EMERGING TECHNOLOGIE S AND THEIR EXPECTED IMPACT ON NON-FEDERAL SPECTRUM DEMAND May 2019 EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES AND THEIR EXPECTED IMPACT ON NON-FEDERAL SPECTRUM DEMAND Mr. President: Wireless technology has the power to drive our economy, protect national security, and improve the lives of Americans in ways that are still being discovered. As a result of our Nation’s leadership in 4G, we increased GDP by $100 billion in 2016, created more jobs, lowered consumer costs, and ensured that the United States was the home to the entrepreneurial revolution of advanced wireless applications. 5G networks can move massive amounts of data at exponentially faster speeds than existing 4G LTE networks, and will ensure American job growth, improve national security, and ensure American technological leadership in the 21st century. However, as our nation continues to innovate and create devices that are more capable, the demand for spectrum increases as well. To reap the benefits of 5G and the networks of the future, the Nation must have a forward-looking strategic policy to make spectrum use more efficient and make more spectrum available. In your October 25, 2018 Presidential Memorandum, “Developing a Sustainable Spectrum Strategy for America’s Future,” you directed The White House Office of Science and Technology Policy to develop a report on emerging technologies and their expected impact on non-Federal spectrum demand. The attached report examines the foundation of 5G technologies and the critical importance of leveraging such technologies to expedite rollout of 5G networks, details the spectrum requirements of 5G and Wi- Fi, and reviews recent and ongoing activities across the government to meet the spectrum demand. As you noted during the State of the Union address, the United States must “deliver new and important infrastructure investment, including investments in the cutting-edge industries of the future. This is not an option. This is a necessity.” Leadership in the industries of the future, including artificial intelligence, quantum information science, 5G, advanced manufacturing, and space commerce, will be central to this Administration’s economic, security, and infrastructure priorities. The focus of this report is on emerging technologies in wireless networks, specifically 5G and Wi-Fi, and ensuring that America expeditiously reaps the benefits of the revolutionary impact that 5G is expected to have across industrial sectors and society in general. 5G will allow the connectivity necessary for autonomous vehicles to communicate, create improvements in technological innovations to improve manufacturing, and provide vast datasets for interpretation by quantum computers. The effects of 5G networks will be transformative, and facilitate American innovation in unprecedented levels. From smart cities to connected farms, Americans’ entrepreneurship and innovation will utilize 5G connectivity and data rates to exponentially enhance our Nations technological leadership. However, to ensure near and long-term success in 5G, our Nation must ensure access to adequate spectrum capacity and utilize new and innovative methods of spectrum use. The private sector plays a central role in the rollout of 5G technology, but the goal of reaching 5G first cannot be attained without partnership with the Federal government. Through investment in R&D for next generation capabilities, ensuring efficient allocation and use of spectrum, and removing regulatory barriers, the Government plays a critical role in 5G deployment. Through such an approach, we can maintain our Nation’s global leadership in wireless technologies and the industries of the future. Sincerely, Michael Kratsios Deputy Assistant to the President for Technology Policy – ii – EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES AND THEIR EXPECTED IMPACT ON NON-FEDERAL SPECTRUM DEMAND Table of Contents Executive Summary ........................................................................................................... 1 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................. 7 Background ................................................................................................................................. 7 Purpose ....................................................................................................................................... 8 Scope .......................................................................................................................................... 8 Approach..................................................................................................................................... 8 2. Emerging Technologies .................................................................................................. 9 5G Wireless Technologies ............................................................................................................ 9 Introduction and Key Requirements ..................................................................................... 9 Generations of Mobile Communications .............................................................................. 11 5G Development and Standardization ................................................................................. 11 5G Usage Scenarios.............................................................................................................. 12 5G Deployment Projections ................................................................................................. 14 5G Enabling Technologies .......................................................................................................... 15 Core Network Function Processing ...................................................................................... 16 Backhaul and Fronthaul Networks ....................................................................................... 19 Radio Access Networks (RANs) ............................................................................................. 20 Wi-Fi Technologies ..................................................................................................................... 29 Existing and Emerging Wi-Fi Technologies ........................................................................... 29 Wi-Fi Capabilities vs. 5G Capabilities ................................................................................... 31 Wi-Fi Offloading of Cellular Traffic ....................................................................................... 32 3. Emerging Application-Level Technologies ....................................................................... 33 ITU Use Cases ............................................................................................................................. 33 3GPP Use Cases .......................................................................................................................... 34 5G Americas Use Cases ............................................................................................................... 35 NGNM Use Cases ......................................................................................................................... 36 5G PPP Use Cases ....................................................................................................................... 37 Summary ................................................................................................................................... 37 4. Spectrum Demand ........................................................................................................ 39 Spectrum Bands and Characteristics .......................................................................................... 39 Spectrum Management .............................................................................................................. 40 Functions of Spectrum Management ................................................................................... 41 Spectrum Management in the United States ........................................................................ 41 FCC Classes of Spectrum Use Rights .................................................................................... 41 Current Spectrum Holdings in the United States ........................................................................ 43 Low and Mid Bands .............................................................................................................. 43 Millimeter Wave Bands ........................................................................................................ 43 Evolution of 2G/3G/4G Bands to 5G ...................................................................................... 44 Forecasts of Demand in Terms of Devices and Traffic ................................................................. 45 – iii – EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES AND THEIR EXPECTED IMPACT ON NON-FEDERAL SPECTRUM DEMAND Networked Devices by Type ................................................................................................. 45 Connected Machine-to-Machine (M2M) Connections by Sector ............................................ 46 IP Traffic by Application Type .............................................................................................. 46 IP Traffic by Network Type and Device Type ........................................................................ 47 Mobile Traffic by Network Type, Device Type, and Application Type ..................................