LBNL-4472E ERNEST ORLANDO LAWRENCE BERKELEY NATIONAL LABORATORY China’s Energy and Carbon Emissions Outlook to 2050 Nan Zhou, David Fridley, Michael McNeil, Nina Zheng, Jing Ke, and Mark Levine China Energy Group Energy Analysis Department Environmental Energy Technologies Division Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory April 2011 This work was supported by the China Sustainable Energy Program of the Energy Foundation through the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231. Disclaimer This document was prepared as an account of work sponsored by the United States Government. 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Table of Contents List of Tables .......................................................................................................... iii List of Figures .......................................................................................................... iv Abstract .................................................................................................................. vii Executive Summary ............................................................................................. viii Introduction .............................................................................................................. 1 Drivers of Energy Demand ..................................................................................... 2 Scenarios ......................................................................................................................................... 2 Continued Improvement Scenario (in energy and carbon intensity) .............................................. 2 Accelerated Improvement Scenario (in energy and carbon intensity) ............................................ 3 Continued Improvement with CCS Scenario .................................................................................... 3 Macro Economic Drivers ................................................................................................................. 4 Key Drivers ....................................................................................................................................... 4 Sensitivities ...................................................................................................................................... 6 Drivers of Residential Energy Demand ........................................................................................... 7 Key Drivers ...................................................................................................................................... 7 Sensitivities .................................................................................................................................... 10 Drivers of Commercial Energy Demand ........................................................................................ 10 Key Drivers ..................................................................................................................................... 10 Sensitivities .................................................................................................................................... 13 Drivers of Industrial Energy Demand ............................................................................................ 14 Key Drivers ..................................................................................................................................... 14 Sensitivities .................................................................................................................................... 18 Drivers of Transportation Energy Demand ................................................................................... 19 Key Drivers ..................................................................................................................................... 19 Sensitivities .................................................................................................................................... 23 Drivers of Transformation Sector ................................................................................................. 24 Fossil Fuel Power Generation ........................................................................................................ 24 Non-Fossil Fuels and Renewables .................................................................................................. 26 Sensitivities .................................................................................................................................... 27 Drivers of Energy Extraction ......................................................................................................... 28 Coal Mining .................................................................................................................................... 29 Oil and Natural Gas Extraction ....................................................................................................... 29 i Coking ............................................................................................................................................ 29 Oil Refining ..................................................................................................................................... 29 Aggregated National Results ................................................................................. 29 Energy Consumption ..................................................................................................................... 29 Carbon Emissions .......................................................................................................................... 34 Coal ............................................................................................................................................... 38 Oil .................................................................................................................................................. 39 Electricity ....................................................................................................................................... 40 Sectoral Results ..................................................................................................... 40 Residential Buildings ..................................................................................................................... 40 Commercial Buildings ................................................................................................................... 42 Industry ......................................................................................................................................... 44 Transportation .............................................................................................................................. 46 Power Generation ......................................................................................................................... 52 Energy Extraction .......................................................................................................................... 55 Uncertainties ................................................................................................................................. 57 Assumptions in Fossil Energy Supply Scenarios ................................................ 60 Coal ............................................................................................................................................... 60 Oil .................................................................................................................................................. 62 Natural Gas ................................................................................................................................... 62 Conclusions ............................................................................................................. 63 Acknowledgments .................................................................................................. 64 References ............................................................................................................... 65 ii List of Tables Table 1 Key Assumptions of Two Scenarios .................................................................................................. 3 Table 2 Key Macroeconomic Parameters for All Scenarios .......................................................................... 6 Table 3 Cement Production and Energy Use Scenario