Adaptive management and the Baffinland Phase 2 Proposal A Review of Concerns and Considerations IN RELATION TO THE Adaptive Management System Proposed for Baffinland Phase 2 Development of the Mary River Iron Ore Mine SUBMISSION TO THE NUNAVUT IMPACT REVIEW BOARD January 17, 2021 Hamlet of Pond Inlet Joshua Arreak Mayor ____________________________________________ Prepared by Dr. Frank Tester, B.Sc., (Hon.), D.Phil., M.E.Des., M.S.W., Technical Advisor Rowan Harris, B.Sc., Research Assistant with contributions from Joshua Arreak, Mayor, & Tim Soucie, former Hamlet Councillor TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction ………………………………………………………………………………………. 1 What is Adaptive Management …………………………………………………………. 4 1. Defined Management Objectives ……………………………………….. 5 2. Measureable Indicators ………………………………………………………. 5 3. Predictive Modelling of Indicators ………………………………………. 5 4. What to do? ……………………………………………………………………….. 6 5. What is Important ………………………………………………………………. 8 Lessons Learned ………………………………………………………………………………… 8 1. Inuit must have the power to make management decisions. …. 8 2. Differences between the way Qallunaat and Inuit communicate can create problems for adaptive management. …………………. 12 3. Being able to actually change things is important. ………………. 13 4. Biological and management time are not always the same. ..... 14 5. Adaptive management can create more cause for conflict. …… 16 6. Adaptive management requires a lot of people’s time and energy, enough resources (money included), and a common vision to make it work. ………………………………………………………… 16 Conclusion …………………………………………………………………………………………. 17 Introduction1 At issue are the environmental, cultural and social effects of mining and shipping at Mary River, Milne Inlet, and Eclipse Sound, Baffin Island. Adaptive management is being proposed as a means for managing potential impacts. It is an approach being proposed and developed through the Inuit Certainty Agreement (ICA) signed by the Qikiqtani Inuit Association (QIA) and Baffinland. It is subsequently referenced and anticipated in agreements reached by parties to the hearing process, notable among them, Fisheries and Oceans Canada.2 This submission to the NIRB by the Hamlet of Pond Inlet addresses what adaptive management is, how it works, and what some of the problems with implementing it might be. This is important background information given that adaptive management is being promoted by both Baffinland and QIA as a method for dealing with project effects if Phase 2 is recommended by NIRB and approved by the federal government. We submit this information and comments in hope that NIRB will find it useful in evaluating the many instances where adaptive management is referenced as a way of dealing with potential effects to the marine, terrestrial and socio- economic environments associated with Baffinland’s Phase 2 Proposal. In addition to dealing with what adaptive management is and how it works, we raise concerns about its application to the Phase 2 Project. It is important to understand what adaptive management is, how it works and what some of the problems might be for communities affected by the Baffinland Phase 2 Proposal. What is somewhat unusual about the proposed use of adaptive management in regard to the Baffinland Phase 2 Project is the size, complexity and interconnected effects that are associated with any large development project. The literature suggests that adaptive management is more commonly and successfully used for the management of smaller and more easily defined components of a larger ecosystem, for example by Indigenous people and environmental scientists who are committed to preserving a 1 This document is based on a review of 52 articles about adaptive management published internationally, and two books about adaptive management. Included were 14 articles and chapters that deal with traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) and/or IQ and their relation to adaptive management. The report is co-authored by Frank Tester, technical advisor to the Hamlet of Pond Inlet. He has a degree in Environmental Design – design and environmental sciences – and is a former Professor of Environmental Studies, York University, a graduate programme where he taught social and environmental impact assessment and adaptive management practice. Rowan Harris is a biology graduate, University of British Columbia. 2 As evidenced by the content, cautions and matters both resolved and outstanding in FISHERIES AND OCEANS CANADA, Updated Written Submission, Baffinland Iron Mines Corporation, Mary River “Phase 2 Development” Project Proposal, Submitted to: Nunavut Impact Review Board, January 15, 2020, DFO File No.: 07-HCAA-CA7- 00050 , NIRB File No.: 08MN053. 1 | P a g e wetland or a species affected by a known threat, etc. Applying adaptive management to elements where there are multiple, and perhaps unknown or unrecognized considerations impinging on what is happening, is challenging. The number of elements and interacting elements potentially impacted by an Arctic mining operation like Mary River makes adaptive management in this situation, demanding, with observations and conclusions that may be highly contentious. This means that the mechanism for making decisions in response to observed and documented effects is of critical importance; something complicated by competing goals and objectives and the interests of the parties involved in decision making. As noted below, this is of primary concern. Adaptive Management is proposed as a way of dealing with the physical environment, social, cultural, and economic impacts of expanding production at the Mary River Iron Ore Mine. What is presented here is based on a thorough review of the contemporary international literature dealing with adaptive management. What is Adaptive Management? Adaptive management is a science-based approach to change. There are very few examples in the literature of situations where the science used in adaptive management has been applied in concert with traditional knowledge or, in this case, IQ. Adaptive management focuses on the effects of what changing circumstances and conditions are doing to people and environments. It can involve both monitoring of processes being affected by some introduced or natural change, and it can be used experimentally to see what effect a particular change or a combination of changes have on the environmental resource or component in question. Adaptive management can focus on a particular element – a plant or a species – or a complex ecosystem. There are dimensions of adaptive management that must be present in order for a management system to be called “adaptive”. The problem with adaptive management, since its inception by University of British Columbia professor, Crawford Stanley ‘Buzz’ Holling, in the early 1970s, is that, not unlike the term ‘sustainable development’, it has been applied to activities and used to describe actions that do not constitute adaptive management. The term has a certain social and political currency that explains its use - and misuse. The literature on adaptive management makes it clear that there are five important and essential components to an adaptive management system that must be present and addressed for adaptive management to work.. 2 | P a g e 1. Defined Management Objectives There must be a clear understanding about what is to be managed and monitored (environmental, social, physical, economic), and what sort of environmental changes are acceptable. This must be established before a project begins, and are called thresholds; levels or degrees of change where intervention is mandated in order to prevent environmental damage, or further environmental damage. Where environmental damage is detected, changes are made to repair or restore the element or component in question. In this case, IQ is important to identifying priorities and to determining thresholds. 2. Measurable Indicators Indicators must be things that can be observed and/or measured. Then people responsible for making decisions can learn and use the results to manage environmental, cultural, social and economic concerns. What these indicators are must also be determined ahead of time. Anyone evaluating a plan for adaptive management must be assured that there are appropriate indicators, that these can be measured or observed, and that the indicator(s) will, in fact, measure what is of concern. An example would be the impact of stress and exertion on a species like narwhal over a period of time (a season). Indices or measurements of body fat, taken at the start of a season and again at the end of a season, could be an indicator of the impact of shipping on the vitality of narwhal exposed to shipping or other disturbances in their natural environment. As an example of the complex considerations in identifying indicators, in this case, there would need to be parallel evidence that summer food supplies were not also disrupted or believed to have been affected by other intervening variables. 3. Predictive Modelling of Indicators Western science and computer models are often used to establish a predictive cause and effect relationship among the things that are of concern.3 An example would be the effect of ship noise on narwhal. Collected data can be used to model what might happen if noise increases or if there are changes in frequency and duration. 3 Conroy, M. J., Barker, R. J., Dillingham, P. W., Fletcher, D., Gormley, A. M., & Westbrooke, I. M. (2008). Application of decision theory to conservation management: Recovery of Hector’s dolphin.