Annals of the „Constantin Brâncuşi” University of Târgu Jiu, Economy Series, Issue 3/2020 STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE SITUATION DETERMINED BY COVID 19 IN ROMANIA CORNELIA TOMESCU-DUMITRESCU UNIVERSITATEA ”CONSTANTIN BRÂNCUȘI” DIN TÂRGU-JIU, ROMÂNIA Email: [email protected] ELEODOR ALIN MIHAI UNIVERSITATEA DIN CRAIOVA, ROMÂNIA Email: [email protected] Abstract: The first confirmed death from coronavirus infection occurred on 9 January 2020. On January 23, 2020, the Wuhan center was placed in quarantine, where all public transport in Wuhan and Wuhan were suspended. The nearby cities of Huanggang, Ezhou, Chibi, Jingzhou and Zhejiang have also been quarantined since 24 January 2020. Coronavirus 2019-nCoV was identified in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, after people developed pneumonia without a clear cause and for which existing vaccines or treatments were not effective. The virus shows evidence of person-to- person transmission, and the transmission rate (infection rate) appears to have escalated in mid-January, from other cases than those reported by China so far. The first cases of coronavirus in Romania and the Republic of Moldova were confirmed on February 26 and March 7, 2020 respectively. Keywords: coronavirus pandemic, quarantine, number of deaths, number of diseases JEL classification: C 30 1. Introducere The 2019–20 coronavirus pandemic, also known as the Wuhan coronavirus, outbreak of Chinese pneumonia or Wuhan pneumonia began on December 12, 2019 in downtown Wuhan, China, when a group of people with pneumonia of unknown cause appeared, was mainly related to the stall owners who worked at the Huanan fish market, who also sold live animals. Subsequently, Chinese scientists isolated a new coronavirus, called 2019-nCoV, which was found to be at least 70% similar in the sequence of SARS-CoV genes. [1] [2] Coronavirus 2019-nCoV was identified in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, after people developed pneumonia without a clear cause and for which existing vaccines or treatments were not effective. The virus shows evidence of person-to- person transmission, and the transmission rate (infection rate) [3] appears to have escalated in mid- January, from other cases than those reported by China so far. [ 4] The first cases of coronavirus in Romania and the Republic of Moldova were confirmed on February 26 [5] and March 7, 2020 [6] respectively. On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization declared the coronavirus outbreak a pandemic. [7] The first suspected cases were reported on 31 December 2019, [17] the first cases of symptomatic disease occurring just over three weeks earlier on 8 December 2019. [18] The market was closed on 1 January 2020 and people who showed signs and symptoms of coronavirus infection were isolated. More than 9,930 people, who came into close contact with potentially infected people, were initially monitored. Following the development of a specific diagnostic chain polymerization reaction test for infection detection, the presence of 2019-nCoV was subsequently confirmed in 41 people in the Wuhan cluster, [19] two of whom were subsequently reported as married couples, one of whom had not been present on the market and three other members of the same family working at the market's seafood stands. [20] [21] The first confirmed death from coronavirus infection occurred on 9 January 2020. [22] On January 23, 2020, the Wuhan center was placed in quarantine, where all public transport in Wuhan and Wuhan were suspended. The nearby cities of Huanggang, Ezhou, Chibi, Jingzhou and Zhejiang have also been quarantined since 24 January 2020. [23] [24] „ACADEMICA BRÂNCUŞI” PUBLISHER, ISSN 2344 – 3685/ISSN-L 1844 - 7007 5 Annals of the „Constantin Brâncuşi” University of Târgu Jiu, Economy Series, Issue 3/2020 2. Coronavirus pandemic in Romania In Romania, initially only cases of import from Italy were confirmed to persons who came from this country or who had contact with a person from this country. [4] An important source of infection in Romania are people who came from abroad who did not isolate themselves at home or who lied that they were not in an area affected by COVID-19 infection. [5] Former Minister of Health Victor Costache said that of the 277 cases confirmed by March 19, 2020, more than 80 percent were import cases and the rest were contacts of import cases. [6] Several criminal cases have been opened to thwart the fight against diseases, which target people who have not been in self-isolation at home for 14 days and those who have not reported that they came from the affected areas or have not reported that they had contact with a person. tested positive for coronavirus, among them are the