115th Congress Midterm Election Results November 7, 2018 troutmansandersstrategies.com Table of Contents THE NEW LANDSCAPE .................................................................................................................. 1 HOUSE ELECTION RESULTS ......................................................................................................... 2 SENATE ELECTION RESULTS ........................................................................................................ 5 Senate Pre-Election ........................................................................................................ 7 Senate Post-Election ...................................................................................................... 7 GOVERNORS ELECTION RESULTS ................................................................................................. 8 ABOUT TROUTMAN SANDERS STRATEGIES ...................................................................................10 i THE NEW LANDSCAPE Political analysts widely predicted that Democrats would gain several seats in the House of Representatives and that Republicans would retain and possibly increase their majority in the Senate. The forecasts have proven true. Additionally, as expected, Democrats picked up several gubernatorial seats and state legislatures. In a historical context, it is highly unusual for the President’s party to lose seats in one chamber of Congress while gaining seats in the other. The last time this took place was in the midterm election of 1982 under President Ronal Reagan (-26 House seats, +1 Senate seat). The details of the election results and the party breakdowns for the 116th Congress are detailed in the pages below. Several states still have outstanding ballots and votes to be counted, so official numbers may change in the coming days and weeks. Additionally, states and jurisdictions have varying procedures surrounding runoff elections, counting provisional and absentee ballots, and recounts which could further delay results in several races. Although we will see dozens of new faces in Congress next year, the 115th Congress still has work to complete. Members will return to Washington, D.C. on November 13 to begin the lame duck session. Several important legislative items remain to be addressed by lawmakers before Congress adjourns for the December holidays. Troutman Sanders Strategies will provide an additional report in the coming days describing the lame duck to-do list, a policy outlook for the 116th Congress, and what changes we can expect to see in congressional leadership and committee makeup. Thank you, Troutman Sanders Strategies Washington, D.C. 1 HOUSE ELECTION RESULTS House Democrats will hold at least 222 seats in the lower chamber, gaining a net of 27 seats at minimum. Republicans, meanwhile, will hold at least 196 seats. Several races remain undecided or too close to call, but Democrats are expected to expand on their new majority. Several Democratic House pickups came from suburban districts in states like New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. Below you will find a table detailing dozens House races across the country that were considered among the most competitive by Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. The indexes and ratings are up to date as of November 7. Of these competitive races, Democrats flipped 19 districts that President Trump won in 2016, while Republicans flipped six districts that Hillary Clinton won. Please note that some official House race results are still pending with votes outstanding and some of the data may change. 2016 State-District Index/Rating Democrat Republican Results Presidential *Highlighted in TSS Election Outlook Clinton 50% - Ann Lea Marquez Kirkpatrick 53.3% Arizona-2 R+1/Lean D Trump 45% Kirkpatrick Peterson Peterson 46.7% Trump 52% - Rep. David Schweikert 56.4% Arizona-6 R+9/Likely R Anita Malik Clinton 42% Schweikert Malik 43.6% Trump 52% - Clarke Rep. French Hill 52.2% Arkansas-2 R+7/Likely R Clinton 42% Tucker Hill Tucker 45.8% Clinton 49% - Rep. Jeff Denham 50.6% California-10 Even/Toss-up Josh Harder Trump 46% Denham Harder 49.4% Clinton 50% - Rep. Steve Hill 51.3% *California-25 Even/Toss-up Katie Hill Trump 44% Knight Knight 48.7% Clinton 51% - Kim 51.4% California-39 Even/Toss-up Gil Cisneros Young Kim Trump 43% Cisneros 48.6% Clinton 50% - Rep. Mimi Walters 51.7% California-45 R+3/Toss-up Katie Porter Trump 44% Walters Porter 48.3% Rouda 50.7% Clinton 48% - Rep. Dana *California-48 R+4/Toss-up Harley Rouda Rohrabacher Trump 46% Rohrabacher 49.3% Clinton 51% - Levin 52.4% California-49 R+1/Likely D Mike Levin Diane Harkey Trump 