APPENDIX E History and Calculation of Traffic, Toll Revenues and Expenses and Review of Physical Conditions of the Facilities of Triborough Bridge and Tunnel Authority Prepared for: Triborough Bridge and Tunnel Authority Prepared by: Stantec Consulting Services, Inc. April 29, 2020 HISTORY AND CALCULATION OF TRAFFIC, TOLL REVENUES AND EXPENSES AND REVIEW OF PHYSICAL CONDITIONS OF THE FACILITIES OF TRIBOROUGH BRIDGE AND TUNNEL AUTHORITY TABLE OF CONTENTS Page TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE .......................................................................................................... 2 TBTA Facilities .................................................................................................................................. 2 Metropolitan Area Arterial Network ............................................................................................ 5 Other Regional Toll Facilities ......................................................................................................... 5 Regional Public Transportation .................................................................................................... 6 The Central Business District Tolling Program .............................................................................. 7 TOLL COLLECTION ON THE TBTA FACILITIES .............................................................................................. 8 Present and Proposed Toll Structures and Operation ............................................................... 8 Cashless Tolling System ................................................................................................................ 15 TBTA’s Role in E-ZPass ................................................................................................................... 16 Cashless, Open Road Tolling (“Cashless Tolling”) .................................................................... 17 Passenger Car Toll Rate Trends and Inflation ........................................................................... 18 HISTORICAL TRAFFIC, REVENUES AND EXPENSES AND ESTIMATED/BUDGETED NUMBERS FOR 2019 ............................................................................................................................................... 21 Traffic and Toll Revenue, 2009 to 2019 ...................................................................................... 24 Traffic by Facility and Vehicle Class, 2019 ................................................................................ 28 Monthly Traffic, 2019 .................................................................................................................... 29 Changes in Monthly Traffic, 2018 to 2019 ................................................................................. 30 Operating Expenses, 2009 to 2019 ............................................................................................. 31 FACTORS AFFECTING PROFORMA TRAFFIC GROWTH ........................................................................... 34 Employment, Population, and Motor Vehicle Registrations ................................................... 34 Fuel Availability and Prices ......................................................................................................... 44 Toll Increase Impacts, Collection Methods, and Elasticity ..................................................... 48 Availability of Capacity on TBTA Facilities ................................................................................ 50 TBTA and Regional Operational and Construction Impacts .................................................. 51 Summary of Assumptions and Conditions for Proforma Analysis ........................................... 65 ANALYSIS OF TRAFFIC, REVENUES, AND EXPENSES ................................................................................. 68 Traffic and Toll Revenue Scenarios, 2020 .................................................................................. 69 Traffic and Toll Revenue at Current Tolls ................................................................................... 72 Traffic and Toll Revenue with Assumed 2021 and 2023 Toll Increases .................................. 73 Effects of Second Avenue Subway Construction in Forecast Years ..................................... 78 Cashless Tolling Accounting in Forecast Years......................................................................... 79 Operating Expenses .................................................................................................................... 79 Net Revenues from Toll Operations ........................................................................................... 80 REVIEW OF PHYSICAL CONDITIONS ......................................................................................................... 81 Post-Superstorm Sandy Reports, Capital Investments, and Rehabilitation ........................... 83 Inspection Reports, Flagged Conditions and Rehabilitation Projects ................................... 83 Other System Wide Improvements ............................................................................................ 91 Long-Term Outlook for TBTA Facilities ........................................................................................ 93 CONCLUDING REMARKS .......................................................................................................................... 94 i HISTORY AND CALCULATION OF TRAFFIC, TOLL REVENUES AND EXPENSES AND REVIEW OF PHYSICAL CONDITIONS OF THE FACILITIES OF TRIBOROUGH BRIDGE AND TUNNEL AUTHORITY LIST OF TABLES Page Table 1 Current Toll Rates at TBTA Facilities, Effective Since March 31, 2019 ...................................... 9 Table 2 Year-End E-ZPass Participation Rates ........................................................................................ 16 Table 3 Historical Trends in Cash, TBM and E-ZPass Passenger Car Toll Rates ................................... 20 Table 4 E-ZPass Passenger Toll Rates versus Consumer Price Index .................................................... 21 Table 5 Annual Toll-Paying Traffic and Toll Revenue, 2009 to 2019 .................................................... 25 Table 6 Summary of Annual Paid Traffic and Toll Revenue, 2009 to 2019 ......................................... 26 Table 7 Actual Changes in January - February Traffic, 2019 to 2020 ................................................. 28 Table 8 Traffic by Facility and Vehicle Class, 2019 ................................................................................ 29 Table 9 Monthly Traffic Variations, 2019 ................................................................................................. 30 Table 10 Changes in Monthly Average Daily Traffic, 2018 to 2019 ..................................................... 31 Table 11 Historical Operating Expenses, 2009 to 2019 .......................................................................... 32 Table 12 Employment Trends ................................................................................................................... 36 Table 13 NYMTC Employment Projections ............................................................................................. 37 Table 14 Labor Force(a) Conditions, 2010 & 2019 .................................................................................. 38 Table 15 Housing Building Permits Issued within the City, 2015 – 2019 ................................................ 39 Table 16 Major Manhattan Office Buildings Proposed for Completion by 2025(a) ........................... 40 Table 17 Population Trends 1970 to 2018 ............................................................................................... 41 Table 18 Population Projections .............................................................................................................. 42 Table 19 Motor Vehicle Registrations ..................................................................................................... 43 Table 20 New York City Motor Vehicle Registrations, 2015 to 2019 .................................................... 44 Table 21 Elasticity Factors ........................................................................................................................ 50 Table 22 Estimated Percent Change in Average Toll Rates and Traffic in 2021 and 2023 .............. 50 Table 23 Potential Changes in Annual Traffic, 2019 to 2020 (“What if” Scenarios 1 and 2) ............ 70 Table 24 2020 Toll-Paying Traffic and Toll Revenue (“What if” Scenarios 1 and 2) ........................... 72 Table 25 Traffic and Toll Revenue Forecast, Constant Tolls (“What if” Scenarios 1 and 2) .............. 74 Table 26 Traffic and Toll Revenue Forecast with Assumed 2021 and 2023 Toll Increases (“What if” Scenarios 1 and 2) .................................................................................................................................... 76 Table 27 "What If" Scenario Summary 2019 - 2026 Annual Revenue, Constant Tolls ........................ 78 Table 28 "What If" Scenario Summary 2019 - 2026 Annual Revenue, Toll Increases ......................... 78 Table 29 Projected Operating Expenses ................................................................................................ 80 Table 30 Net Toll Revenue Forecast (“What if” Scenarios 1 and 2) .................................................... 81 Table 31 Opening Dates of TBTA Facilities