Gordon Food Service Market Updates for April 16, 2021 Dairy | Eggs Large - No change Medium - No change Small - No change Retail demand mixed. Supplies of extra large and large well balanced and held confidently. Market steady to full steady. Dairy | Butter Butter- Up Cream inventories are continuing to tighten as ice cream production starts to compete for raw material and hits it's production stride. Retail sales show signs of decline, but overall are still healthy. With restaurants reopening food service distributors are still coming back to the buying table, but orders are still below expectations. Dairy | Cheese Barrel -Up Block -Up The CME Block market responded to the governments release of another billion dollars in the USDA Box program. Speculators feel this will have an effect on the markets for the short term but will not be sustainable for the long term. Grocery & Bakery | Soybean Oil A logistics bottleneck has added to an already tight supply situation. Limited availability of trucks, appointments and a backlog of packaging materials are creating delays in shipping. This comes amid a robust demand period with customers reopening and restocking their bare pantries. A piece of good news - the Brazilian crop has come to market and export orders have shifted from the U.S. to South America. This at least provides our supply chain a much needed break. With planting underway, we need to see good weather to help with yields for the next crop. Prices should remain firm given processors have placed most customers on allocation. Our current supply of beans to crush is established, and the inventory is tight. This won't change until the fall so the market costs will have a firm floor. As we get into the later spring and summer months, the fresh inputs into the market will be weather-based. Grocery & Bakery | Sugar Trade has been quiet and the supply picture hasn't changed much in several months. Both beet and cane production projections for the next crop are higher than the 19/20 campaign, leading to a stocks-to-use ratio just over 15% - this is a healthy carry level. Near term, transportation struggles and the surge in demand associated with reopening will tighten the supply chain for immediate shipments. Forward offerings for the new crop year are being shown at flat levels compared to today. Barring any inclement weather scenarios, offerings will likely remain steady until we get closer to harvest. Grocery & Bakery | Flour Planting projections for corn falling short of the trade's expectations has lifted corn and wheat prices, keeping animal feed ratios balanced. Wheat acreagewasdown compared to last year, but this was to be expected given the ample supply and better value propositionencouragingfarmers to switchto corn or soybeans. Flour prices have moved about 8% since the planting report was released and are back up near annual highs. Planting is now underway, which will bring focus to the weather and adjustments we may see in future USDA reports. Meat | Pork Slaughter is higher this week as packers work to take advantage of higher wholesale prices. Bone in butt prices are slightlyhigher this week. Boneless butts prices increased this week, high prices for boneless may slow down demand as this level.Loins prices are up moderately again this week and the deal of the pork complex. Rib prices continue to move higher the forecast is for increases to continue and slow down prior to Memorial Day. Belly prices this weak are higher, the market may have reached its peak and retreat into May. As the saying goes "High prices cure high prices" Breakfast sausage and hot dog raw material prices are higher and forecast to level out next week. Meat | Beef Weather-related issues both with producers and consumers have the boxed beef market in an interesting position. Harvest was down 100K last week from the average weekly runs all due to weather-related issues. The excess market-ready cattle will need to be pushed to production over the next few weeks increasing supply during a time when we historically experience reduced demand before the spring grilling season. We have yet to see the market react due to short boxed beef, but it will come soon and probably be a good portion of March as prices are too high for this time of year and increased supply will push prices lower. Middle meats have performed well on retail ads, however, high prices will put pressure on ad placements at retail and foodservice will follow. Look for opportunities on middle meats over the next few weeks. Grinds took a big dive after Super Bowl but are now up again due to short supply caused by last weeks weather events. Expect to see some softness until later into March. End cuts should come off some over the next few weeks and stay lower through most of the spring. Expect lower levels as we move into March. Thin meats and briskets should see good demand and higher prices as we move into March. There are still many large customers shopping brisket packages for the spring business. Poultry | Chicken The chicken market is stillextremely tight and we continue to see demand outweigh the supply that is available. The outlook is that we could see this situation continue through May. While you might think that the high market prices would lead to expansion on production the limited labor force is keeping this expansion to a minimum as they do not want to face a supply of birds that are not able to be processed.We are also being faced with a shortage on imported products as the Global supply of shipping containers is also tight. The production numbers have remained flat fromlast week, but we are ahead of where we were when plants were being shut down in 2020 with Covid. The demand could clearly support higher production numbers, but the birds and labor are keeping the numbers low.The total production remained at161million head for the second week in a row with lighter weights as only51% coming in the larger weight ranges versus running in the mid 50's. This reduction inproduction has pushed prices up on the breast market this week. The wing market remains inshort supply as Foodservice demand continues to seek out any and all product that is available. When you look at every cut on the market everything is either at a 52 week high or an all time high. This goes for white meat as well as dark meat right now. Breast and Tenders: The Jumbo Breast Meat market has found it's way up to$.1.80/lb for the week. The selectand medium markets were also able to climb some with the medium market at$1.88/lb and the Select all the way up to $2.49/lb. Line run Breast Tenders have climbed up to $1.98/lb. Buyers are simply having to pay over the market on just about everything if you want to secure the product. Wings: The shortage of wings remains and it is hard to say when this is going to end. As the market goes up the product that is produced is easily cleared. The Jumbo whole wings are at$2.73/lb,medium whole wings remained at$2.64/lb andsmall wings have gone up to $2.75/lb. The price on wings has not discouraged restaurants from offering them on the menu and with many still doing a large volume of take out the product remains in demand. Seafood | Finfish Cod, Alaskan 1x: Per Undercurrent News: The North Pacific Fishery Management Council announcedthat it had increasedthe 2021 TAC for Pacific cod in the Gulf of Alaska to 17,321 MT, allowingfora small directed fishery this year. For the next two years, scientistshave also advised acceptablebiological catches for Pacific codin the gulf of23,627 t and 38,141 t in 2021 and 2022 respectively. This is worth noting as TAC levels can onlybe set equal to or below the levels of ABC's recommended by scientists. Notethe GroundfishForum this last fall also stated that the global catches woulddecline by 7.8% to 365,000t led by a declinein US and Canadian landings from 160,0000 to 119,000 t whichbased on voume alone have a bigger impact on the fishery. With that said, to date the codcatcheshave been limitedin Alaskaand costs have been rising. Increased COVID cases resulted inplant shut downs for 14 days which alsoaffected the start of the pollock season then carried over to the cod fishery as well. Mandatoryquarantine has reallyimpacted the supply puttingpressure on costs for the 1x frozen market. Expect pricesto be elevated untilthefall and new season supply. * Cod, Atlantic 1x: Russian cod is also bearingthe weightof the reductionof cod out of Alaska. Currentlythe large 16-32 oz fillets have been short on the market and the next bestoptionwill be the 8/16 oz. Expectcosts and supply for largersizes to be an issue for the nextfew months For cod out of Canada the 6 oz. optionwill be short as the seasonwrapped up early with limited catchesof this size. Costs are stable currently. *Per Undercurrent News: Based on the announcement a week ago on the Newfoundlandfishery for cod. The Canadianfisheries minister announced that Canada and France had reached an agreement in principle in relationto the2021 quotafor the region off the southern coast of Newfoundland know as 3Ps The two countrieswill permita TAC of 1346 MT , a 50 % reduction from 2020 , butnot a totalclosure what was originally announced. This 50 % reductionof the TAC provides a 75% chance of somestockgrowth by 2023.