LEADOFF In dieser Ausgabe Liebe Mitglieder, 1 Will a NATO Was haben die Anschläge von Pa- ris und die Flüchtlingskrise ge- “Cool War” with meinsam? Sie verändern die Welt, Russia Blow Hot? pmpm g g wie wir sie bisher kennen. Heraus- forderungen der Äußeren Sicher- Peter A. Wilson heit greifen uns in unserem In- nersten an – eine terroristische 7 The ISIS Security Mörderbande rüttelt ebenso wie gepeinigte, flüchtende Menschen Challenge to an den tragenden Säulen unseres China’s “One Belt, bisherigen Selbstverständnisse wie auch an unseren Grundwer- One Road” & SCO ten. Wie werden wir persönlich Dr. Christina Lin und unsere Gesellschaften insge- samt mit dem Veränderungsdruck 12 Bericht der Kom- zurechtkommen, wie unsere politi- schen Eliten mit den herausfor- mission: dernden Aufgabenstellungen? Können wir auch künftig noch Nu- „Untersuchung des ancen ausdifferenzieren oder wird Einsatzes des G36- die Zukunft grobkörnig und schwarz-weiß? Siegt rechtsextrem Sturmgewehrs in gegen die politische Mitte? Bleibt Gefechtssituatio- Europa eine Union? Mit welchem Auftrag schicken wir eigentlich un- nen“ sere Soldaten in die Welt und ge- Winfried Nachtwei, MdB a.D. ben wir Ihnen dafür den erforderli- chen materiellen ideellen und ma- teriellen Rückhalt? Wird sich auch 15 The Land that die Zivilgesellschaft bei den an- Never Sleeps stehenden internationalen Stabili- Nada S. Malki sierungsaufgaben wirkungsvoll einbringen? Womit müssen wir im Neuen Jahr rechnen? Was kön- nen wir tun? THEMEN Das Weihnachtsfest 2015 wird si- cherlich nachdenklicher als in Will a NATO “Cool früheren Jahren. Der Vorstand der War” with Russia Journal der pmg wünscht Ihnen und Ihren Familien ein friedliches, frohes Blow Hot? Politisch- Weihnachtsfest und ein gutes neues Jahr. Overview Militärischen The Cool War1 between NATO Gesellschaft Ralph Thiele, Vorstandsvorsitzender and Russia is going through a dy- namic phase. There appears to be a pause in the Ukraine conflict IMPRESSUM with Moscow’s decision not to Denkwürdigkeiten support any further military expan- Journal der sion of the rebel rump regimes in Nr. 99 Politisch-Militärischen the Donbas region. Furthermore, Gesellschaft e.V. Herausgeber 1 Unlike the more binary conflict between the Dezember Der Vorstand der pmg Soviet Empire and the Atlantic Alliance, the Cold War, Alliance relations with Russia are Redaktion best described as “Cool War” a mixture of 2015 Ralph Thiele (V.i.S.d.P.) competition, containment, and cooperation. It is noteworthy that during the recent peak of the Tel.: +49 (221) 8875920 Ukraine crisis the Putin regime did not attempt E-Mail: [email protected] to sabotage P5+1 negotiation with the IRI to af- Webseite: www.pmg-ev.com fect an agreement to greatly curb the Iranian Herausgegeben vom Vorstand nuclear program. For a description of the pos- der Politisch-Militärischen Gesell- sible emergence of a “Cool War” between the schaft e.V. (pmg) in Berlin United States and China see Paul K. Davis and pmpm g g Peter A. Wilson, Looming Discontinuities in Us Military Strategy and Defense Planning – Col- ISSN 1436-3070 liding RMA’s Necessitate a New Strategy, RAND, OP326, March 2011. Dezember 2015 • pmg Denkwürdigkeiten Nr. 99 • Seite 2 there has been the dramatic mili- financial sanctions will end this whether the United States and its tary intervention by Moscow in the early winter. Noteworthy has been NATO allies are prepared to come Syria Civil War. These geo- the lack of any military action tak- to a strategic modus vivendi. Dur- strategic maneuvers may be part of en by the Ukraine rebel forces ing this summer’s multi-hour me- an elaborate effort by the Putin re- with Russian direct support to dia telethon, Putin attempted to gime to gain meaningful sanction seize a land bridge along the Sea put the best face on Russia’s eco- relief from the Atlantic Alliance. On of Azov to Crimea during this late nomic prospects, although the cur- the other hand, these efforts may summer. Simultaneously Putin rent sanction regime imposed by fail, and the Putin regime may con- has launched a military expedi- the EU and the United States has clude that it has to “double down” tionary operation to shore up the severely disrupted the Russian and renew its covert and overt mili- Assad regime in Syria. His motiva- economy.5 Adding to Moscow’s tary campaign to carve out of tion for this strategic maneuver misery is the loss of income from Ukraine an economically and geo- remains open to speculation.3 He a price collapse of oil and natural graphically viable “New Russia”. may believe that by playing a ma- gas prompted by last year’s deci- This heating up of the Ukraine cri- jor role as a Syrian civil war sion by Saudi Arabia to conduct sis will likely prompt a robust finan- peacemaker he might get some an oil price and market share war cial and military response by the credit from the