43% Harkey 47.6% Hunter 54.2% Trump 55% - Ammar Rep. Duncan California-50 R+11/Lean R Campa-Naijar Clinton 40% Campa-Najjar Hunter 45.8% Clinton 50% - Rep. Mike Crow 53.1% *Colorado-6 D+2/Lean D Jason Crow Trump 41% Coffman Coffman 44.2% Trump 53% - Kristen Spano 53.1% Florida-15 R+6/Toss-up Ross Spano Clinton 43% Carlson Carlson 46.9% Trump 53% - David Rep. Vern Buchanan 54.6% Florida-16 R+7/Lean R Clinton 43% Shapiro Buchanan Shapiro 45.4% Trump 53% - Rep. Brian Mast 54.4% Florida-18 R+5/Lean R Lauren Baer Clinton 44% Mast Baer 45.6% Debbie Mucarsel-Powell Clinton 56% - Rep. Carlos *Florida-26 D+6/Toss-up Mucarsel- 50.8% Trump 40% Curbelo Powell Curbelo 49.2% 2 Clinton 58% - Donna Maria Elvira Shalala 51.7% Florida-27 D+5/Lean D Trump 39% Shalala Salazar Salazar 45.9% Trump 48% - Rep. Karen McBath 50.3% Georgia-6 R+8/Toss-up Lucy McBath Clinton 47% Handel Handel 49.7% Clinton 49% - Rep. Peter Casten 52.8% Illinois-6 R+2/Lean D Sean Casten Trump 42% Roskam Roskam 47.2% Trump 54% - Brendan Rep. Mike Bost %51.8 *Illinois-12 R+5/Lean R Clinton 40% Kelly Bost Kelly 45.2% Davis 50.7% Trump 49% - Betsy Dirksen Rep. Rodney Illinois-13 R+3/Lean R Dirksen Londrigan Clinton 44% Londrigan Davis 49.3% Trump 48% - Lauren Rep. Randy Underwood 51.9% Illinois-14 R+5/Toss-up Clinton 44% Underwood Hultgren Hultgren 48.1% Trump 48% - Abby Rep. Rod Finkenauer 50.9% *Iowa-1 D+1/Lean D Clinton 45% Finkenauer Blum Blum 46% Trump 48% - Rep. David Axne 49% *Iowa-3 R+1/Toss-up Cindy Axne Clinton 45% Young Young 47.5% Trump 56% - Steve Watkins 48.1% *Kansas-2 R+10/Toss-up Paul Davis Clinton 37% Watkins Davis 46.4% Clinton 47% - Sharice Rep. Kevin Davids 53.3% Kansas-3 R+4/Lean D Trump 46% Davids Yoder Yoder 44.2% Trump 55% - Rep. Andy Barr 51% *Kentucky-6 R+9/Toss-up Amy McGrath Clinton 39% Barr McGrath 47.8% Trump 51% - Rep. Bruce Poliquin 46.1% *Maine-2 R+2/Toss-up Jared Golden Clinton 41% Poliquin Golden 45.8% Trump 51% - Rep. Mike Slotkin 50.6% Michigan-8 R+4/Toss-up Elissa Slotkin Clinton 44% Bishop Bishop 46.8% Trump 50% - Haley Stevens 52.1% Michigan-11 R+4/Lean D Lena Epstein Clinton 45% Stevens Epstein 44.9% Trump 53% - Hagedorn 50.3% Minnesota-1 R+5/Toss-up Dan Feehan Jim Hagedorn Clinton 38% Feehan 49.7% Trump 47% - Rep. Jason Craig 52.8% Minnesota-2 R+2/Lean D Angie Craig Clinton 45% Lewis Lewis 47.8% Clinton 50% - Rep. Erik Phillips 55.7% Minnesota-3 D+1/Lean D Dean Phillips Trump 41% Paulsen Paulsen 44.3% Trump 54% - Joe Stauber 50.7% Minnesota-8 R+4/Lean R Pete Stauber Clinton 39% Radinovich Radinovich 45.2% Trump 52% - Cort Rep. Ann Wagner 51.3% Missouri-2 R+8/Lean R Clinton 42% VanOstran Wagner VanOstran 47.1% Montana-At- Trump 56% - Kathleen Rep. Greg Gianforte 53.1% R+11/Lean R Large Clinton 36% Williams Gianforte Williams 44.1% Trump 49% - Kara Rep. Don Bacon 51.6% Nebraska-2 R+4/Lean R Clinton 46% Eastman Bacon Eastman 48.4% Trump 48% - Danny Lee 51.9% Nevada-3 R+2/Lean D Susie Lee Clinton 47% Tarkanian Tarkanian 42.8% ex-Rep. ex-Rep. Clinton 49% - Horsford 52% Nevada-4 D+3/Lean D Steven Cresent Trump 45% Hardy 43.7% Horsford Hardy New Trump 48% - Eddie Pappas 53.5% R+2/Likely D Chris Pappas Hampshire-1 Clinton 46% Edwards Edwards 45.1% Trump 51% - Rep. Tom MacArthur 49.8% New Jersey-3 R+2/Toss-up Andy Kim Clinton 45% MacArthur Kim 48.9% Clinton 48% - Tom Rep. Leonard Malinowski 50.3% New Jersey-7 R+3/Toss-up Trump 47% Malinowski Lance Lance 48.2% 3 New Jersey- Trump 48% - Sherrill 55.6% R+3/Lean D Mikie Sherrill Jay Webber 11 Clinton 47% Webber 43.3% Harrell 50.5% Trump 50% - Xochitl Torres New Mexico-2 R+6/Toss-up Yvette Harrell Torres Small Clinton 40% Small 49.5% Trump 54% - Perry Rep. Lee Zeldin 52.5% New York-1 R+5/Likely R Clinton 42% Gershon Zeldin Gershon 46.4% Trump 54% - Rep. Dan Rose 52.8% New York-11 R+3/Lean R Max Rose Clinton 44% Donovan Donovan 46.8% Trump 51% - Antonio Rep. John Delgado 49.8% *New York-19 R+2/Toss-up Clinton 44% Delgado Faso Faso 47.6% Trump 55% - Anthony Rep. Claudia Brindisi 50.3% New York-22 R+6/Toss-up Clinton 39% Brindisi Tenney Tenney 49.7% Clinton 49% - Rep. John Katko 53.1% New York-24 D+3/Lean R Dana Balter Trump 45% Katko Balter 46.9% Trump 60% - Nate Rep. Chris Collins 49.5% New York-27 R+11/Lean R Clinton 35% McMurray Collins McMurray 48.4% North Trump 53% - Linda Rep. George Holding 51.2% R+7/Lean R Carolina-2 Clinton 43% Coleman Holding Coleman 45.9% North Trump 54% - Dan Harris 49.4% R+7/Toss-up Mark Harris Carolina-9 Clinton 42% McCready McCready 48.8% North Trump 53% - Kathy Rep. Ted Budd 51.6% R+6/Toss-up Carolina-13 Clinton 44% Manning Budd Manning 45.5% Trump 51% - Rep. Steve Chabot 51.8% Ohio-1 R+5/Lean R Aftab Pureval Clinton 44% Chabot Pureval 46.4% Trump 52% - Danny Rep.