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Shaking the Heavens and Splitting the Earth Chinese Air Force Employment Concepts in the 21st Century Roger Cliff, John Fei, Jeff Hagen, Elizabeth Hague, Eric Heginbotham, John Stillion Prepared for the United States Air Force Approved for public release; distribution unlimited PROJECT AIR FORCE The research described in this report was sponsored by the United States Air Force under Contract FA7014-06-C-0001. Further information may be obtained from the Strategic Planning Division, Directorate of Plans, Hq USAF. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Shaking the heavens and splitting the earth : Chinese air force employment concepts in the 21st century / Roger Cliff ... [et al]. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 978-0-8330-4932-2 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. China. Zhongguo ren min jie fang jun. Kong jun. 2. Air forces—China. 3. Air power —China. I. Cliff, Roger. II. Title: Chinese air force employment concepts in the 21st century. UG635.C6S53 2011 358.40951—dc22 2010037764 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. Cover image courtesy of AP Photos. © Copyright 2011 RAND Corporation Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Copies may not be duplicated for commercial purposes. Unauthorized posting of RAND documents to a non-RAND Web site is prohibited. RAND documents are protected under copyright law. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit the RAND permissions page (http://www.rand.org/publications/permissions.html). Published 2011 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-2665 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] Preface China’s air force is in the midst of a transformation. A decade ago, it was an antiquated service equipped almost exclusively with weap- ons based on 1950s-era Soviet designs and operated by personnel with questionable training according to outdated employment concepts. Today, the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) appears to be on its way to becoming a modern, highly capable air force for the 21st century. This monograph analyzes publications of the Chinese military, previously published Western studies of China’s air force, and informa- tion available in published sources about current and future capabili- ties of the PLAAF. It describes the concepts for employing forces that the PLAAF is likely to implement in the future, analyzes how those concepts might be realized in a conflict over Taiwan, assesses the impli- cations of China implementing these concepts, and develops recom- mendations about actions that should be taken in response. The book should be of interest to defense planners, analysts of China’s military forces, policymakers, and anyone else interested in China’s military modernization and its implications for the United States and Taiwan. The book is the result of a project called “Chinese Air and Space Power,” the purpose of which was to help the U.S. Air Force (USAF) understand how the Chinese military thinks about air and space power, how China might employ air and space power in a confrontation with the United States, and how the USAF can better counter Chinese doc- trinal and operational concepts. The research reported here was spon- sored by the Director of Air, Space and Information Operations, Head- iii iv Shaking the Heavens and Splitting the Earth quarters Pacific Air Forces (PACAF A3/A5) and conducted within the Strategy and Doctrine Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE. It will be followed by a companion piece on Chinese space power and is part of an ongoing effort by Project AIR FORCE to assess the nature and implications of the growth in Chinese military power. The information in this monograph was current as of July 2009. Previous publications from this effort include the following: • Evan S. Medeiros, China’s International Behavior: Activism, Opportunism, and Diversification, Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, MG-850-AF, 2009 • Evan S. Medeiros, Keith Crane, Eric Heginbotham, Norman D. Levin, Julia F. Lowell, Angel Rabasa, and Somi Seong, Pacific Currents: The Responses of U.S. Allies and Security Partners in East Asia to China’s Rise, MG-736-AF, 2008 • Roger Cliff and David A. Shlapak, U.S.-China Relations After Resolution of Taiwan’s Status, MG-567-AF, 2007 • Roger Cliff, Mark Burles, Michael S. Chase, Derek Eaton, and Kevin L. Pollpeter, Entering the Dragon’s Lair: Chinese Antiaccess Strategies and Their Implications for the United States, MG-524-AF, 2007 • Evan S. Medeiros, Roger Cliff, Keith Crane, and James C. Mulvenon, A New Direction for China’s Defense Industry, MG- 334-AF, 2005 • Keith Crane, Roger Cliff, Evan Medeiros, James C. Mulvenon, and William H. Overholt, Modernizing China’s Military: Oppor- tunities and Constraints, MG-260-1-AF, 2005 • Kevin Pollpeter, U.S.-China Security Management: Assessing the Military-to-Military Relationship, MG-143-AF, 2004 • Zalmay Khalilzad, David T. Orletsky, Jonathan D. Pollack, Kevin L. Pollpeter, Angel Rabasa, David A. Shlapak, Abram N. Shulsky, and Ashley J. Tellis, The United States and Asia: Toward a New U.S. Strategy and Force Posture, MR-1315-AF, 2001 • Roger Cliff,The Military Potential of China’s Commercial Technol- ogy, MR-1292-AF, 2001 Preface v • Erica Strecker Downs, China’s Quest for Energy Security, MR- 1244-AF, 2000 • Richard Sokolsky, Angel Rabasa, and C. Richard Neu, The Role of Southeast Asia in U.S. Strategy Toward China, MR-1170-AF, 2000 • Abram N. Shulsky, Deterrence Theory and Chinese Behavior, MR- 1161-AF, 2000 • Mark Burles and Abram N. Shulsky, Patterns in China’s Use of Force: Evidence from History and Doctrinal Writings, MR-1160-AF, 2000 • Michael D. Swaine and Ashley J. Tellis, Interpreting China’s Grand Strategy: Past, Present, and Future, MR-1121-AF, 2000 • Daniel Byman and Roger Cliff, China’s Arms Sales: Motivations and Implications, MR-1119-AF, 1999 • Zalmay Khalilzad, Abram N. Shulsky, Daniel Byman, Roger Cliff, David T. Orletsky, David A. Shlapak, and Ashley J. Tellis, The United States and a Rising China: Strategic and Military Impli- cations, MR-1082-AF, 1999 • Mark Burles, Chinese Policy Toward Russia and the Central Asian Republics, MR-1045-AF, 1999. RAND Project AIR FORCE RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Cor- poration, is the U.S. Air Force’s federally funded research and devel- opment center for studies and analyses. PAF provides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the devel- opment, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future aerospace forces. Research is conducted in four programs: Force Modernization and Employment; Manpower, Personnel, and Train- ing; Resource Management; and Strategy and Doctrine. Additional information about PAF is available on our website: http://www.rand.org/paf/ Contents Preface . ............................................................................ iii Figures . ...........................................................................xiii Summary . .........................................................................xv Acknowledgments . ...........................................................xxvii Abbreviations . ..................................................................xxix CHAPTER ONE Introduction . ...................................................................... 1 Methodology . .....................................................................