Quarterly Outlook, January 2021 BGR Group TABLE OF CONTENTS I. Overview.....................................................3 II. Bipartisan Take..........................................5 III. International.............................................7 IV. Health and Life Sciences .........................8 V. Commerce.................................................9 VI. Financial Services...................................10 VII. State Advocacy and Government Marketing........................11 VIII. Public Relations....................................12 APPENDIX 1: Potential Committee Chairs and Ranking Members in U.S. Senate........13 APPENDIX II: 2021 Congressional Calendar.....................14 CONTACT US 601 13th St. NW Washington, DC 20005 www.bgrdc.com 2 Quarterly Report, JANUARY 2021 BGRDC.com I. Overview THERE WILL BE A 50-50 SENATE KEY DATES Democrats have pulled off a huge upset and flipped both of Georgia’s U.S. Senate seats out of Republican hands. This sets up a rare but not unprecedented 50-50 split in the Senate. When Vice President-elect Kamala Harris is 117th Congress officially sworn in on January 20 and her replacement as senator takes office, she will become the tie-breaking Q1 2021 vote in the Senate. This gives the Democrats a majority. JANUARY 20: HOW WILL IT WORK? United States Presidential The last time the Senate operated under a 50-50 split was Inauguration after the 2000 election. At that time, Democratic Leader Tom Daschle (D-S.D.) and Republican Leader Trent Lott (R-Miss.) formed a power-sharing agreement to guide LATE JANUARY / EARLY FEBRUARY the chamber’s operations. Because Republicans held the presidency, Lott was recognized as de-facto Majority (DATE TBD): Leader. Committees had an equal number of Republicans State of the Union and Democrats. In the event of a tie vote in committees, the Majority or Minority Leader moved to discharge the committee from further consideration and that request FIRST MONDAY OF FEBRUARY, could not be blocked by a filibuster. The Majority Leader WHICH IN 2021 IS FEBRUARY 1: maintained control of the Senate agenda, but both parties determined general consideration. The power-sharing Deadline for FY 2022 budget agreement noted: “Senate Rules do not prohibit the right submission to Congress (note that of the Democratic Leader, or any other Senator, to move the “President’s Budget” has been to proceed to any item.” This agreement was in place until delayed the last two Presidential Sen. Jim Jeffords of Vermont switched parties to align with Democrats giving them a 51-49 majority. It is too early to transition years 2008 and 2016) tell what a power- sharing agreement will look like in the 117th Congress but 2001 could be a guide. APRIL 15: WHO WILL MATTER? Deadline for Congress to agree to a concurrent budget resolution In the current 50-50 Senate, Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) would be de-facto Majority Leader. His control will be tenuous, not just of the Senate but of his own caucus as well. Schumer is up for reelection in 2022 and could face a primary challenge from Rep- resentative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), a leader of the progressive wing of the Democratic Party. Rep. 3 Ocasio-Cortez and her allies want to abolish the able Care Act and potentially addressing climate filibuster to ease passage of progressive priorities. change. Even so, Democrats’ more-controversial Senators Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), Jon Tester (D- policies will be hard to approve. For reconciliation Mont.), and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) have previ- to be successful, Democratic Senators will have ously said they would oppose any push to abolish to vote in lockstep. Democrats will have to do the the filibuster. But reforms are possible. These could same in the House of Representatives where their include expanding the minority’s ability to offer majority is also very thin. Republicans’ ability to amendments and restructuring consideration of block legislation is enhanced by this arithmetic. non-controversial legislation. Any such changes The Democratic majority could also employ the would require all 50 Democratic Senators to vote Congressional Review Act to rescind Trump Ad- together and would require Schumer to employ ministration rules (including qualifying guid- the filibuster-breaking “nuclear option” to approve ance) promulgated prior to June 1, 2020 if they these changes with a simple majority. Schumer will were not submitted to Congress. This would give have to weigh multiple calculations in deciding the Biden administration another tool to reverse how hard he will push for these changes. Trump-era policies. Potential targets will include Even though Democrats will assume nominal con- recent environmental rules, an Securities and Ex- trol of Washington, moderate Republicans will see change Commission rule raising thresholds for their influence grow. The most prominent GOP shareholder proposals so political activists can’t moderates include Senators Susan Collins (R- buy a small stake in a company to extract political