Second reader: Mr. Matthijs Rooduijn Specialization: Political Economy June 29, 2018 Summary The aim of this master thesis is to address the research question 'How can economy explain the success of the LSNS?'. The paper tries to find an answer to this question by examining a specific case study, which is the parliamentary election held in Slovakia in 2016. In them – unexpectedly – the far-right party LSNS succeeded by gaining more than 8%, which was a significant increase in comparison with the previous election results in 2010 and 2012, when the party gained only 1.3% and 1.6%, respectively. For the purpose of answering the research question, the thesis focuses on the analysis of significance of selected socio-economic factors in relation to the preference of LSNS in the election under review at both micro and macro level. These assumptions are tested as five hypotheses which follow general trends in the choice of far-right parties or candidates in Europe. The findings of this thesis allows for characterizing a typical voter of LSNS. It was confirmed that a typical voter of the far-right party in Slovakia is predominantly manually-working, younger, male voter. The party was also most frequently chosen among first-time voters, which is in accordance with the theory of Lubbers et al. (2002). On the other hand, it was not confirmed that unemployment was a significant factor for the preference of LSNS. Findings at the individual level suggest that the anti-system sentiment associated with LSNS is not so strongly linked to the economic situation of its voters. This also relates to the fact that the general – nation-level – economic situation had improved significantly since the previous elections (in which the party failed) marked by a strong impact of the global financial crisis and the European debt crisis. It also agrees with the theory according to which the far-right benefits rather on socio-cultural issues (Allen, 2015). 2 Table of Contents Summary 2 Table of Contents 3 I. Introduction 4 II. Context of the Study 6 a. Far-right 6 b. LSNS 8 c. 2016 parliamentary election 11 III. Theoretical Background & Formulating Hypotheses 13 IV. Methodology & Research Design 18 V. Results 22 VI. Conclusion 28 References 30 3 Introduction The main topic of this diploma thesis is the relationship between far-right and economy. More specifically, the thesis, through a case study, examines major socio-economic factors and variables in relation to the choice of a far-right party. After the 2016 parliamentary election Slovakia was shaken by the suprising result of the far-right party called People's Party Our Slovakia (LSNS) which received more than 8% of the vote and 14 out of 150 seats in the National Council. Through the economic prism, in this paper, I am trying to find an answer to the major research question 'How can economy explain the success of LSNS?'. The aim is not to address the economic program of the party – it is not related to the nature of the paper and, moreover, according to data from exit poll, only 7.4% of the LSNS voters declared that the economic program was the reason they voted for the party. For comparison, this option was chosen on average by 20.6% of voters of other relevant parties. The goal is also not to analyze general reasons of the sudden increase of the party – in comparison with previous parliamentary elections in 2010 and 2012 – as this would be out of the scope of the paper itself but also of the topic of economy. Rather, the aim of the thesis is to analyze the party’s electorate in the 2016 election from an economic point of view, that is, to explain to what extent the selected economic factors have been significant in voting for the party at both micro and macro level, and how can these contribute to explaining the result of the party. LSNS is interesting for the case study because its neo-Nazi ideology is among the most radical in entire Europe. Moreover, it is the latest far-right party within the EU which entered national parliament. At the same time, there exist certain doubts that are also the greatest limit of this paper. In particular, the economy is only one factor in the choice of (not only) the far-right, and, moreover, its importance is a priori questionable, especially with regard to an extremist party. Therefore, economy alone cannot answer the question of what specifically caused the sudden increase in the support of far-right in Slovakia. Other, general, mostly social factors have been chosen to explain why the party has grown. For example, the "legitimization" of the party after the 2013 regional election, the general pre-campaign atmosphere, which I mention later on. However, combined with these general reasons, also certain economic factors could help the party to grow. That is why this thesis attempts to look deeper into the connection of economic aspects and LSNS voters. 4 My work with data in this paper will therefore be guided by economic hypotheses. I will try to find a link between economic factors and the choice of the party through the unique data from the exit poll. These will be complemented by a macro-analysis at the municipal and district level. The paper is structured into 5 main chapters. In the first chapter, I present the context of the study - that is, far-right in Slovakia, the LSNS, and the 2016 election. This means that I will deal with the development of the far-right scene in Slovakia in order to better approach the case study. In more detail, I will present the party itself as well as the socio-political-economic context of the 2016 parliamentary election. In the following chapter, I deal with the theoretical background where I also formulate specific hypotheses that emerge from the main theoretical concept that I am using here, and these are cleavages. Subsequently, I am going to explain the methodology used in this dissertation work. In this chapter, I detail what data or variables I use and for what specific purpose. The practical part of the diploma thesis follows. In this chapter, I test individual hypotheses, and analyze and interpret the results of the research. This is followed by conclusion which summarizes the thesis and answers the research question. 5 Context of the Study This chapter aims to deal closely with the case study itself. For this purpose, it describes the concept of the far-right both in the European and, more specifically, in the post-communist and Slovakian context. Next, this chapter also briefly touches on the party which is under review in this thesis. Finally, it also deals with the election that the thesis attempts to analyze. More specifically, I will detail contextual factors that could have influenced the overall outcome of the 2016 parliamentary election, as well as the outcome of the party under review, the LSNS. Far-right (in Europe & Slovakia) At the beginning – also for the correctness and purpose of the thesis itself – I start with the conceptualization of the term "far-right" in the context within which this diploma thesis operate, that is, the European context and, from more micro perspective, the post-communist and Slovakian context. The origin of the concept can be found in the study of fascism, and indeed political science was looking at what is now known as far-right through the prism of this term ("neo-fascism") for a long time after the Second World War. In the 1980s and especially in the 1990s, the third wave of right-wing extremism (Beyme, 1988) occured in Western Europe. It brought about an expansion of far-right but also right-wing populist movements and political parties. However, many of these parties had not built on the historical tradition and legacy of fascism (Ignazi, 2006). This wave was, according to Mudde (1996), after the Second World War, both politically and ideologically most successful. The right-wing extremism has become an important element within and outside the party system. The new movements and parties began to be called "the radical right", "the extreme right", "the far right", or "the populist radical right". The problems of contemporary conceptualization of the phenomenon of the far-right are related not only to historical changes, but also to the fact that the (varying) terminology is used not only for scientific but also for media and political purposes, often synonymously wrongly confused. The most commonly confused terms are "extremism", "radicalism", and 6 "populist radical right" (Kluknavská, 2012). While extremism can be described as an antithesis to democracy, radicalism challenges fundamental aspects of liberal democratic rules of governance, but does not necessarily require a change, or an exchange, of the political system (Eatwell, 2000). The term "populist radical right" is put forward by Mudde (2007) and refers to parties that combine elements of nativism, authoritarianism, and populism. The overwhelming and most used concept in the region of Central Eastern Europe is the term far- right (Kluknavská, 2012), which I am also using in this thesis. Among the major common characteristic features of far-right parties are, for instance, the rejection of the cosmopolitan society and immigration into European countries (Betz, 1994) or considering domestic political elites corrupt (Hainsworth, 2008). Mudde (2000) presented the combination of four ideological elements characterizing far-right parties - nationalism, xenophobia, law and order (strong state) and welfare chauvinism (the requirement for the state to guarantee that its social policy serves its "own people" and not immigrants).