United States Department of Agriculture Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service Veterinary Services Science, Technology, An Assessment of the Risk Associated with the and Analysis Services Movement Turkeys to Market Into, Within, and Center for Epidemiology and Animal Health Out of a Control Area During a Highly 2150 Centre Avenue Pathogenic Avian Influenza Outbreak in the Building B Fort Collins, CO 80526 United States March 2017 FIRST DRAFT September 2017 SECOND REVIEW January 2018 THIRD REVIEW October 2018 FINAL REVIEW AND CLEARANCE A Collaboration between the Turkey Sector Working Group, the University of Minnesota’s Secure Food Systems Team, and USDA:APHIS:VS:CEAH UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE ANIMAL AND PLANT HEALTH INSPECTION SERVICE VETERINARY SERVICES CENTER FOR EPIDEMIOLOGY AND ANIMAL HEALTH Turkeys to Market Risk Assessment Suggested bibliographic citation for this report: Carol Cardona, Carie Alexander, Justin Bergeron, Peter Bonney, Marie Culhane, Timothy Goldsmith, David Halvorson, Eric Linskens, Sasidhar Malladi, Amos Ssematimba, Emily Walz, Todd Weaver, Jamie Umber. An Assessment of the Risk Associated with the Movement of Turkeys to Market Into, Within, and Out of a Control Area during a Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Outbreak in the United States. Collaborative agreement between USDA:APHIS:VS and University of Minnesota Center for Secure Food Systems. Fort Collins, CO. October 2018. 217 pgs. This document was developed through the Continuity of Business / Secure Food Supply Plans / Secure Poultry Supply project initiative. Related documents can be found at: https://www.aphis.usda.gov/aphis/ourfocus/animalhealth/sa_emergency_management/ct_fadprep _continuity_of_business Contributors: Carol Cardona, Professor, University of Minnesota (UMN) Carie Alexander, Veterinary Public Health and Preventive Medicine Resident, UMN Justin Bergeron, Veterinary Public Health and Preventive Medicine Resident, UMN Peter Bonney, Epidemiologist, UMN Marie Culhane, Associate Professor, UMN Timothy Goldsmith, Associate Professor, UMN David Halvorson, Professor Emeritus, UMN Eric Linskens, Researcher, UMN Sasidhar Malladi, Risk Analyst, UMN Amos Ssematimba, Epidemiologist, UMN Emily Walz, Risk Analyst, UMN Todd Weaver, Epidemiologist, USDA:APHIS:VS:CEAH Jamie Umber, Risk Analyst, UMN Acknowledgments: We thank the Turkey Sector Working Group for their support during the development of this risk assessment. Keywords: avian influenza, continuity of business, HPAI, market, outbreak, risk, turkey Questions or comments on data analysis, contact: Carol Cardona, DVM, PhD, DACPV, University of Minnesota College of Veterinary Medicine, Secure Food Systems, 651-253-2870 Email: [email protected] Page 2 of 238 Turkeys to Market Risk Assessment Contents 1 Abbreviations and Definitions ............................................................................................ 8 2 Executive Summary .......................................................................................................... 14 2.1 Likelihood of Turkey Flock Becoming Infected with HPAI via Components of Local Area Spread Resulting in Infected but Undetected Movement to Market ...................................... 15 2.2 Likelihood of Turkey Flock Becoming Infected with HPAI via Movements of People, Vehicles, or Equipment, Resulting in Infected but Undetected Movement to Market ........... 17 2.3 Likelihood of Turkey Flock Becoming Infected with HPAI via Load-out Crews, Vehicles, or Equipment .......................................................................................................................... 19 3 Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 21 4 Scope ................................................................................................................................. 23 4.1 Facilities Covered under this Risk Assessment ..................................................................... 23 4.2 Types of Movements Addressed under this Risk Assessment ............................................. 23 5 Overview of Data Analysis Approaches .......................................................................... 24 6 Significant Assumptions Used in the Risk Assessment ................................................ 26 7 Background and Industry Characterization: Turkeys to Market .................................... 28 7.1 Definition of the Grow-out and Harvest Process .................................................................... 28 7.1.1 Vertical Integration ...................................................................................................... 29 7.1.2 Service Technicians and Poultry Health Monitoring ................................................... 30 7.2 Overview of Major Steps in the Production and Processing of Turkeys for Market During Routine Operations ................................................................................................................ 30 7.2.1 House Preparation ...................................................................................................... 30 7.2.1.1 Litter Management Practices ....................................................................... 31 7.2.2 Brooder and Grow-Out Period Management .............................................................. 31 7.2.2.1 Ventilation .................................................................................................... 32 7.2.3 Load-Out ..................................................................................................................... 32 7.2.3.1 Transportation of Turkeys to Processing ..................................................... 33 7.2.3.2 Awaiting Processing ..................................................................................... 33 7.3 Overview of Current Disease Prevention and Biosecurity Efforts in Turkey Production ....... 33 7.3.1 Current Disease Prevention and Containment Measures in Grow-Out Operations During Normal (Non-Outbreak) Situations .................................................................. 34 7.3.2 Structural Biosecurity: Secured Farm Entry ............................................................... 34 7.3.3 Operational Biosecurity ............................................................................................... 35 7.3.3.1 People .......................................................................................................... 35 7.3.3.2 Feed Delivery ............................................................................................... 35 7.3.3.3 Sanitation Facilities on Farm........................................................................ 36 7.3.3.4 Cleaning and Disinfection (C&D) ................................................................. 36 7.3.3.4.1 Vehicles and Drivers .................................................................. 36 7.3.3.4.2 Equipment .................................................................................. 36 7.3.3.4.3 Water Supplies ........................................................................... 36 7.3.3.4.4 Housing Area ............................................................................. 37 7.3.3.4.5 Load-out ..................................................................................... 37 7.3.3.5 Animal, Pest, and Insect Control ................................................................. 37 7.3.3.6 Dead Bird Disposal ...................................................................................... 38 7.3.3.7 Manure and Litter Management ................................................................... 38 8 Hazard Identification: HPAI overview .............................................................................. 39 8.1 Agent ..................................................................................................................................... 39 8.1.1 Definition of Highly Pathogenic Notifiable Avian Influenza ......................................... 39 8.1.2 Host Range ................................................................................................................. 40 Page 3 of 238 Turkeys to Market Risk Assessment 8.2 Geographic Distribution of H5 and H7 HPAI .......................................................................... 41 8.3 Virus Shedding ....................................................................................................................... 42 8.4 Chemical and Physical Inactivation ....................................................................................... 42 8.5 Persistence of HPAI Virus in Manure and Other Media ........................................................ 43 8.6 Transmission .......................................................................................................................... 43 8.6.1 Vertical Transmission in Chickens and Turkeys ......................................................... 43 8.6.2 Transmission via Artificial Insemination in Turkeys .................................................... 44 8.7 Dose Response ...................................................................................................................... 45 8.7.1 Dose Response in Turkeys ......................................................................................... 45 8.7.2 Dose Response in Chickens ......................................................................................