Alexandre Y. Mansourov THE ORIGINS, EVOLUTION, AND CURRENT POLITICS OF THE NORTH KOREAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM by Alexandre Y. Mansourov Alexandre Y. Mansourov served in the Soviet embassy in Pyongyang from 1987 to 1989. In 1990, he graduated from the Moscow State Institute of International Relations and left the foreign service. He is now a doctoral candidate in political science at Columbia University in New York. The following article is an updated version of a paper he presented at the Monterey Institute of International Studies on March 1, 1995. oliticians, defense analysts, evolution of the DPRK’s nuclear rapid expansion (late 1970s to early and even the general public program and determines where it 1990s), and design switch/matura- P in various capitals have de- stands now. Secondly, it attempts to tion (from 1994 on). bated the advantages and disadvan- assess the DPRK’s nuclear capabili- tages of the “Agreed Framework” ties and intentions and analyzes how Inception signed on October 21, 1994, be- these are reflected in the organiza- tween the United States and the tional structure of its nuclear pro- Even before the DPRK was es- Democratic People’s Republic of gram. Thirdly, it compares the de- tablished on September 9, 1948, the Korea (DPRK). Pyongyang calls it cision-making dynamics on the Soviet Union sent a team of scien- a “landmark achievement.”1 Al- nuclear issue during the rule of the tists to North Korea in 1947 to con- though the U.S. government con- late President Kim Il-sung with duct a geological survey of the 3 4 sulted with its South Korean coun- those under his successor Kim Jong- monazite mines. From late 1949 terpart at every stage of the negotia- il. Finally, it speculates on “winners” to the outbreak of the Korean War, tions, and the ROK government ac- and “losers” in the current political North Korea exported concentrates cepted the Agreed Framework prior scene in Pyongyang and on the of monazite, tantalum, niobium, and to its announcement, there is gen- chances for successful North Korean uranic ore to the Soviet Union in erally a negative reaction among the engagement with the West. partial payment for military equip- South Korean public. Seoul even ment and arms delivered to 5 feels somewhat betrayed.2 Washing- NORTH KOREAN NUCLEAR Pyongyang in 1949 to 1950. ton is divided too. Everybody agrees CAPABILITIES In 1952, when the Chinese that it is a weak deal, but despite People’s Volunteers were holding the tough rhetoric, nobody seems to be Activities in the nuclear field have battle line along the 38th parallel, willing or prepared to scuttle or re- a long history in the northern part China sent Dr. Wang Gaochang to negotiate it. of the Korean Peninsula. One can North Korea to search for and col- 6 To be able to appreciate fully the divide the evolution of the North lect radioactive materials. significance of the package deal, one Korean nuclear program into four Following the war, on March 26 needs to know more about the prob- main phases: 1) inception (the and September 7, 1956, the Soviet lem it is designed to resolve. First, 1950s), 2) indigenous accumulation Union and the DPRK signed two this article traces the origins and of knowledge and technical exper- agreements on cooperation in tise (early 1960s to mid-1970s), 3) nuclear research projects. In accor- The Nonproliferation Review/Spring-Summer 1995 25 Alexandre Y. Mansourov dance with these agreements, the search Complex under the auspices Army (KPA) and the Ministry of framework for cooperation between of the DPRK Academy of Sciences. Public Security to begin the imple- the Soviet Union and the DPRK in The Yongbyon area was designated mentation of the North Korean the nuclear field was established, a “Special District” directly subor- nuclear program design, including and North Korean scientists began dinate to the Administrative Coun- rapid expansion of the nuclear-re- to receive professional training in the cil, with access being severely re- lated facilities and development of field of nuclear physics at the So- stricted.13 Approaches were heavily the infrastructure for a nuclear viet Dubna Nuclear Research Com- guarded by the troops of the Minis- weapon program in Yongbyon.17 Ac- plex.7 In 1959, the DPRK signed try of the Public Security.14 cording to recent reports from high- an additional protocol with the So- In August 1965, the Soviet Union level DPRK defectors, at that time viet Union on the peaceful use of delivered to the DPRK a 0.1 mega- the DPRK constructed a complex of nuclear energy. This protocol autho- watt thermal (MWt) critical assem- underground nuclear facilities in the rized the transfer of a small research- bly and a two MWt research reac- Pakch’on area, 22 kilometers south- type nuclear reactor and other