Analysis Paper 05/2021 3 February 2021 Pedro Sánchez Herráez Europe… Balkan resemblances? Visit the WEBSITE Receive the E-NEWSLETTER Europe... Balkan resemblances? Abstract: Just after Brexit, and in a complex environment in a Europe full of populisms and disintegrating movements, both internal and external, it may seem that, despite everything, the possibility of the European Union's disappearance, given the importance and significance of that institution, be a somewhat remote possibility With the logical differences and distance, it seems possible to establish a series of common elements and similarities between the birth and rise of Yugoslavia and that of the European Union. And considering that Yugoslavia disappeared, an exercise is carried out to contrast that fact and the current situation in the Union. A final reflection closes the Document. Keywords: Europe, European Union, Balkans, Yugoslavia, Brexit, Populism, Union, Secession *NOTE: The ideas contained in the Analysis Papers are the responsibility of their authors. They do not necessarily reflect the thinking of the IEEE or the Ministry of Defence. Analysis Paper 05/2021 1 Europe... Balkan resemblances? Pedro Sánchez Herráez Europa… ¿Semblanzas balcánicas? Resumen: Recién consumado el Brexit, y en un entorno complejo en una Europa plena de populismos y movimientos disgregadores, tanto internos como externos, puede parecer que, pese a todo, la posibilidad de desaparición de la Unión Europea, dada la importancia y trascendencia de dicha institución, sea una posibilidad un tanto remota. Con las lógicas diferencias y distancia, parece posible establecer una serie de elementos comunes y similitudes entre el nacimiento y auge de Yugoslavia y el de la Unión Europea. Y considerando que Yugoslavia desapareció, se realiza un ejercicio de contraste entre ese hecho y la situación actual que vive la Unión. Una reflexión final cierra el Documento. Palabras clave: Europa, Unión Europea, Balcanes, Yugoslavia, Brexit, Populismo, Unión, Secesión. How to cite this document: SÁNCHEZ HERRÁEZ, Pedro. Europe... Balkan resemblances? IEEE Analysis Paper 05/2021. http://www.ieee.es/Galerias/fichero/docs_analisis/2021/DIEEEA05_2021_PEDSAN_Semblanza Balcanica_ENG.pdf and/or bie3 link (consulted day/month/year) Analysis Paper 05/2021 2 Europe... Balkan resemblances? Pedro Sánchez Herráez 2021: A turning point for Europe? With Brexit finally complete on 31 December 2020, after a long, almost agonising process that has lasted nearly four years, the fact is that the decision and materialisation of this British abandonment is a deep blow to a European Union that is going through complex times, not only due to the harshness of the pandemic and its effects on a continental and global scale, but above all because of the Member States' different visions and perceptions of it and the powerful wave of Euroscepticism that is sweeping Europe amidst the growth of populisms and various trends which, like centripetal forces, are powerfully damaging the extraordinary project of a united Europe. But also, a little over a month before the completion of Britain's withdrawal, it was the 25th anniversary of the Dayton Accords –dated 21 November 1995– which put an end to the war in Bosnia-Herzegovina and seemed to be the solution to the succession of conflicts generated by the disintegration of Yugoslavia... although they certainly were not, as the war episodes in the region continued. One need only recall the conflict in North Macedonia in 2001 –a veritable attempt at civil war and the partition of the country– or the war in the Serbian province of Kosovo that led not only to the first armed intervention by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in its history, but also to the self-proclamation of independence as a state of a territory seceded from Serbia in 2008 (Kosovo), without forgetting that disputes and differences in many regions of the former Yugoslavia are far from being a thing of the past. The Balkans and Europe –the European Union– are part of the same reality, as it is not possible to understand Europe without the Balkans, and it is not possible to understand the Balkans without the rest of Europe; and, therefore, geography and history, together with other aspects, make it possible to establish a series of similarities between the two areas. Yugoslavia was an invention, a "lucky experiment", just as the European Union is, that grand idea of unifying all or a large part of the European continent into a common institution, in both cases making their citizens live in peace, being more prosperous and more visible in the world. And although there are obviously many differences, there are also many similarities, as was pointed out with extreme simplicity and clarity a few years ago by the mayor of the town where Titus, the great Yugoslav leader, was born: Analysis Paper 05/2021 3 Europe... Balkan resemblances? Pedro Sánchez Herráez "Although they are very different entities, there are some