How 20,000 officers can transform UK policing Policing 4.0 Contents Foreword 01 Executive summary 02 About this report 06 A new and volatile context 07 A view of the future 17 Police readiness 20 Policing 4.0 decision framework 24 Priorities for 21st century policing 25 New capabilities for the future 27 A. Building a workforce for the future 34 B. Digital transformations 37 C. Building structure and collaborations 40 that support effectiveness Conclusion 42 Contacts 42 Endnotes 43 How 20,000 officers can transform UK policing | Policing 4.0 Foreword Policing 4.0: How 20,000 officers can transform UK policing is the second of Deloitte’s annual publications on the future of UK policing. Our first report, published in September 2018, outlined the radical shifts in society, technology and patterns of crime that the police must prepare for now. We shared examples of effective UK police practice and provided some tools to help leaders make the tough choices required to ensure that policing is ready for the future. This year, our focus is a little different. The period of austerity in policing provoked over coming months and years. The long-term future we expect for policing greater efficiency and innovation. Now, is broadly unchanged but the immediate there are myriad opportunities to build context for UK policing is radically different on progress. Twenty thousand officers from 12 months ago. Crime is now an even deployed even in traditional ways will clearer priority for the government and has improve public confidence and assist in been promised a major injection of funding. tackling serious violence. Augmenting the reach of these 20,000 with new forms of New investment can be a once in a online visibility and enhanced technology, generation opportunity for policing. richer data and digital investigation and And, in this context, we are asking – and crime prevention capabilities would have helping to answer – policing’s central a transformational impact on public safety question for the coming period. How can and confidence. This report highlights Richard Hobbs our police services take advantage of the some of the emerging approaches in Partner and UK Policing Lead new investment and build a police service policing and other sectors that can that serves the public more effectively help, provides ideas for system reform, both today and in the future? We draw our and shares tools to help leaders make answers from a new Deloitte survey of the judgements on the right choices for their public, workshops with police officers and organisations and teams. staff, interviews and surveys with policing leaders, online engagement with the Overall, we are optimistic about the police workforce and Deloitte’s experience future of UK policing. Funding constraints working across policing in the UK and in England, Wales and Northern Ireland internationally. have left the service under considerable strain but leaders there and in Scotland have developed new ways of working and This report highlights some a more rigorous approach to managing of the emerging approaches scarce resources. With additional funding, we believe leaders can build on these in policing and other sectors successes. And we hope they can draw that can help, provides on the information and ideas in this publication as they develop UK policing Tom Gash ideas for system reform, Deloitte Strategic Adviser and shares tools to help leaders make judgements on the right choices for their organisations and teams. 01 How 20,000 officers can transform UK policing | Policing 4.0 Executive summary “We have digital dogs now”, a police sergeant told us.1 “One just found a phone buried in the garden of a serious sex offender.” Digital dogs are not a new piece of The UK government has now responded These uncertainties reflect the fact that technological kit for policing. They are decisively, however. After small funding policing has reached a new inflection dogs that have been specially trained to injections targeted at reducing serious point. The policy and fiscal framework locate hidden electronic devices – and are violence in early 2019, the Chancellor’s in England and Wales that was ushered just one of the ways in which UK policing September ‘spending round’ promised an in by the then home secretary, is evolving to meet the challenges of our additional £750m investment in English Theresa May, in 2010 and which held technological age. As this report shows, and Welsh policing in 2020.6 Further firm until she stepped down as prime policing has developed a panoply of new increases have been promised in future minister in 2019 is now over. Decisions approaches to preventing and detecting years as the government aims to deliver by politicians and police leaders over crime, deploying technology that on the ambitious target to recruit 20,000 the coming months in England and increases productivity and supporting its more officers over the next three years as Wales – and parallel decisions in Scotland workforce. well as invest in the wider justice system. and Northern Ireland – will shape a new settlement and determine the Progress has been made against a Our work finds that this injection of effectiveness of UK policing for years challenging backdrop. Between 2009 funding has made police leaders to come. and 2019, policing budgets in England optimistic. Funding may now recover to and Wales fell by around 16 per cent in 2009 levels by 2022 and leaders are There is now a vital opportunity to real terms at the same time as demands confident that they have enhanced the address historic challenges and prepare from the public increased in several efficiency of their organisations during the for the future. The trends of accelerating areas.2 Northern Ireland’s budgets period of austerity. Yet there is some technological and societal change fell significantly. Scottish policing may caution too. The proposed funding highlighted in this report have already largely have escaped cuts but has increase would still mean that officer created an environment that is very still experienced the challenges of numbers in England and Wales remain different to ten years ago (see Figure 1) – major structural change. UK policing 9 per cent lower in per capita terms than and there are gaps emerging in policing’s performance stood up surprisingly well for ten years ago, given population growth.7 ability to cope with change. None of the many years but the pressures eventually There also remains (at the time of writing) leaders we surveyed felt policing was yet told.3 After a spike in serious violence since some uncertainty regarding future policy well prepared for tackling technology- 2015, crime is now the third highest public decisions nationally, Brexit impacts, and enabled crime (see page 20). There were concern in England and Wales after Brexit shift in local political leadership. We expect also major concerns about policing’s and healthcare.4 Police visibility in England as many as half of police and crime capacity to use technology effectively and Wales has fallen.5 And chief officers commissioners (PCCs) to be replaced after (see page 21). And there were concerns we spoke to reported that they had to the May 2020 elections, as around a third about policing’s capacity to deliver a make increasingly unpalatable decisions of PCCs are not seeking re-election. co-ordinated national, regional and local on which crimes could be given a full response to emerging threats (see investigative response. page 21). If these gaps are addressed, and policing avoids the temptation simply to rebuild There is now a vital opportunity to address historic the policing model of ten years ago, the challenges and prepare for the future. prize is vast. We propose nine measures that could collectively help ensure that the addition of 20,000 officers transforms policing effectiveness today and in future. 02 How 20,000 officers can transform UK policing | Policing 4.0 Recommendations for UK government 2. If the above is not possible due 4. Provide increased stability and the national policing boardi to changes in priorities or fiscal of investment and stronger We take it as a given that even with position, adjust timescales for co-ordination around national increased resources, policing must be increasing officer numbers. technology-enabled transformation as clear as possible about its mission, Underinvesting in the right support and specialist capability aspirations and priorities and national staff, technical specialists and programmes. Funding for critical investments must be guided by a clear technology will result in policing being programmes is still not provided on view of what the public value and need. less productive and could drive some a multi-year basis, and this is slowing To ensure effective delivery on the forces to reallocate frontline officers down the delivery of benefits to mission, however, the government and into less operational roles. officers and staff. The multiplicity the national policing board should: of governance arrangements for 3. Build new crime reduction national programmes is also creating 1. Continue to invest beyond capabilities that logically sit duplication of effort and increased the levels required to hire the above the level of individual workload for police forces. It seems additional 20,000 officers in forces. We believe there is a gap in inevitable that at some point an England and Wales and rebuild national capabilities for preventing organisation will need to be assigned service strength in Northern Ireland. high volume, less serious crimes, to house these ongoing long-term Investment in new officers will only particularly online crime (notably programmes and the capabilities support productivity when there is an fraud) and traditional acquisitive crime. needed to support them. appropriate balancing investment in: Local police forces lack many of the levers necessary for effective crime 5.