com- tor (“issledovatelskii reaktor tipa east of Yongbyon.18 The facilities plex nuclear equipment to 2000,” i.e. IRT 2000) under the were reported to be located in a hill Pyongyang.8 Also, in the late 1950s, terms of the 1959 nuclear coopera- east and southeast of the city, near the DPRK government sent some tion agreement. The reactor was set the Pakch’on Air Base.19 Appar- nuclear scientists to the People’s up in a special compound directly ently, it was there and then that the Republic of China for nuclear train- on the Kuryong River at Yongdong, DPRK nuclear scientists began to ing at the Chinese nuclear-related 4.7 kilometers west of Yongbyon. work on an indigenous nuclear fuel facilities.9 Reportedly, it became operational in enrichment technology, a design for In the mid-1950s, the DPRK gov- 1967.15 In the following decades, it a nuclear device, and potential ernment established nuclear phys- has been used to produce radioac- nuclear weapon delivery systems. ics departments at Kim Il-sung Na- tive isotopes for scientific research, In addition, in the late 1970s, a tional University and Kim Ch’aek industrial, and medical purposes. uranium mine was commissioned in Industrial College.10 These two uni- Gradually, North Korean scientists Yongbyon. Among the facilities con- versities were in charge of the aca- expanded the capacity of this reac- structed in Yongbyon during the late demic education of most of the tor into an eight MWt research re- 1970s to early 1980s were a mill North Korean nuclear scholars and actor, using their indigenous tech- for concentrating the uranium ore technicians. Their faculties con- nology. into “yellowcake,” a plant to purify ducted basic nuclear research and In September 1974, the DPRK this material, a nuclear fuel rod fab- were responsible for keeping abreast officially joined the International rication plant, and a storage site. of international developments in the Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), al- Also, the DPRK acquired the abil- field of nuclear physics.11 though it had not yet acceded to the ity to mine and purify graphite for nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty the reactor.20 Indigenous Accumulation of (NPT). On July 20, 1977, the In January 1986, the North Ko- Nuclear Expertise DPRK signed an INFCIRC/66-type reans commissioned a five MWt agreement with the IAEA, which indigenous experimental nuclear When the first generation of the provided a mechanism by which its power reactor at the Institute of North Korean nuclear specialists two MWt research reactor and 0.1 Nuclear Physics in Yongbyon (gas- completed their term of study and MWt critical assembly could be graphite design of the 1940s, Calder practical training at the Soviet monitored.16 Hall-type). In 1984, the DPRK be- Dubna facility and returned to the gan construction of a 50 MWt power DPRK in the early 1960s, the North Rapid Expansion reactor (G-2 gas-graphite type) lo- Korean government decided to build cated south of Yong-dong on the east a similar complex for them about The third phase began in the late bank of the Kuryong River. It was 90 kilometers northeast of 1970s, when Kim Il-sung is believed scheduled to be completed in 1995 12 Pyongyang. This was the begin- to have authorized the DPRK Acad- to 1996.21 Also, construction of a ning of the Yongbyon Nuclear Re- emy of Sciences, the Korean People’s 26 Nonproliferation Review/Spring-Summer 1995 Alexandre Y. Mansourov 200 MWt nuclear power reactor, about 150 nuclear scientists with onslaught of nuclear inspections scheduled to be completed in 1997- doctorate degrees and over 2,400 began. Every time international in- 98, was under way in Taejon until nuclear specialists working in the spectors went in (six times in a row), late 1994.22 DPRK’s nuclear program.27 they found additional evidence of the In 1987, the DPRK began the In sum, sometime at the end of DPRK’s noncompliance with its construction of a so-called “radio- the 1970s, the DPRK government NPT obligations.31 No matter how chemical laboratory”23 declared to made a political decision to launch ardently the North Korean scientists be designed for research on the sepa- a nuclear weapon development pro- tried to prove that they were in full ration of uranium and plutonium, gram for reasons that I will discuss compliance with international norms waste management, and the train- below. However, according to the and sincere in their lack of knowl- ing of technicians. It should have Russian Foreign Intelligence Service edge and understanding of certain been made operational in 1994. It (FIS),28 because of various eco- technological processes, they were is the second largest facility of this nomic, financial, and scientific dif- greeted with profound suspicion and kind in the world after the U.S.