parallels between the EU and socialist Yugoslavia: Both operate as a united market to compete in the international market."1 In addition to this great similarity –which is a powerful raison d'être in itself– it may be that the genesis of Yugoslavia and the European Union also had other aspects in common. And if the birth of both realities was full of coincidences... could it be that the current situation in the European Union also has parallels with that which led to the break-up of Yugoslavia? The Balkans: a complex and key area The term "Balkans", which means "mountains", refers to the peninsula located in the east of the European continent; a peninsula, albeit with limits that vary according to the analysts, which is similar in size to the Iberian peninsula and encompasses, to a greater or lesser extent, the current countries of Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Albania and the precedents of the break-up of Yugoslavia (Slovenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Northern Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia) and, also from Yugoslavia, the territory of Kosovo. And this peninsula has been a territory in permanent struggle, both due to external and internal actors, disputed both by the powers of the moment and by its own inhabitants. The fact that it is the natural land bridge between Europe and the Middle East, as well as providing the outlet to the Mediterranean Sea from Central Europe and the relatively nearby Russian steppes, has led to a desire for control of this area by nations and empires throughout history, whether remote in time or, among others, from the Persian or Roman empires to those chronologically closest to them, such as the Ottoman, Austro-Hungarian, Russian, German, French and British empires. And even in these most recent disputes, and despite diplomatic negotiations and political actions to 1EL MUNDO, "Yugonostalgia" in EU Croatia, 29 June 2013. Available at https://www.elmundo.es/elmundo/2013/06/29/internacional/1372490660.html NOTE: All web links in this document are active as of 22 January 2020. Analysis Paper 05/2021 4 Europe... Balkan resemblances? Pedro Sánchez Herráez "reorder" the region, the truth is that "there was hardly any part of the area that was not claimed by at least two empires"2. The struggle of these great powers of the past for this key space for their purposes –to obtain freedom of land movement and/or access to the sea, or to deny it to their adversary– always involved the possibility of seeking allies in the area, human groups who, in a highly compartmentalised environment, were constantly disputing among themselves over religious, economic and ethnic issues... human groups that were essentially united on the basis of their identity and who often willingly accepted, or actively sought, the help of these empires, of these great powers, to receive support in their local disputes. In this way, local conflicts ended up as regional or quasi-global conflagrations; or, on other occasions, conflicts on the international scale of the powers, by employing their "delegates" in the peninsula, dragged these small communities into disputes in which, in reality, it was not their interests that were being settled3, but those of the empires. Given this situation of constant disputes... wouldn't it be better to look for other options? Was anyone interested in a united Balkans? In addition to the scant –nil– interest on the part of external actors in the Balkan area being "dominated by someone else", there was also no interest in the peninsula, or much of it, being united; there was no desire to try to get the different groups, nationalities and entities to overcome their differences, cease their permanent wars and unite, as this would enable them to achieve a critical mass that would give the Balkan peninsula a power in all areas (political, diplomatic, economic, military, etc.) that would enable them to speak with their own voice in the international arena, cease to be 2As the International Commission set up to investigate the causes of the Balkan Wars would later point out, "There is hardly any part of the territory of the Ottoman Empire in Europe that is not claimed by at least two competitors" Report of the International Commission to Inquire into the Causes and Conduct of the Balkan Wars, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1914, page 38. 3 This situation constitutes a paradigmatic case of "war by proxy". In this connection CALDERÓN PONTIJAS, José Luis, Tendencias en la guerra por delegación (proxy warfare), Spanish Institute for Strategic Studies, Analysis Document 09/2020, 30 March 2020. Available at http://www.ieee.es/Galerias/fichero/docs_analisis/2020/DIEEEA09_2020JOSPON_proxy.pdf Analysis Paper 05/2021 5 Europe... Balkan resemblances? Pedro Sánchez Herráez "delegates of others" and focus their efforts and interests on improving their standard of living and quality of life once the cycle of perpetual conflicts had ended.