India's Ad Hoc Arsenal Direction or Drift in Defence Policy? Stockholm International Peace Research Institute SIPRI is an independent international institute for research into problems of peace and conflict, especially those of arms control and disarmament. It was established in 1966 to commemorate Sweden's 150 years of unbroken peace. The Institute is financed mainly by the Swedish Parliament. The staff, the Governing Board and the Scientific Council are international. The Governing Board and the Scientific Council are not responsible for the views expressed in the publications of the Institute. Governing Board Professor Daniel Tarschys, MP, Chairman (Sweden) Sir Brian Urquhart, Vice-chairman (United Kingdom) Dr Oscar Arias Sanchez (Costa Rica) Dr Gyula Horn (Hungary) Professor Catherine Kelleher (USA) Dr Lothar Riihl (Germany) The Director Director Dr Adam Daniel Rotfeld (Poland) Stockholm International Peace Research Institute Pipers vag 28 S-170 73 Solna Sweden Cable SIPRI Telephone 46 81655 97 00 Telefax 46 81655 97 33 India's Ad Hoc Arsenal Direction or Drift in Defence Policy? Chris Smith OXFORD UNIVERSITY PRESS 1994 Oxford University Press, Walton Street, Oxford OX2 6DP Oxford New York Toronto Delhi Bombay Calcutta Madras Karachi Kuala Lumpur Singapore Hong Kong Tokyo Nairobi Dares Salaam Cape Town Melbourne Auckland Madrid and associated companies in Berlin Ibadan Oxford is a trade mark of Oxford University Press Published in the United States by Oxford University Press Inc., New York @ SIPRI 1994 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without the prior permission in writing of Oxford University Press. Within the UK, exceptions are allowed in respect of any fair dealing for the purpose of research or private study, or criticism or review, as permitted under the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act, 1988, or in the case of reprographic reproduction in accordance with the terms of the licences issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency. Enquiries concerning reproduction outside these terms and in other countries should be sent to the Rights Department, Oxford University Press, at the address above British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data Data available Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Smith, Chris, 1955- India's ad hoc arsena1:direction or drift in defence policy ?/Chris Smith. "SIPRI" Includes bibliographical references (p. ) and index. 1. India-Military policy. 2. India-History, Military-20th century. I. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. 11. Title. UA840.S624 1994 355". 033554--dc20 9344216 ISBN 0-19-829168-X (alk. paper) Typeset and originated by Stockholm International Peace Research Institute Printed in Great Britain on acid-free paper by Biddies Ltd, Guildford and King's Lynn Contents Preface Acknowledgements Acronyms and abbreviations 1. Introduction 2. India: regional security from Aryan times to the present I. From the Aryans to the British: the legacy of invasion 11. Independence, partition and the war of 1947 111. Statehood and insecurity IV. Indian security perceptions and international politics V. Territorial integrity and the threat from the north-west VI. Pakistan: limitations and capabilities VII. India's national security problems and Sri Lanka VIII. Bangladesh and the Himalayan kingdoms IX. The China question X. The Indian Ocean XI. Domestic, regional and international: India and the seamless web of security Figure 2.1. The north-west frontier between India and Pakistan Figure 2.2. The Rajastan desert and the Rann of Kutch 3. Defence policy and practice, 1947-62 I. Introduction II. Defence before independence 111. Independence and the formation of defence policy IV. The Blackett Report V. The Indian Army VI. The Indian Air Force VII. The Indian Navy VDI. Actors and institutions: the dynamics of defence policy DC. Conclusion Table 3.1. Selected Indian Air Force and Royal Air Force procurement, 1946-6 1 Table 3.2. Military expenditure and procurement of sophisticated armament in India and Pakistan, 1948-62 Figure 3.1. Comparison of the rise and fall in major weapon supplies to India and Pakistan, 1950-69 Figure 3.2. Comparison of the rise and fall in major weapon supplies and defence expenditure in India, 1950-69 vi INDIA'S AD HOC ARSENAL 4. From humiliation to regional hegemony: the maturing of defence policy, 1962-80 I. The Sino-Indian War of 1962 11. Defence policy 111. The 1964 rearmament programme IV. The strengthening of Soviet-Indian relations V. The 1965 Indo-Pakistani War: consolidation and a new direction VI. The 1971 Indo-Pakistani War: the Third Round VII. The Soviet Union and India: burgeoning dependency VIII. The Janata period: reduced dependency and increased procurement IX. Indian defence policy, 1962-80: answers in search of problems 5. Indian arms imports, 1980-88 I. The new cold war and South Asia II. The Indian response III. The Indian Army IV. The Indian Navy V. The Indian Air Force VI. Procurement in search of a policy? 