MALI Food Security Update May 2009 In general, the 2008/09 off‐season is making fair Figure 1. Map of the most likely food security scenario for progress. This time of year is devoted to land April through June 2009 preparation for the 2009/10 growing season for rainfed crops (clearing fields and transporting and spreading manure). Some farming activities are already underway in parts of the Sikasso region in the southern reaches of the country. Both pastures and water availability in pastoral areas have deteriorated, which is normal at this time of year. A look at the condition of natural vegetation as of May 10th shows normal biomass production across the country. This is the low‐water fishing season known for large catches. Catches were reportedly up in early May and are on par with those of the same time last year. For more information about FEWS NET’s Food Insecurity Severity Scale, click on : www.fews.net/FoodInsecurityScale Cereal supplies on markets across the country are Source: FEWS NET more than adequate. As of the middle of May, grain prices were trending downwards. Only the Ségou and Bamako markets reported small price increase. Current price levels are running above the five‐year average for the same time of year but below 2004/05 prices. The nationwide food security outlook is good for the remainder of this year. The projected high levels of food insecurity in the northeastern reaches of the Kidal region are a reflection of the stubborn civil security problems in that area, which could further isolate the area and curtail normal activities. Seasonal calendar and timeline of critical events Source: FEWS NET FEWS NET Washington FEWS NET Mali 1717 H St NW FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The authors’ views expressed in this Tel: 223 20 29 94 60 publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency Washington DC 20006 [email protected] for International Development or the United States Government. [email protected] www.fews.net MALI Food Security Update May 2009 Overview of the current food situation Right now, pastoralist households are at the peak of their hunger season, and conditions are not expected to improve until the rainy season finally settles in. Degraded pasturelands and the deterioration in animal watering conditions are forcing livestock herds to travel long distances. Milk production is at its lowest level during this period. This time of year is devoted to preparing the land (clearing fields and transporting and spreading manure) for the 2009/10 growing season for rainfed crops with the rains getting underway or expected to begin at any time. Some farming activities have already started up in parts of the Sikasso region in the southern reaches of the country. Output from this winter growing season will be the mainstay of the household diet for 2009/10. Off‐season and flood‐recession production are concluding normally in agricultural areas across the country. In general, crop growth and development is going well and fields are well‐tended. June harvests of these crops should help strengthen the food security of producer households. This is the time of year when migrant workers return home to work the land. Every year, after the harvest is brought in, rural workers leave the countryside for the city and, in some cases, for neighboring countries (Senegal, Cote d’Ivoire, etc.) to look for seasonal work as a source of cash income. Upon their return, this income is used to meet household needs such as ceremonies, land preparation, etc. Moreover, despite the high price of grain, households in all parts of the country still have access to regularly‐supplied cereal market. Coarse grain prices are still running above the five‐year average but below record nominal 2004/05 prices. In general, prices are falling. Looking ahead, there is no reason to expect any grain shortages this year. The highly food‐insecure area in orange on the map in Figure 1 lies in the northeastern reaches of the Kidal region and, more specifically, in the municipality of Tinzawatène where, despite the lull in violence in the past few months, repeated problems with armed Tuareg bandits suggest the need for close monitoring. Threats to civil security in this area could block supply routes and even force local residents to relocate to more secure areas, thereby jeopardizing their access to food and normal coping strategies. The Multidisciplinary Working Group for Agrometeorological Assistance (GTPA) has scheduled its monitoring activities for the 2009/10 agropastoral season, which include: seventeen meetings at ten‐day intervals over the period from May 13th through October 23rd, field missions to all parts of the country, and a wrap‐up session in November. As has been the case in the past, FEWS NET will be actively involved in monitoring the progress of the growing season in conjunction with the country’s other food security partners. Progress