parliamentarian Vergil Chițac and the retired MIA officer hospitalized at the Dimitrie Gerota hospital. [7] People returning from countries included in the red zones will be quarantined, and those returning from countries included in the yellow zones will stay in solitary confinement at home for 14 days. The list of countries included in the red and yellow zones can be consulted on the page of the National Institute of Public Health under the title: "List of areas affected by COVID 19". [8] The number of cases confirmed by COVID-19, isolated persons and quarantined persons in Romania can be consulted on the page of the National Institute of Public Health. The information of the Strategic Communication Group on the evolution of the epidemic in Romania and the measures taken by the authorities can be consulted on the page of the Ministry of Internal Affairs. 3. Statistical analysis of the situation of COVID-19 in Romania In the following we will perform a statistical analysis to see to what extent and whether the number of diseases is influenced by the number of tests and what other factors may influence the number of deaths caused by Covid-19. To perform the analysis with linear multiple regression we will consider the following variables: - Number of deaths due to COVID 19 - Number of tests for COVID 19 - Number of cases confirmed with COVID 19 - Decade The data are those presented in table no. 1. Table no. 1 Data on the number of tests, the number of confirmed cases and the number of deaths caused by COVID- 19 Total Decada confirmed Total cases of tests COVID-19 Total confirmed Entity Code Date (tests) (cases) deaths (deaths) Romania ROU apr 1, 2020 26609 2245 69 1 Romania ROU apr 2, 2020 28483 2460 85 1 Romania ROU apr 3, 2020 31657 2738 94 1 Romania ROU apr 4, 2020 36092 3183 133 1 Romania ROU apr 5, 2020 38623 3613 141 1 Romania ROU apr 6, 2020 40987 3864 148 1 Romania ROU apr 7, 2020 43578 4057 157 1 Romania ROU apr 8, 2020 47207 4417 182 1 Romania ROU apr 9, 2020 51802 4761 209 1 Romania ROU apr 10, 55430 5202 229 2 „ACADEMICA BRÂNCUŞI” PUBLISHER, ISSN 2344 – 3685/ISSN-L 1844 - 7007 6 Annals of the „Constantin Brâncuşi” University of Târgu Jiu, Economy Series, Issue 3/2020 2020 apr 11, 2 Romania ROU 2020 59272 5467 257 apr 12, 2 Romania ROU 2020 62328 5990 282 apr 13, 2 Romania ROU 2020 67204 6300 306 apr 14, 2 Romania ROU 2020 70097 6633 318 apr 15, 2 Romania ROU 2020 74827 6879 344 apr 16, 2 Romania ROU 2020 79629 7216 372 apr 17, 2 Romania ROU 2020 85805 7707 387 apr 18, 2 Romania ROU 2020 90991 8067 400 apr 19, 2 Romania ROU 2020 93611 8418 417 apr 20, 3 Romania ROU 2020 98491 8746 434 apr 21, 3 Romania ROU 2020 101552 8936 451 apr 22, 3 Romania ROU 2020 106357 9242 483 apr 23, 3 Romania ROU 2020 113336 9710 508 apr 24, 3 Romania ROU 2020 121602 10096 527 apr 25, 3 Romania ROU 2020 126645 10417 552 apr 26, 3 Romania ROU 2020 136518 10635 575 apr 27, 3 Romania ROU 2020 143834 11036 608 apr 28, 3 Romania ROU 2020 150309 11339 631 apr 29, 3 Romania ROU 2020 166993 11616 650 apr 30, 3 Romania ROU 2020 175374 11978 675 mai 1, 4 Romania ROU 2020 183688 12240 717 mai 2, 4 Romania ROU 2020 190540 12567 744 mai 3, 4 Romania ROU 2020 195508 12732 771 mai 4, 4 Romania ROU 2020 199068 13163 780 Romania ROU mai 5, 205842 13512 803 4 „ACADEMICA BRÂNCUŞI” PUBLISHER, ISSN 2344 – 3685/ISSN-L 1844 - 7007 7 Annals of the „Constantin Brâncuşi” University of Târgu Jiu, Economy Series, Issue 3/2020 2020 mai 6, 4 Romania ROU 2020 217139 13837 827 mai 7, 4 Romania ROU 2020 226613 14107 858 mai 8, 4 Romania ROU 2020 237280 14499 876 mai 9, 4 Romania ROU 2020 248056 14811 898 Source: europa.eu We will first determine which is the dependent variable and which are the independent variables. Thus, the number of deaths due to COVID 19 is the dependent variable, and the number of tests for COVID 19, the number of confirmed cases with COVID 19 and the Decade are the independent variables. Descriptive Statistics Mean Std. Deviation N Total_confirmed_deaths 458,92 254,039 39 Total_tests 113563,51 66736,774 39 Total_confirmed_cases_ofC 8575,28 3814,127 39 OVID19 Decada 2,46 1,120 39 Variables Entered/Removedb Variables Variables Model Entered Removed Method 1 Decada, . Enter Total_tests, Total_confirme d_cases_ofCO VID19 a. All requested variables entered. b. Dependent Variable: Total_confirmed_deaths Correlations Total_confirme Total_confirme d_cases_ofCOV d_deaths Total_tests ID19 Decada Pearson Correlation Total_confirmed_deaths 1,000 ,991 ,997 ,971 Total_tests ,991 1,000 ,978 ,952 Total_confirmed_cases_ofC ,997 ,978 1,000 ,967 OVID19 Decada ,971 ,952 ,967 1,000 Sig. (1-tailed) Total_confirmed_deaths . ,000 ,000 ,000 Total_tests ,000 . ,000 ,000 Total_confirmed_cases_ofC ,000 ,000 . ,000 OVID19 Decada ,000 ,000 ,000 .