Maine), Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) and Mitt Rom- demands, a Comptroller of Currency rule aimed ney (R-Utah). These and other centrist Senators at preventing banks from being pressured to cut such as Democrats Manchin, Sinema, and Delaware off loans to coal companies, an order for Arctic Senator Chris Coons could be pivotal dealmakers. oil drilling and other fossil fuel projects and a They all have strong relationships with President- Department of Labor rule recognizing expanded elect Joe Biden from his time in the Senate. religious defenses to claims of alleged unlawful discrimination in employment. WHAT WILL BE ON THE Democrats will also assume the chairmanships of committees. Committee oversight will shift from AGENDA? the executive branch to corporate America and Democratic control will create an easier path to investigations into the conduct of the Trump Ad- confirmation for President-elect Biden’s Cabinet ministration. Look for Democrats to concentrate nominees, including judges, and for more robust on companies that benefited from CARES fund- COVID-19 relief packages, including state and lo- ing, the small-business PPP loan program and the cal government relief, expanded unemployment, Trump tax cuts. They will also train their sights on additional direct payments and expanded interna- the fracking industry, Wall Street and for-profit tional aid. A large infrastructure package, includ- healthcare ventures to highlight health care afford- ing significant energy and environmental mea- ability and expanded consumer protections. Big sures, will also have a greater chance of passage. tech and big telecom will both have their hands full The Biden Administration could use infrastructure in a 50-50 Senate. Members from both sides of the legislation to carry enhanced investments in re- aisle have been vocal in their criticism of big tech in newable energy, charging stations, weatherization particular. Both Democrats and Republicans have and green building technologies. It could also be concerns about Section 230’s free-speech protec- a vehicle for extra funding in rural broadband and tions of social media platforms as well as antitrust school construction. and privacy issues. Given their majority status, Democrats will be well With the tightest majorities in recent history, Dem- positioned to employ the fast-track reconcilia- ocrats will have control but little margin for error. tion process to pass legislative priorities, including They will still need to work with Republicans to get changes to the tax code, shoring up the Afford- things done. 4 Quarterly Report, JANUARY 2021 BGRDC.com II. Bipartisan Take BIDEN RIGHT MAN FOR THIS REPUBLICANS RETAIN TIME IN WASHINGTON INFLUENCE IN 2021 BY CHAY ENGLISH BY JENNIFER LARKIN LUKAWSKI Official Washington and the The 2020 election results re- Biden-Harris administration flect how deeply divided our are facing a slim Democratic nation is. While Democrats majority in the House (cur- won the White House by re- rently 222-211 with a few re- versing gains made by Presi- maining uncalled races) and a dent Trump in the Midwest 50-50 Senate. and expanding support in the Sun Belt, voters in key swing As a former senator and vice states such as Florida, Iowa president, President-elect and Ohio rejected the left- Biden is well qualified to navi- leaning agenda of the Demo- gate these shoals. He represents cratic Party. Democrats are poised to achieve a the old guard of the Senate and prides himself on 50-50 split in the Senate by flipping both of Geor- his ability to work with Republicans to get things gia’s Senate seats out of Republican hands but will done. During the Obama administration, he was be walking a tightrope as they manage the slim- often dispatched to Capitol Hill to try and build mest majority possible. Republicans, meanwhile, bipartisan support for the White House’s agenda defied expectations by gaining seats in the House with some success. and maintained and improved their standings in Biden is also coming to office after an exhausting state legislatures across the country. and polarized four years. His lower-key approach Even as Democrats assume control in the Con- could be welcomed as a tonic to the high drama gress, Republicans will have a larger voice than of the Trump era; he certainly hopes it will be. many expect. The loss of the Senate majority is During his victory speech, Biden made a plea for a gut punch for Republicans to be sure. But in a cooperation rather than confrontation. He said: 50-50 split, power does not rest with the major- “The refusal of Democrats and Republicans to co- ity alone. Many centrist Republicans will be criti- operate with one another is not due to some mys- cal to any deal making. The McConnell-Biden English continued on next page Lukawski continued on next page 5 English continued Lukawski continued terious force beyond our control. relationship will also be important. It’s a decision. It’s a choice we make. Chuck Schumer may be the de facto And if we can decide not to cooper- Majority Leader but Mitch McCon- ate, then we can decide to cooperate.