Winter 2005 The BRIDGE LINKING ENGINEERING AND SOCIETY Large-Scale Activity-Recognition Systems Matthai Philipose Science and Engineering Research That Values the Planet Arne Jacobson and Daniel M. Kammen The Promise of Synthetic Biology Jay Keasling Agent-Based Modeling as a Decision-Making Tool Zoltán Toroczkai and Stephen Eubank Fuel Cells: Current Status and Future Challenges Stuart B. Adler Organic Semiconductors for Low-Cost Solar Cells Chiatzun Goh and Michael D. McGehee Promoting the technological welfare of the nation by marshalling the knowledge and insights of eminent members of the engineering profession. The BRIDGE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF ENGINEERING Craig R. Barrett, Chair Wm. A. Wulf, President Sheila E. Widnall, Vice President W. Dale Compton, Home Secretary George Bugliarello, Foreign Secretary William L. Friend, Treasurer Editor in Chief (interim): George Bugliarello Managing Editor: Carol R. Arenberg Production Assistant: Penelope Gibbs The Bridge (USPS 551-240) is published quarterly by the National Academy of Engineering, 2101 Constitution Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20418. Periodicals postage paid at Washington, DC. Vol. 35, No. 4, Winter 2005 Postmaster: Send address changes to The Bridge, 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W., Washington, DC 20418. Papers are presented in The Bridge on the basis of general interest and time- liness. They reflect the views of the authors and not necessarily the position of the National Academy of Engineering. The Bridge is printed on recycled paper. © 2005 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Erratum In the table on p. 8 in the September issue, the names of the cities for Microsoft and Oracle should have been Beijing, Bangalore, and Hyderabad. A complete copy of The Bridge is available in PDF format at http://www.nae.edu/TheBridge. Some of the articles in this issue are also available as HTML documents and may contain links to related sources of information, multimedia files, or other content. The Volume 35, Number 4 • Winter 2005 BRIDGE LINKING ENGINEERING AND SOCIETY Editor’s Note 3 Cutting-Edge Research in Engineering Pablo G. Debenedetti Features 5 Large-Scale Activity-Recognition Systems Matthai Philipose An activity-recognition system could improve the lives of the elderly and infirm. 11 Science and Engineering Research That Values the Planet Arne Jacobson and Daniel M. Kammen Ecological stewardship will be the guiding scientific principle for new avenues of inquiry. 18 The Promise of Synthetic Biology Jay Keasling Synthetic biologists may soon design and build engineered biological systems. 22 Agent-Based Modeling as a Decision-Making Tool Zoltán Toroczkai and Stephen Eubank Control over agent-based systems can be achieved via modeling tools. 28 Fuel Cells: Current Status and Future Challenges Stuart B. Adler Fuel cells of the future will be based on solid electrolytes. 33 Organic Semiconductors for Low-Cost Solar Cells Chiatzun Goh and Michael D. McGehee The world will need access to 30TW of power without releasing carbon into the atmosphere. NAE News and Notes 40 NAE Newsmakers 40 2005 Annual Meeting 42 Chairman’s Remarks 44 President’s Address 48 2005 NAE Founders Award Acceptance Remarks 50 2005 Bueche Award Acceptance Remarks (continued on next page) The BRIDGE 52 Gordon Prize Lecture 56 Christine Mirzayan Science and Technology Policy Graduate Fellows 57 ExxonMobil Scholar-in-Residence 57 CASEE Scholar-in-Residence 58 U.S. Frontiers of Engineering Holds 2005 Meeting at GE Global Research Center 60 NAE Hosts Japan-America Frontiers of Engineering Symposium 61 Leading Philanthropists Inducted into Einstein Society 62 Calendar of Meetings and Events 63 In Memoriam 64 Publications of Interest The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self- The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the author- to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility ity of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional char- has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on ter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. National Academy of Sciences. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, The National Research Council was organized by the National under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its adminis- science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering tration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal gov- accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the ernment. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engi- Council has become the principal operating agency of both the neering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages edu- National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engi- cation and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of neering in providing services to the government, the public, and the engineers. Dr. Wm. A. Wulf is president of the National Academy scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered of Engineering. jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chair and vice chair, respec- tively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org WINTER 2005 3 Editor’s Note Cutting-Edge Research Garrick Louis and Amy Smith organized the session in Engineering on engineering for developing communities, which The U.S. Frontiers of Engi- opened with a presentation by Kurt Kornbluth. He neering (FOE) Symposium, described the DISASCARE Wheelchair Center in a yearly event sponsored by Zambia, a project that makes use of locally available NAE, brings together some resources to address technological needs. Daniele Lan- 100 outstanding young engi- tagne highlighted engineering inputs to the Centers for neers (ages 30 to 45) from Disease Control and Prevention Safe Water System academia, industry, and gov- (SWS) Program. This initiative provides safe drinking ernment laboratories for water to people with no access to infrastructure-treated Pablo G. Debenedetti is the Class three days of sharing ideas water through point-of-use water chlorination, water of 1950 Professor of Engineering and learning about cutting- storage in safe containers, and education to improve and Applied Science at Princeton edge research on a broad hygiene and water practices. Julie Beth Zimmerman University and an NAE member. range of engineering topics. explained how engineers could use the principles of The competitively selected green engineering as a design protocol for promoting emerging engineering leaders who attend FOE symposia sustainability. She argued that a design framework that represent a wide spectrum of backgrounds, interests, and incorporates sustainability factors as performance crite- talents, and the event offers them a unique opportunity ria could advance the goals of prosperity and a health- to learn about the latest research in engineering areas ier environment. Daniel Kammen, who gave the last other than their own. Six papers based on this year’s presentation in the session, focused on sustainability presentations are included in this issue of The Bridge. science. In his paper (p. 11), he argues for the devel- The eleventh FOE Symposium, held on Septem- opment of a science and engineering research agenda in ber 22–24, 2005, at the General Electric Global which the preservation of natural and social systems Research Center in Niskayuna, New York, encom- plays a central role. passed four themes: ID and verification technologies, Luis Amaral and Kelvin Lee organized the session on engineering for developing communities, engineering the engineering of complex systems. In a brief opening complex systems, and energy resources for the future. talk, Luis Amaral identified the distinguishing character- The session on ID and verification technologies was istic of complex systems as the emergence of behavior chaired by Visvanathan Ramesh. The first speaker, not foreseeable by the system designer. In Alessandro Peter Belhumeur, addressed the challenge of face recog- Vespignani’s presentation, he showed how the computa- nition as a computational pattern-recognition or tional study of complex networks, such as the World Wide machine-learning problem. He described the chal- Web, can provide valuable insights into infrastructure lenges that lie ahead, such as handling voluntary design, epidemiology, and social science. Jay Keasling, changes in facial expression and natural outdoor whose paper is printed in this issue (p. 18), described syn- lighting. Jonathon Phillips focused on the design of thetic biology, that