The Sixth Arab-Israeli War: An Arab Perspective Dr. Abdel Monem Said Aly The sixth Arab-Israeli war, which began on July 12, 2006, and ended 34 days later, left behind a fragile situation guided by United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701 and guarded by a multinational force. As usual, the war was associated with risks of a much broader confrontation. It also created opportunities, however, for a peaceful breakthrough in a conflict that has eluded resolution for over half a century. The timing of the war, in political and strategic regional terms, and its theater—Lebanon—have yielded their own distinct characteristics. Most Middle East wars in the post–September 11 era have not been concluded; the violent confrontations in Afghanistan, Iraq, Somalia, Sudan, and the Palestinian territories are all cases in point. These conflicts continue festering like open wounds, with no realistic hopes of quick resolution. The recent war between Hezbollah and Israel has added another round to the agonies of the Arab-Israeli conflict, ending with a fragile situation along the Israeli-Lebanese border. The war also launched another wave of instability inside Lebanon, bringing with it new tensions among the country’s political and confessional groups. And the general confrontation between the West and Islamic fundamentalism has deepened to include a new theater of operations. I. Three Wars in One The sixth Arab-Israeli war defined a new pattern of warfare in the Middle East, in which the military confrontation represented not only the warring parties— October 2006 in this case, Israel and Hezbollah—but, rather, three levels of confrontation No. 11 encompassed in a single theater of operations. In the first of these, the war constituted another episode of the Arab–Israeli conflict. It reflected the general law of Arab-Israeli politics: that unless progress is made in Arab-Israeli peacemaking, violence in one manner or another will eventually erupt. And since no progress in regional peacemaking had been made since the failure of the summer 2000 Camp David talks and the subsequent introduction of the Clinton parameters in December of that year, violence was inevitable. The post–September 11 world made the vacuum in peacemaking all the more pronounced. Attempts at breakthroughs in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict through the Bush Initiative, the Road Map, and the Quartet have all failed to become serious political and diplomatic efforts, as opposed to superficial displays of attention to the conflict. The increasing problems confronting the Bush administration—its failures in Iraq and in the war on terror—have sealed the fate of Arab-Israeli peace efforts. The predictable violence resulting from the vacuum took several forms. The Palestinian second Intifada was the first response, leading eventually to the success of Hamas in the Palestinian elections. The aftermath of the Camp David failure then witnessed a number of mini Palestinian-Israeli wars, the most recent of which began on June 25, 2006, after the kidnapping of an Israeli soldier from an Israel Defense Forces (IDF) base inside Israeli territory. The war in Lebanon was only the most recent contribution to the filling of the same vacuum. And while this episode has ended, the war has not. This same war was also an expression of Lebanese domestic politics and an extension of the Lebanese civil war. The Taif Agreement that formally ended the Lebanese civil war in 1989 had stipulated the disarming of all Lebanese militias; subsequently, all these militias disarmed with the exception of Hezbollah, which not only remained armed but also maintained a monopoly of force in all of South Lebanon and in parts of Beirut. The withdrawal of Syrian forces from Lebanon on April 26, 2005, following the Cedar Revolution encouraged Lebanese political forces to demand Hezbollah’s disarmament through the so-called “national dialogue.” The balance of power in Abdel Monem Said Aly is Lebanese politics changed after the Syrians withdrew, and Hezbollah apparently thought that nothing would restore the balance better than a war with Israel. The Director of the Al Ahram Lebanese people were thus presented with an unpalatable choice: a war with Israel Center for Political & or another bloody civil war. Strategic Studies, Cairo, Egypt and a Senior Fellow A third context in which the recent war should be understood is as part of the broader at the Crown Center U.S. war on terror—or, even more generally, on fundamentalist Islam. The post– for Middle East Studies, September 11 war on terror has expanded from Afghanistan to Iraq, Iran, Syria, and the Palestinian territories—even to the shores of the Philippines. And the counter- Brandeis University. offensive waged against the United States now includes the resurgence of the Taliban in Afghanistan, the nuclearization of Iran, the fundamentalist resistance and terror in