A historic review and outlook of Dubai’s Real Estate sector from 2008 to 2016 Dubai Real Estate Report Q4 2016 Content 03 06 10 Dubai Dubai About Asteco Historic Review Rental Rates and Outlook Sales Prices 2016 Highlights Property Map 2017 Outlook 2 Dubai Real Estate Report - Q4 2016 Dubai Historic Review and Outlook Growth Recession Recovery and Growth Stabilisation Slowdown 2002-2008 2009-2011 2012-2013 2014-2015 2016 • Since the Dubai Government • The financial crisis at the end of • The market began to show signs of • The market peaked in Q2 2014 • Historically, both the residential sales permitted the ownership of property 2008 resulted in significant job recovery in 2012 when the Euro Crisis and corrected thereafter due to a and leasing market have, by and large, on a freehold / leasehold basis to non- losses, defaults, distressed sales and and Arab Spring conflict led to Dubai combination of factors such as the moved in a similar direction based GCC nationals in 2002, the overseas consequently a decline in rental rates being an attractive alternative and doubling of the registration fee, the partly on economic performance, interest in the local market was and sales prices. safe haven to invest and live in. reduction in LTV’s, low oil prices and market confidence, Investor / Tenant exceptional and resulted in the launch a strong US dollar. This was especially profile and regulatory environment. of numerous development projects. • Rates corrected sharply between • Established communities and quality pronounced in the residential sales In fact, rentals generally fared better 2009 and 2010; this was compounded buildings experienced increased market. than sales as residents preferred • Nakheel, Dubai Properties and by increased supply and subdued demand and newer developments leasing over home ownership. Emaar established themselves as the demand. saw improved take-up in line with • Rental rates remained broadly stable dominant Master Developers in the enhanced infrastructure and as the handover of new supply was • Residential rental rates experienced DUBAI market launching a range of villa and • Asteco also witnessed a noticeable connectivity. slower than anticipated. downward pressure on the back of apartment projects across Dubai. increase in Tenant movement from increased supply. neighbouring Abu Dhabi and Sharjah • The rise in competitive finance options • Due to the substantial number of • However, the delivery of properties due to decreased rental rates in offered by banks also contributed to launches witnessed in 2013, 2014 • A decline in sales prices was less in Dubai was slower than anticipated, Dubai. overall activity growth and stimulated and 2015, concerns of an oversupply pronounced due to a broader Buyer which resulted in an undersupply home ownership. encouraged Developers to focus profile with a longer term view on causing both rental rates and sales • Sales activity remained subdued predominantly on the mid and investing and living in Dubai. prices to spiral out of control. although transaction levels picked up • Whilst increased job security and affordable housing sector. slightly by the end of 2011, which was market confidence created demand • 2016 saw an impressive amount of • Sales prices were inflated further due when the market bottomed out. for Tenants to upgrade, rapid rental • In order to stimulate Buyer interest, new project launches and deliveries to rampant market speculation and growth restricted others to move Developers began to offer incentives giving Tenants and Investors limited Real Estate laws being in place within Dubai and thus resulted in an such as extended payment plans significant choice in established to curb such activity. upsurge in relocations to the Northern during the post completion period. communities as well as newer areas at Emirates in search of more affordable all price levels. accommodation. • Lower deposits also made off-plan sales a more attractive option • Tenants drove the market as more and • In 2013, Dubai was awarded to host compared with the minimum 25% more people looked for value-for- Expo 2020. This announcement saw down payment required for a money, which resulted in affordable an increase in new project launches mortgaged property. developments out-performing luxury near the Al Maktoum International accommodation. Airport site and the Dubai South Master Plan experienced increased • Although we believe there to be a demand. general trend in the overall market, the various sectors and locations are • In September 2013, Dubai becoming increasingly fragmented. Government doubled the land registration fee to 4%, and new loan- • The office market has seen little to-value rules were introduced to limit change over the last year due to property