Open-Source Risk Estimation Software Prepared for Southern California Earthquake Center Zumberge Hall of Science 169 University of Southern California 3651 Trousdale Parkway Los Angeles, CA 90089-0742 By Keith Porter and Charles Scawthorn SPA Risk LLC Pasadena CA, USA 31 January 2007 SPA Project 10006-01-06-01 Report Version 1.01 Open-Source Risk Software SCEC 31 Jan 2007 ver. 1.01 Revision history Ver. Date Comments 1.0 31 Jan 2007 Initial release 1.01 31 Jan 2007 Minor editorial changes www.risk-agora.org/agora.htm 2 Open-Source Risk Software SCEC 31 Jan 2007 ver. 1.01 ABSTRACT Risk analysis is a critical link in the reduction of death and destruction due to earthquakes. Recognition of this has led to a rapid rise in demand for accurate, reliable and credible risk analyses. A bottleneck exists however between the wealth of high quality scientific data generated by researchers, and the demands of end-users – that bottleneck is the dearth of readily available, user-friendly transparent risk analysis software to meet the wide variety of end-user needs. This situation, of strong demand for user-adaptable software, has emerged in many fields and has been met by the Open Source movement with solutions such as Linux, OpenOffice, Mozilla and Wikipedia. This trend is also strong the seismic arena, as evidenced by the emergence of OpenSHA and OpenSEES serving critical parts of the field. Open-source risk (OSR) software meets this demand and also advances research and enhances training in a variety of catastrophe-related disciplines. This report documents the initial design of OpenRisk, an OSR application for quantifying risk to individual facilities and portfolios of facilities in terms of probabilistic repair costs, human casualties, and loss of use (“dollars, deaths, and downtime”). OpenRisk’s initial development will focus on seismic risk to individual facilities via traditional loss-estimation algorithms, with subsequent developments addressing portfolio risk, performance-based earthquake engineering analysis of single facilities, and eventually risk from wind and other hazards. This report is organized to first provide a development roadmap for OpenRisk, including a brief overview of the fields of loss estimation and performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE), a brief review of existing loss-estimation and PBEE software, a mission statement for OpenRisk and a proposed development approach. A significant part of the report then documents risk algorithms as a major first step towards programming. Next, an initial list and summary specification of software objects employing these algorithms is provided, together with draft development guidelines. Finally, initial data structures are documented, along with a seed database of structure types, seismic vulnerability functions, and damage probability matrices, followed by Appendices providing supporting information. As OpenRisk is anticipated to develop dynamically, so is this report, with releases and feedback requests available online at www.risk-agora.org/agora.htm. www.risk-agora.org/agora.htm 3 Open-Source Risk Software SCEC 31 Jan 2007 ver. 1.01 ACKNOWLDGEMENTS This research was funded by a subaward under the authority of Cooperative Agreement No. EAR-0106924 issued by the National Science Foundation, with CFDA No. 47.050. It benefited greatly from the advice of Dr Edward Field of the United States Geological Survey, along with Mssrs Nitin Gupta and Vipin Gupta, Dr Nico Luco, and Mr Eric Martinez. Thanks are also due to Caltech Professors James Beck, Paul Jennings, and Mani Chandy, USC Prof Thomas Jordon, and Mr Ron Eguchi of ImageCat, Inc., who offered to serve as OpenRisk drivers. www.risk-agora.org/agora.htm 4 Open-Source Risk Software SCEC 31 Jan 2007 ver. 1.01 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................. 9 1.1 A DYNAMIC REPORT ........................................................................................................................ 9 1.2 OVERVIEW ...................................................................................................................................... 9 1.3 ORGANIZATION OF THE REPORT .................................................................................................... 10 2 DEVELOPMENT ROADMAP .......................................................................................................... 11 2.1 A BRIEF HISTORY OF LOSS ESTIMATION SOFTWARE ....................................................................... 11 2.2 MISSION STATEMENT .................................................................................................................... 16 2.3 DEVELOPMENT APPROACH ............................................................................................................ 17 2.4 OPENRISK PROJECT MANAGEMENT................................................................................................ 18 2.5 DEVELOPMENT TIMELINE.............................................................................................................. 18 3 SINGLE-FACILITY RISK ALGORITHMS.................................................................................... 21 3.1 FACILITY EAL FROM VULNERABILITY AND HAZARD .................................................................... 21 3.2 FACILITY EAL FROM DAMAGE PROBABILITY MATRIX AND HAZARD ............................................. 23 3.3 FACILITY EAL FROM DAMAGE EXCEEDANCE MATRIX AND HAZARD............................................. 24 3.4 FACILITY PML FROM VULNERABILITY FUNCTION AND HAZARD ................................................... 25 3.5 FACILITY PML FROM A DAMAGE PROBABILITY MATRIX AND HAZARD ......................................... 26 3.6 FACILITY PML FROM A DAMAGE EXCEEDANCE MATRIX AND HAZARD ......................................... 27 3.7 BENEFIT-COST RATIO FOR FACILITY REDESIGN OR RETROFIT ........................................................ 28 3.8 CALCULATIONS TO BE SPECIFIED AT A LATER DATE ...................................................................... 29 4 PORTFOLIO RISK ALGORITHMS................................................................................................ 31 4.1 PORTFOLIO EAL FROM SITE EAL.................................................................................................. 31 4.2 SIMULTANEOUS OPERATIONAL FAILURE PROBABILITY.................................................................. 31 4.3 CALCULATIONS TO BE SPECIFIED AT A LATER DATE ...................................................................... 32 5 SOFTWARE MODULES TO BE DEVELOPED............................................................................. 35 6 SEED DATA......................................................................................................................................... 49 6.1 DATA STRUCTURES ....................................................................................................................... 49 6.2 ATC-13 VULNERABILITY FUNCTIONS ........................................................................................... 49 6.3 EARTHQUAKE EVENT SET DESCRIPTION ........................................................................................ 57 7 DESIGN PRINCIPLES AND DEVELOPMENT GUIDELINES ................................................... 59 8 REFERENCES CITED....................................................................................................................... 61 www.risk-agora.org/agora.htm 5 Open-Source Risk Software SCEC 31 Jan 2007 ver. 1.01 APPENDIX 1 – GLOSSARY ..................................................................................................................... 63 APPENDIX 2 – HAZUS ............................................................................................................................. 67 www.risk-agora.org/agora.htm 6 Open-Source Risk Software SCEC 31 Jan 2007 ver. 1.01 INDEX OF FIGURES Figure 1. Interpolating DEM between matrix entries to calculate PML........................... 28 www.risk-agora.org/agora.htm 7 Open-Source Risk Software SCEC 31 Jan 2007 ver. 1.01 INDEX OF TABLES Table 1. Timeline for development of OpenRisk ................................................................... 19 Table 2. Objects to be developed............................................................................................ 36 Table 3. Applications to be developed.................................................................................... 38 Table 4. Data and methods of the class “Generic building” ................................................... 39 Table 5. Data and methods of the class “Vulnerability function” .......................................... 40 Table 6. Data and methods of the class “Damage distribution” ............................................. 41 Table 7. Data and methods of the class “Fragility function”.................................................. 42 Table 8. Data and methods for the class “Hazard curve” ....................................................... 43 Table 9. Data and methods for the class “Event set IM” ........................................................ 43 Table 10. Data and methods for the class “Structure types”................................................... 44 Table 11. Data and methods for the class “Occupancy types” ............................................... 44 Table 12. Data and methods for the class “Intensity