Iraq, the winning of elections by Hamas in Palestine and by the Muslim Brothers in Egypt, the triumph of the Sharia courts in Somalia, and the resurgence of al-Qaeda terror types and groups in Egypt and Algeria. The war launched by Hezbollah on July 12 and its subsequent perceived victory were part of this counter-offensive. Thus, for all practical purposes the recent war between Hezbollah and Israel constituted “three wars in one.” The Arab-Israeli dimension of the war was not different in kind from other episodes in the historical sequence of wars that have marked this conflict over the past six decades. The Lebanese civil war is basically local, similar to those in Somalia and Sudan. By contrast, it was the global dimension of the recent war that made it central to the conduct of regional politics and international relations. 2 Moreover, the basic issues involved in each of the three and should be held accountable for the huge bill that dimensions of the recent Hezbollah-Israel war are very Lebanon would have to pay in the war’s aftermath. different. At the heart of the Arab-Israeli conflict are the prospective terms of peacemaking. On the Lebanese Later, following the adoption of UNSC Resolution 1701 domestic front, the basic issue is the future of the Lebanese and as the arguments over “victory” and “defeat” became state, and the issue of “the state” in the Middle East at large. less pronounced, a third faction appeared in the Arab On the global level, however, the major issue concerns the media, denying victory to both sides on several grounds. In best manner of dealing with radical and fundamentalist evaluating this debate, three questions need to be addressed. Islam. Thus, while the three wars are related geographically First, what were the arguments presented by each of these and historically, in diplomatic and political terms they have factions? Second, why was there such confusion over an issue very different implications, and they have produced quite that would not have been a subject of debate in the 1960s distinct results. and 1970s? And finally, what does this confusion imply, and what conclusions can be drawn from such divergent Arab II. The Arab Debate perceptions of the recent war? With this reality of “three wars in one” in mind, the debate From the outset of the war, opinion in the Arab media varied that ensued in both Israeli and Arab politics and media between support for Hezbollah and condemnations of its about who won the recent war seems largely irrelevant. The behavior as irresponsible and as having led to a deteriorated war constituted merely one battle in a continual conflict state of security in Lebanon. The voice of the Arab street, in which concepts of “victory” and “defeat” not only are however was clear in supporting Nasrallah and his militia. misleading but are harmful for policy purposes. Indeed, As soon as the war broke out, protests shook Arab streets, viewing the war from this perspective raises more questions with Hezbollah banners held high. Islamic sentiments were than it provides answers. Nevertheless, this seems to have mobilized for the struggle with Israel and became a rallying been the prevailing pastime of analysts during the five weeks cry in support of Hezbollah. Some newspapers distributed of fighting and in the war’s immediate aftermath.1 free posters of Nasrallah, depicting him as “the symbol of resistance,” and bumper stickers with his picture began to In Israel, viewing the war in winners-and-losers terms was appear on cars roaming Arab streets. part of the democratic process, coupled with the effects of the “new media.” In the Arab world, it was part of the Moreover, as soon as UNSC resolution 1701 was adopted and mobilization efforts of the various political systems, fueled the cease-fire began to be implemented, Arab newspapers by the new Arab media. Never in the history of the Arab- and television channels became even more excited—and Israeli conflict had the Arab media quoted the Israeli press celebratory with respect to the “victorious” Arab militia. with such frequency. In this context, Israel was at a serious For example, the Egyptian newspaper Al-Ahram headlined disadvantage because it could not affect the media output: a story “Hezbollah Confrontation: The Biggest Failure in It lost the “war of the narratives” not because it lost the Israeli War History,”2 and Nawaf Al-Zaro, a writer for the war, but because it won it in a manner that was slower and Al-Jazeera website, opined that “the military, political and less decisive than anticipated. In the long run, however, the security institutions in Israel went into a phase of internal failure of the Arab side, in this case Hezbollah, to conduct the imbalance in the heels of the total defeat that Israel has kind of self-examination exercised in Israel in the aftermath suffered in the last Lebanon war.”3 Similarly, Habib Al- of the war will lead it to new defeats.