6. India's defence sector, 1988-91 I. 1988: the end of an era 11. The Indian economy and the road to debt 111. The defence sector in the late 1980s IV. The end of the rupee-rouble trade V. India enters the arms bazaar 7. Indigenous defence production: the failure of policy implementation I. Indigenous defence production in the South 11. Making the commitment 111. Indigenous production for the Army IV. Indigenous production for the Navy V. Indigenous production for the Air Force VI. The light combat aircraft: forward to the past? VII. Indigenous defence production: unfulfilled expectations 8. Nuclear weapons and delivery systems I. India and nuclear weapons: the early years 11. India and nuclear policy before the Non-Proliferation Treaty 111. Rejecting the Non-Proliferation Treaty IV. 'Pokhran'-India's nuclear test V. Nuclear policy under the Janata regime VI. Nuclear issues in the 1980s CONTENTS vii VII. India, nuclear proliferation and the new world order VIII. India, nuclear weapons and the NPT in the 1990s DC. Nuclear stability in South Asia X. Delivery systems 9. Defence decision making in India: the policy-making process I. The making of defence policy 11. The decision making process and the political backdrop Figure 9.1. The decision-making process in India before l966 Figure 9.2. The decision-making process in India since 1966 10. Conclusion Appendix A. UN Security Council resolutions and decisions on India-Pakistan in 1948 Appendix B. Agreement on bilateral relations between the Government of India and the Government of Pakistan Appendix C. Trade in and licensed production of major conventional weapons by India and Pakistan, 1950-92 Appendix D. Bibliography Index Preface During recent years and especially since the end of the Persian Gulf War, international concern over the flow of military technology from North to South has risen dramatically. Increasingly, however, there is a growing awareness of our inability to understand why developing countries invest scarce resources on such a scale in ambitious and often destabilizing defence programmes. While there is now a widespread understanding that at the East-West level defence and security policies were influenced as much by internal, domestic considerations as by the reactions to the actions of perceived enemies, our understanding of what motivates developing countries was and still is much less clear. This book on the dynamics of India's defence policy since 1947 is an attempt to explain why India has invested considerable resources in its armed forces since independence and markedly during the 1980s. It is the first in a series of SIPRI publications on the domestic influences on the defence policies and postures in developing countries. Over the past two years, India has seen economic and political sovereignty slip slowly but undeniably from the grasp of national decision makers, largely as a result of increasing intervention by multilateral aid agencies. The ideals which influenced political economy for decades are now a memory. Ironically, in its attempts to ensure national security, regional hegemony and simultaneously make a mark on the international stage, the inflated defence budget has contributed to the loss of precisely what Indians have consistently voted for and worked towards preserving-security and sovereignty. National security has been acquired at the expense of economic security. This is a dilemma which many countries are being forced to confront. The problems call for broad political debate on the fundamental principles which guide defence and foreign policies. While all nation states have the right to acquire the means to national security, there should always be close consideration of how much is enough and at which point the means defeat the ends. In this book, SIPRI hopes to stimulate debate on the direction which Indian defence policy has taken over the past four decades. Many other countries will have to consider their own in the coming years. More of the same will not bring India increased security, in the broadest sense. Nor will it acquire for India either the security or the international prominence the nation so obviously deserves. Adam Daniel Rotfeld Director of SIPRI January 1994 Acknowledgements This book is the culmination of several years' work on South Asian security issues. Over this time, many people from several countries have helped me in various ways to acquire information and improve my understanding of Indian defence issues. Financial support has come from a number of sources. In the United States I would like to thank Walter Anderson, Richard Cronin, Pranay Gupte, George Perkovich and, especially, Stephen Cohen for their help and advice. In Canada, Lorne Kavic spent a good deal of time with me discussing the 1947-62 period and his comments were invaluable for what turned out to be a very difficult chapter. In Britain, I have received a great deal of support from friends and colleagues at the Science Policy Research Unit of the University of Sussex between 1980 and 1983: the Technology and the Arms Race seminars were an important influence during the planning and preparation of this book.