speculation. limited demand. © Asteco Property Management, 2017 3 Dubai Whilst rental rates were under pressure on the back of a large number of handovers, average sales prices 2016 Highlights remained broadly stable in 2016 despite growing product launches. This was mainly due to developers reducing Supply completed price points and hence unit sizes to entice take-up. in 2016 Leasing Sales 8,750 apartments Apartments Apartments • Apartment rental rates declined by 5% over the final quarter and 6% • Overall, sales prices remained relatively unchanged over the quarter over the year. and this year, which Asteco believes signals the bottoming out of the 5,000 villas and highlights market. Residential • Although drops were fairly even across the affordable, mid and town houses high end sectors, Asteco noticed select locations faring better than • Some areas experienced marginal increases on the back of improved others due to an uneven supply-demand balance. community conditions while others suffered from lack of demand due to a disadvantageous location, quality and oversupply. • In addition, Asteco noted a growing disparity in rates between well maintained quality buildings with superior facilities compared with Villas 4 million sq ft more mature buildings with limited amenities. office space (BUA) • Similar to the apartment sector, average villa sale prices were Villas generally flat over last quarter. The overall annual change was minimal at negative 2%. DUBAI • Average villa rates dropped by 3% quarterly and 5% annually. • Well established communities in prime locations such as Emirates • New handovers such as Mira in Arabian Ranches Phase 2, several Living and Arabian Ranches saw double digit growth, whilst rates for Akoya sub-communities in Dubailand, various villa projects or developments with supply growth potential declined. extensions in Jumeirah Village, Jumeirah Park and Mudon have Selection of projects exacerbated the softening. Although transaction volume and value levels in 2016 were below those in 2015, Asteco recorded strong performance for quality products offered completed in 2016 Landlords, especially corporates, offered incentives such as increasing the with unique selling points in popular locations. number of cheques accepted and longer rent-free periods to entice take- up, especially in newly handed over communities that still lack supporting Off-plan properties were primarily driven by the price point as opposed to infrastructure, retail and leisure facilities. Single unit Owners were more the rate per square foot, which resulted in smaller unit sizes being offered. RESIDENTIAL inclined to reduce rental rates as prolonged vacancy rates are more likely Demand for such property was further amplified by flexible payment plans • Acacia Avenues: Hiliana Tower 3 – 137 units to affect their bottom line. to include increased post completion instalments and lower deposits. • Sustainable City: 500 villas • Palm Jumeirah: Azure Residences – 170 units • Jumeirah Golf Estates: Redwood • Office rental rates remained broadly stable mainly due to the overall • Average office sales prices continued their downward trend and subdued demand. recorded an average decline of 2% over the quarter and 5% annually. Park Phase 1 – 75 units Office • Arabian Ranches II: Mira (Phase • Enquiry levels were particularly low for large unit sizes as slow • There has been some demand from small businesses for piecemeal 1 and 2) – 632 units highlights market sentiment discouraged company expansions or new entries. offices for unit sizes below 2,000 square feet. • Dubai Silicon Oasis: Bhinghatti Apartments – 222 units COMMERCIAL • One JLT • The Butterfly • Park Lane Tower • Landmark Group HQ 4 Dubai Real Estate Report - Q4 2016 Dubai Asteco expects the market to reach a certain level of maturity leading up to the Expo 2020 and the completion of Al Maktoum International Airport, which is intended to fully accommodate Emirates Airline’s operations in 2025. Supply expected 2017 Outlook Both these considerable undertakings will create large employment opportunities and therefore increase the requirement for commercial, industrial and residential real estate significantly. In the meantime, rental rates will come under pressure due to continuous new supply, whilst sales prices are expected to remain broadly stable. in 2017 Leasing Sales 31,500 apartments • Tenants will be offered a significant choice of completed property in • There is a wide choice of properties available and with the current 2017 in both established and new communities. prices and increased finance options, Asteco believes transaction levels have the potential to rise beyond those experienced over the • Units will be available across all affordability levels. last six months.