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Assessment of Reasonable Progress for Regional Haze In MANE-VU Class I Areas Methodology for Source Selection, Evaluation of Control Options, and Four Factor Analysis Page i Table of Contents Chapter Page List of Acronyms .................................................................................................................v Executive Summary ......................................................................................................... vii 1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 1-1 Background ....................................................................................................................... 1-1 Determination of Emission Source Categories and Individual Sources Most Responsible for Regional Haze in MANE-VU Class I Areas ............................................................... 1-2 Approach to Demonstrating Reasonable Progress ............................................................ 1-6 References ......................................................................................................................... 1-8 2 Source Category Analysis: Electric Generating Units (EGUs).................................. 2-1 Source Category Description............................................................................................. 2-1 Evaluation of Control Options .......................................................................................... 2-2 Four Factor Analysis of Potential Control Scenarios for EGUs ....................................... 2-6 References ....................................................................................................................... 2-16 3 Analysis of Selected Electric Generating Units (EGUs)............................................... 3-1 EGU Facility Controls....................................................................................................... 3-1 Integrated Planning Model (IPM®) Analysis .................................................................... 3-2 Information Obtained from State Agencies....................................................................... 3-6 References ....................................................................................................................... 3-18 EGU Attachment 1 - Illustrative Scrubber Costs (1999 $) for Representative MW and Heat Rates under the Assumptions in EPA Base Case 2004 .......................................... 3-19 EGU Attachment 2 - Engineering Methodology Used to Calculate $/ton Pollutant Reduction......................................................................................................................... 3-20 4 Source Category Analysis: Industrial, Commercial, and Institutional Boilers......... 4-1 Source Category Description............................................................................................. 4-1 Evaluation of Control Options .......................................................................................... 4-3 Four Factor Analysis of Potential Control Scenarios for ICI Boilers ............................... 4-9 References ....................................................................................................................... 4-15 5 Analysis of Selected Industrial, Commercial, and Institutional Boilers .................... 5-1 Source Category Description............................................................................................. 5-1 Information Obtained from State Agencies....................................................................... 5-1 6 Source Category Analysis: Kilns ................................................................................... 6-1 Source Category Description............................................................................................. 6-1 Evaluation of SO2 Emission Control Options ................................................................... 6-3 Four Factor Analysis of Potential Control Scenarios for Kilns......................................... 6-9 References ....................................................................................................................... 6-13 Assessment of Reasonable Progress for Regional Haze In MANE-VU Class I Areas Methodology for Source Selection, Evaluation of Control Options, and Four Factor Analysis Page ii Table of Contents – continued Chapter Page 7 Analysis of Selected Kilns ............................................................................................... 7-1 Source Category Description............................................................................................. 7-1 Information Obtained from State Agencies....................................................................... 7-1 8 Heating Oil....................................................................................................................... 8-1 Background ....................................................................................................................... 8-1 Four Factor Analysis of Potential Control Scenarios for Emissions from Heating Oil Combustion ....................................................................................................................... 8-2 References ......................................................................................................................... 8-8 9 Residential Wood Combustion....................................................................................... 9-1 Background ....................................................................................................................... 9-1 Four Factor Analysis of Potential Control Scenarios for Residential Wood Combustion ....................................................................................................................... 9-9 References ....................................................................................................................... 9-15 10 Residential Wood Combustion – Outdoor Wood Fired Boilers................................ 10-1 Background ..................................................................................................................... 10-1 Four Factor Analysis of Potential Control Scenarios for Outdoor Wood-Fired Boilers ............................................................................................................................. 10-3 References ....................................................................................................................... 10-6 Assessment of Reasonable Progress for Regional Haze In MANE-VU Class I Areas Methodology for Source Selection, Evaluation of Control Options, and Four Factor Analysis Page iii Table of Contents – continued Table Page Table I Summary of Results from the Four Factor Analysis...................................................... viii Table 2.1 SO2 Control Options for Coal-fired EGU Boilers ...................................................... 2-3 Table 2.2 Marginal Costs of Emission Reductions (Allowance Prices) Calculated by Integrated Planning Model (IPM®) for the CAIR Base Case and CAIR Plus Runs (2006 $/ton) ..... 2-7 Table 2.3 NOX and SO2 Emissions from the Electric Power Sector (Thousand Tons) ............. 2-8 Table 2.4 Recent Average Coal Prices from Various Locations in the U.S. (12/2006) ($/ton) ................................................................................................................................ 2-9 Table 2.5 Average U.S. Bituminous and Subbituminous Coal Prices (2006 dollars/ton).......... 2-9 Table 2.6 Estimated Cost Ranges for SO2 Control Options for Coal-fired EGU Boilers (2006 dollars/ton of SO2 Reduced) ................................................................................. 2-13 Table 3.1 Integrated Planning Model (IPM® version 2.1.9) CAIR Plus Results for the Top 30 EGUs Responsible for Visibility Impairment in MANE-VU Class I Areas ........ 3-4 Table 3.2 Point Source Information Collected for the Top 30 EGUs Responsible for Visibility Impairment in MANE-VU Class I Areas.......................................................... 3-7 Table 3.3 Comparison of Controls Predicted by Integrated Planning Model (IPM®) CAIR Plus Results versus Proposed/Planned Control Additions by the State/Facility (by 2018) at the Top 30 EGUs Responsible for Visibility Impairment in MANE-VU Class I Areas. 3-15 Table 4.1 Available SO2 Control Options for ICI Boilers.......................................................... 4-5 Table 4.2 Potential SO2 Reductions Through Fuel Switching.................................................. 4-10 Table 4.3 Estimated Dry Sorbent Injection (DSI) Costs for ICI Boilers.................................. 4-11 Table 4.4 Estimated Flue Gas Desulfurization (FGD) Costs for ICI Boilers (2006 dollars).... 4-12 Table 5.1 Point Source Information Collected from the Top 17 Industrial Facilities Responsible for Visibility Impairment in MANE-VU Class I Areas................................ 5-2 Table 6.1 SO2 Control Technologies for Cement Kilns ............................................................. 6-5 Table 6.2 SO2 Control Costs for AFGD Applied to Dry Kilns and Preheater Kilns (2006 dollars) .................................................................................................................. 6-10 Table 6.3 SO2 Control Costs for Wet FGD Applied to Dry