European Union for with North America’s burgeoning Atlantic Alliance. That response stabilizing the current torrent of unconventional oil and gas indus- may be perceived by Moscow as refugees flowing from the Syrian tries.6 Already the Russian gov- so threatening as to prompt the war zone. Further, this ploy may ernment is planning to make major Putin regime to widen the conflict be part of a larger geo-strategic cut backs in domestic social and with the Atlantic Alliance by launch- game to radically reduce the tem- non-military investment programs ing a covert and possibly overt perature of the tensions with the to protect Moscow’s very ambi- campaign to destabilize Estonia Atlantic Alliance over the Ukraine tious defense reform and modern- and Latvia with the intent of col- crisis in the hopes of gaining sub- ization program.7 Finally, the cost lapsing the cohesion of NATO. stantial sanction relief by this win- This destabilization campaign ter. On the other hand, this military 5 President Putin took a much more downbeat might well include the “use” of the “move of greatness” may be driv- view of the economic threats from the West Russian nuclear arsenal as part of en by the desire to show the Unit- during his late fall 2014 speech to the Russian a “grab-and-threaten-to-smash” ed States that Russia is a power Federal Assembly. He called for a national mo- bilization and willingness of the Russian popu- campaign. Below is an exploration to be taken seriously in the Middle lation make sacrifices in support of Moscow’s as to how NATO could enhance its East, irrespective of the evolution strategy of confronting the Atlantic Alliance. 4 Article V extended deterrent com- of the Ukraine crisis. See “Russia: Putin’s Annual Speech Marks mitment to East Europe in the face Dramatic Shift”, STATFOR Global Intelli- gence, December 4, 2015 of the prospect in the near-future of Overall, it appears that Putin has 6 There appears to be a consensus amongst a very severe political military crisis decided to lower the temperature many global energy analysts that oil prices will prompted by a new major act of of the Ukraine crisis and find out be low (below $60 a barrel) for a long period of aggression by Moscow. time (end of the decade). This driven by the twin impact a reduction in demand with Chi- 3 Russia began air strikes in support of the As- na’s economy facing a secular slowdown and Pause in the Ukraine Crisis sad regime on the 30th of September 2015. Ear- increased energy efficiencies in the “West” and Although the current crisis be- ly indications suggest that those air strikes are the prospect that North American unconven- against Syrian rebel forces not allied with ISIS tional oil and gas business will respond to any tween Russia and Ukraine ap- aka Daesh. See “Syria crisis: Russian airstrikes future rise in oil and gas prices with a rapid in- pears to be in a tentative remis- against Assad enemies”, BBC News, September crease in production thereby acting a global sion, there is the very real pro- 30, 2015 swing producer and price setter, the former role 4 spect that the Atlantic Alliance will For a discussion of the possible linkage be- of Saudi Arabia. See Terry Engelder, “Is US oil tween the Ukraine crisis and Putin decision to boom already turning to bust? OPEC can only face a far more serious Europe- up the military ante in Syria see Geoff Dyer dream”, The CONVERSATION, May 8, 2015, wide military crisis with Russia and Kathrin Hille, “The battle for Syria”, Fi- Annual Energy Outlook 2015 with projections that entails the risk of nuclear nancial Times, September 25, 2015 and James to 2040, U.S. Energy Information Administra- war.2 That prospect will emerge if J. Coyle, “Russia Looking for an Exit?”, tion, DOE/EIA-0383 (2015), and Robert Berke, RealClearDefense, September 24, 2015. Presi- “Iran Deal May Redefine the Middle East”, the Putin regime decides to shat- dent Obama met with President Putin during OILPRICE, September 20, 2015 for an analysis ter the current ceasefire agree- the annual General Assembly meeting at the of the cascading geostrategic and geo-economic ment with Ukraine, the Minsk II UN this September 28th. It is quite obvious effects of the July 14, 2015 nuclear agreement Accord sometime next spring. there is a strong difference of opinion between with Iran and the P5+1. Washington and Moscow as to whether Assad 7 There is increasing evidence that the Russian Currently, Moscow appears to be is a solution or part of the problem of ending defense sector may be suffering from both playing a waiting game with much the Syria civil war. See “Analytic Guidance: smaller future budgets and the disruption of the more benign public rhetoric aimed What the U.S.-Russia Talks on Syria Portend”, supply of important defense material from at a politically fragile Europe in the STRATFOR, September 26, 2015.