Environment and Social Development DISCUSSION PAPERS East Asia and Pacifi c Region c Region c Public Disclosure Authorized THE WORLD BANK 1818 H. Street N.W. Washington, D.C. 20433 USA Tel: (202) 473-1000 Fax: (202) 473-6391 Internet URL: www.worldbank.org, worldbank.org/eapenvironment THE WORLD BANK OFFICE ULAANBAATAR 5F, MCS Plaza Building Seoul Street 4 Ulaanbaatar 210644, Mongolia Tel: (976-11) 312.647; 312.654 Fax: (976-11) 312.645 Public Disclosure Authorized Internet URL: www.worldbank.org.mn MONGOLIA Public Disclosure Authorized Air Quality Analysis of Ulaanbaatar Improving Air Quality to Reduce Health Impacts December 2011 Public Disclosure Authorized Formal Report 337/08 Formal Sustainable Development – East Asia and Pacifi Development Sustainable THE WORLD BANK 8369-COVR.pdf i 12/8/11 8:17 AM Air Quality Analysis of Ulaanbaatar Improving Air Quality to Reduce Health Impacts December 2011 THE WORLD BANK 8369-CH00_FM.pdf i 12/8/11 8:17 AM © 2011 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / THE WORLD BANK 1818 H Street, NW Washington, DC 20433 USA December 2011 All rights reserved. This study was prepared by the Sustainable Development Department (EASSD) of the East Asia and Pacifi c Region, and was mainly funded by the Bank-Korea Environmental Partnership (BKEP), the government of the Netherlands (through the “Netherlands–Mongolia Trust Fund for Environmental Reform”) and the Norwegian Development Organization (NORAD). Sustainable development issues are an integral part of the development challenge in the East Asia and Pacifi c (EAP) Region. The World Bank’s Sustainable Development Strategy for the region provides the conceptual framework for setting priorities, strengthening the policy and institutional frameworks for sustainable development, and addressing key environmental, social and rural development challenges through projects, programs, policy dia logue, non-lending services, and partnerships. The EASSD Discussion Paper series provides a forum for discussion on good practices and policy issues within the development community and with client countries. The publication and primary data are available online at www.worldbank.eapenvironment and www.worldbank.org.mn This volume is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank. The fi ndings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper do not necessarily refl ect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions The material in this publication is copyrighted. Copying and/or transmitting portions or all of this work without permission may be a violation of applicable law. The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will normally grant permission to reproduce portions of the work promptly. For permission to photocopy or reprint any part of this work, please send a request with complete information to the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, USA, telephone 978-750-8400, fax 978-750-4470, www.copyright.com. All other queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Offi ce of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA, fax 202- 522-2422, e-mail [email protected]. 8369-CH00_FM.pdf ii 12/8/11 8:17 AM T able of Contents FOREWORD ...................................................................................................................................vii ACRONYMS ....................................................................................................................................ix ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ......................................................................................................................xi EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................................................................. xiii 1. INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................................... Previous studies of air pollution in Ulaanbaatar and the AMHIB air pollution study ........................ 1 Objectives of this report ....................................................................................................................2 Scope of the project ...........................................................................................................................2 2. AIR QUALITY MANAGEMENT APPROACH ..................................................................................... Air Quality Management Concept .................................................................................................... 5 Air quality assessment in Ulaanbaatar by the AMHIB monitoring program ...................................... 6 Assessment of the spatial distribution of PM concentrations and the contributions from different emission sources ..................................................................................................................7 Air pollution and population exposure assessment .............................................................................7 Methods for health effects assessment ................................................................................................8 Methods for assessment of air-pollution-related health costs ..............................................................9 Methods for assessment of costs of abatement options .......................................................................9 The analytical scheme for cost-benefit evaluations ...........................................................................10 3. ASSESSMENT OF THE PRESENT AIR POLLUTION EXPOSURE AND SOURCE CONTRIBUTIONS IN ULAANBAATAR ................................................................................................................... Assessment of air pollution concentrations by monitoring ...............................................................14 Monitoring program ............................................................................................................... 14 Measured PM concentrations and their variability in Ulaanbaatar, June 08–May 09 ...............16 Summary of PM levels in Ulaanbaatar .....................................................................................20 Ger stove firing practices and variability in the PM concentrations in Ulaanbaatar ..................24 Quantification of contributions to PM air pollution from various source categories ........................24 Emission inventory ..................................................................................................................24 Contributions to ground-level concentrations ......................................................................... 25 Source apportionment by receptor modeling from AMHIB data analysis ........................................26 Assessment of air pollution exposure through air pollution modeling ..............................................30 The spatial distribution of PM concentrations in UB and the contribution from main sources .................................................................................................................................... 30 The exposure of the UB population to PM concentrations, and its source contributions .........36 Implications of air pollution mapping for the monitoring network in UB .......................................36 iii 8369-CH00_FM.pdf iii 12/8/11 8:17 AM Air Quality Analysis of Ulaanbaatar 4. ESTIMATING THE EFFECTS OF AIR POLLUTION ON MORTALITY AND HOSPITALIZATION IN ULAANBAATAR ................................................................................................................... Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 37 Data and Methods........................................................................................................................... 38 Results ............................................................................................................................................. 42 Summary and Discussion ................................................................................................................45 Implications .................................................................................................................................... 46 5. WILLINGNESS TO PAY TO REDUCE AIR POLLUTION IN ULAANBAATAR ........................................... Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 49 Literature Review ............................................................................................................................ 49 Survey design and adaptation ..........................................................................................................50 Data preparation and sample characteristics ....................................................................................53