POLLING BRIEF: FOURTEEN MONTHS INTO THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC: What we miss the most (and how policymakers can help). FUNDED BY: CHERCARES PANDEMIC RESOURCE AND RESPONSE FUND PANDEMIC RESOURCE AND RESPONSE INITIATIVE MAY 2021 RECOMMENDED CITATION “Fourteen Months into the COVID-19 Pandemic: What We Miss the Most (And how policymakers can help).” Redlener, I., Hansen, S., Esposito, L., Sury, J.J. Pandemic Resource and Response Initiative, National Center for Disaster Preparedness at Columbia University, Earth Institute. Polling Brief 2021. May 17, 2021. https://doi.org/10.7916/d8-v20c-8h80 REPORT AUTHORS Irwin Redlener, MD Founding Director, National Center for Disaster Preparedness, Director, Pandemic Resource and Response Initiative, Senior Research Scholar, Earth Institute, Columbia University Sean Hansen, MPA Project Coordinator, National Center for Disaster Preparedness, Earth Institute, Columbia University Lauren D. Esposito, MS Senior Project Manager, National Center for Disaster Preparedness, Earth Institute, Columbia University Jonathan Sury, MPH, CPH Project Director, National Center for Disaster Preparedness, Earth Institute, Columbia University ______________ REPORT INQUIRIES: Please contact Sean Hansen at [email protected] or (212) 853-6237 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS: Polling research conducted by The Marist Poll, Marist College FUNDED BY: CherCares Pandemic Resource and Response Fund 475 Riverside Drive, Suite 401 New York, NY 10115-0095 [email protected] https://ncdp.columbia.edu TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................1 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................2 METHODOLOGY ........................................................................................................................3 SURVEY CONTEXT AND FINDINGS ........................................................................................4 KEY TAKEAWAYS ........................................................................................................................5 SOCIAL MEDIA OUTREACH .....................................................................................................9 SURVEY IMPLICATIONS .........................................................................................................10 CONCLUSION ..........................................................................................................................12 DEMOGRAPHICS .....................................................................................................................13 DATA TABLES ...........................................................................................................................16 475 Riverside Drive, Suite 401 Note: The content of this document, including all data and hyperlinks are current up to May 2021. Hyperlinks will not be maintained New York, NY 10115-0095 after the publication date but are available in full length for the reader’s reference. [email protected] https://ncdp.columbia.edu POLLING BRIEF: WHAT WE MISS THE MOST NATIONAL CENTER FOR DISASTER PREPAREDNESS, EARTH INSTITUTE, COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY EXECUTIVE SUMMARY As the U.S. continues to emerge from the deadliest pandemic in over one hundred years, vaccination rates among Americans have steadily risen, and public health guidelines that have been in place for over a year are increasingly relaxed. In short, Americans are readjusting to a “new normal.” But what this “new normal” looks like for many Americans remains unclear. To better understand what Americans are most looking forward to, the National Center for Disaster Preparedness (NCDP) at Columbia University’s Earth Institute partnered with the Marist Institute for Public Opinion to survey Americans and better understand what they are most looking forward to doing – or what getting back to ‘normal’ means to them. A nationally representative Omnibus survey was conducted between April 7th – 13th, 2021 to 1,266 people across the U.S. via mobile phones and landlines. Each respondent was asked what they missed the most since the pandemic began, before being read a list of randomized options. Overall, the three consistent areas in which the general public seemed most intent on returning to were: 1. Large, in-person social gatherings such as weddings, sporting events, concerts, or theatre 2. The ability to travel freely 3. The option to shed public health protocols such as mask-wearing and social distancing The results demonstrated a clear desire for Americans to get back to the large, in-person gatherings that were first impacted by the pandemic more than fourteen months ago. Nearly a third of those polled – or 31% – longed for these large, social gatherings. The survey also found significant differences emerged in what Americans most looked forward to when grouped by political affiliation. While 17% of Americans – the second-largest majority – indicated that they most looked forward to not needing to follow COVID-19 restrictions such as mask-wearing and social distancing, that choice was selected three times as often by Republicans (27%) as by Democrats (9%). Substantial differences also emerged along age and generational lines, with 17% of younger Americans (between the ages of 18 to 39) indicating that they most missed the ability to travel freely. While 15% of all adults surveyed agreed with the desire to travel freely, only 9% of those over the age of 74 responded the same. Instead, 16% of older Americans responded that they most longed for physical contact, such as hugging or shaking hands. In order to safely achieve these aspirations, the necessary policies to make these desires possible should be a prime consideration for politicians and public health decision-makers. We recommend that in order to safely allow Americans to attend large, in-person social events, travel freely, and to shed public health protocols, policymakers should consider developing and implementing mandatory vaccination checks in tandem with public and private sector entities that draw large crowds. Similarly, it is recommended that widespread vaccination campaigns continue to target at-risk areas and underserved communities, including those that are newly eligible for vaccinations such as children and adolescents. Simultaneously, it is important to recognize as well that as long as there are severe outbreaks in other parts of the world, for instance in South Asia or South America, nowhere on the planet, including the United States, can be confident that we will avoid another major surge with a new, more dangerous mutation of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. NATIONAL CENTER FOR DISASTER PREPAREDNESS, EARTH INSTITUTE, COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY POLLING BRIEF: WHAT WE MISS THE MOST 1 INTRODUCTION As the scope of suffering from SARS-CoV-2 continues to climb higher across the globe, it is clear that we remain in the midst of the deadliest pandemic in over 100 years. More than 32 million Americans have been infected, and at least 583,690 have died from the virus.1 A recent report from the University of Washington suggests that the number of fatalities in the U.S. may actually be much higher than originally reported.2 Another report from Columbia University’s NCDP, from the fall of 2020, demonstrated that the U.S. mortality rate from COVID-19 was unnecessarily high, and that many such deaths were avoidable with greater federal leadership, coordination, and rigourous policy interventions.3 Even today, as cases continue to decline in the United States, there remains an average of nearly 40,000 positive cases and more than 600 deaths each day.4 As the situation in the U.S. has markedly improved in recent months, cautious optimism is recommended. Today, approximately 117 million Americans are fully vaccinated, and nearly half all of Americans – or 46% – have received at least one dose.5 With COVID-19 cases steadily declining over the past month, Americans are preparing to – and in some places have already begun to – return to a degree of normalcy. However, as public health guidelines that have been in place for over a year are relaxed, what this “new normal” looks like for Americans remains unclear. In a post-pandemic world, how do Americans prioritize interpersonal relationships, the pursuit of business, or the freedom of unrestricted movement? Will there be a wholesale return to the office? Are Americans most eager to travel, resume physical contact with one another (e.g., hugging), or attend large in-person gatherings? As we approach the Biden Administration’s goal of a near-normal America by July 4, understanding what pandemic-weary Americans most are looking forward to can help guide policymakers toward adaptive policies to safely get us there. To answer these questions, the National Center for Disaster Preparedness (NCDP) at Columbia University’s Earth Institute partnered with the Marist Institute for Public Opinion to insert a one-question poll into an omnibus survey of Americans. This report aims to shed light onto what Americans are most looking forward to – or what getting back to ‘normal’ means to them. ________ 1 The New York Times Covid Tracker, as of May 13, 2021 2 Institute Health Metrics and Evaluation, Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19 3 130,000 - 210,000 Avoidable COVID-19 Deaths - and Counting in the US, October 21, 2020 4 The New York Times Covid Tracker, accessed May 13, 2021 2 POLLING BRIEF: WHAT WE MISS THE MOST NATIONAL