of the 2008/09 off‐season and start‐up of the 2009/10 growing season for rainfed crops Ongoing monitoring programs in the Office du Niger (ON) area in Ségou are tracking the progress of current off‐season agricultural activities (application of herbicides and fertilizer and the tending of seedlings) for the production of rice and Nerica rice seeds. The transplanting is practically completed and crop maintenance activities (application of fertilizer, weeding, irrigation) are winding down. Vegetable harvests crops and corresponding marketing activities are still in progress. As of May 10th of this year, a total of 12,506 hectares were planted in rice crops compared with last year’s figure of 7,700 ha as of the same date, which is a 62 percent jump. This expansion in the size of the area planted in rice is the result of a new rice‐farming “craze” in the wake of last year’s launch of the government’s so‐called Rice Initiative. Moreover, the size of the area planted in vegetables this year is 5,702 hectares, up 36 percent from last year’s figure of 4,187 ha as of the same date. In general, this year’s off‐season is making good progress. This time of year is devoted to preparing the land for planting, with the rains getting underway or expected to begin at any time and the start‐up of farming activities. Farmers in major farming areas around the country are clearing fields and transporting and spreading manure for the 2009/10 growing season. Households in these areas, particularly in the southern part of the country, rely on this winter growing season to meet most of their food needs. Output from this growing season will be the mainstay of the household diet until the next harvest of rainfed crops. These households are generally surplus grain producers (millet, sorghum, corn), but also include marginally self‐sufficient and some structurally deficit households. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2 MALI Food Security Update May 2009 Surplus‐producing farmers build carry‐over reserves, while marginally self‐sufficient and deficit producers rely on other activities (livestock production, out‐migration, trade, etc.) and local markets to meet their food needs. In fact, the local household economy in the far south of the country is generally highly dependent on agriculture. Producer households in the southern part of the country also grow cotton as a cash crop, which had been bringing in substantial amounts of income. However, low farm‐gate prices for cotton over the last few years have dampened interest in growing cotton crops. There are also reports of ongoing dry‐plowing activities in rice‐growing areas of Mopti and the establishment of seedbeds in certain irrigated areas in Gao. Figure 2. Cumulative rainfall totals for the first Favorable trends in meteorological conditions in the first ten days dekad of May 2009 of May in the Sikasso region in the southern part of the country brought rain to this area, with some planting activities getting underway. There was also measurable rainfall in the Sahelian belt in the central and northern reaches of the country (Figure 2), though farming activities in these areas will not get underway until later on. The Multidisciplinary Working Group for Agrometeorological Assistance (GTPA) is advising farmers to plant corn, groundnut, and cowpea crops with maturation periods of at least 110 days between May 11th and May 20th, as soon as cumulative rainfall totals reach or exceed 10 mm, particularly in southern areas of the country such as Kéniéba, Kita, Kangaba, Bancoumana, Dangassa, Dialakoroba, Kéniéroba, Naréna, Sikasso, Bougouni, Koutiala, Misséni, and Kolondièba. It is also advising planting cotton as soon as rainfall totals reach or exceed 30 mm in the Sikasso, Bougouni, Koutiala, Misséni, Kolondièba, Kita, Fana, and Dioïla areas. Source: NASA-USGS On the whole, plant health conditions are relatively stable. Conditions in pastoral areas Rainfall amounts as of May 10th (Figure 2) are negligible as far as pasture production is concerned. May is still the height of the hunger season for pastoralists. This crucial phase will last until the growth of new plant cover, once the rainy season finally settles in, by June/July. Rainy‐season pasturelands far from year‐round bodies of water are degraded, particularly in the northern Timbuktu, Gao, and Kidal regions and the northern reaches of the Kayes and Koulikoro regions, where brush fires are further damaging any existing pasture resources. In general, floodplain pastures (in the vicinity of rivers and lakes) are in good to fair condition, particularly in the Mopti region and lake areas of Timbuktu. On the whole, animal watering conditions range from good to fair. As usual, pastoralists in certain parts of the Sahelian and Saharan regions of the country are having a hard time making it through the hot season with the drying up of certain natural watering holes.