Political Science Department Central European University Budapest Structure, Determinants and Political Consequences of Political Attitudes: Evidence from Serbia Doctoral Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Central European University, Department of Political Science by Bojan Todosijević Supervisor: Professor Zsolt Enyedi June 25, 2005 I herby declare that this thesis contains no materials accepted for any other degrees in any other institutions. This thesis contains no materials previously written and/ published by another person, unless otherwise noted. __________________________ Bojan Todosijević ii Acknowledgements I wish to thank Zsolt Enyedi, Gábor Tóka, Bernhard Wessels, Kevin Deegan-Krause, Angela Pok, and James Wagner, for their academic and other help during the work on this research. I dedicate this dissertation to my wife Olja (although she deserves something better). Bojan Todosijević Tavankut iii Table of contents Acknowledgements ...........................................................................................................................iii List of Tables......................................................................................................................................1 List of Figures.....................................................................................................................................2 ABSTRACT...............................................................................................................................................3 INTRODUCTION TO THE PROBLEM: IDEOLOGY AND POLITICAL BEHAVIOR............................................4 Ideology as an object of research...................................................................................................6 General conceptual framework ......................................................................................................8 The Problem of Individual Differences............................................................................................10 Understanding Political Action ........................................................................................................12 Why New Democracies? ..................................................................................................................14 The case of Serbia ........................................................................................................................16 Relevance of the Main Research Problem........................................................................................17 General Methodological Approach ..................................................................................................20 The Problem – A Recapitulation ......................................................................................................23 SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGICAL RESEARCH ON THE STRUCTURE OF SOCIO-POLITICAL ATTITUDES.............27 The Basic Paradigm..........................................................................................................................28 Early Studies.....................................................................................................................................30 The Two-dimensional Model of Hans Eysenck ...............................................................................32 Conservatism as Unidimensional and Bipolar Dimension (Wilson) ................................................36 Kerlinger’s Dualistic Theory............................................................................................................41 Outliers .............................................................................................................................................44 Summary and Implications...............................................................................................................46 Substantive implications...............................................................................................................47 Methodological implications........................................................................................................50 DIMENSIONS OF POLITICAL SPACE IN POLITICAL SCIENCE LITERATURE...............................................53 Attitude Consistency ........................................................................................................................53 Conceptualization and Measurement of Ideology ............................................................................55 Left-right ideological dimension ..................................................................................................58 Multidimensional models .............................................................................................................63 Multidimensional ideology on the philosophical and concrete level ...........................................64 Grid-group model.........................................................................................................................68 Marriage of information and predisposition................................................................................69 Summary.......................................................................................................................................70 Explanatory Accounts ......................................................................................................................71 Social cleavage model..................................................................................................................73 Cleavages and value orientations ................................................................................................75 The role of occupation (Kitschelt 1994).......................................................................................76 New politics - the emergence of new issues and conflicts ............................................................81 Parties as factors influencing structuration of attitudes ..............................................................85 Post-Communist Context..................................................................................................................88 The role of the regime divide........................................................................................................90 The role of social structure ..........................................................................................................94 iv Historical legacies........................................................................................................................97 DEVELOPMENT OF THE SERBIAN PARTY SYSTEM 1990-2002 ............................................................107 The First Pluralist Elections for the Serbian Parliament, December 1990 .....................................108 The Formation of the Authoritarian – Democratic Division ..........................................................110 War and Peace ................................................................................................................................112 Nationalism is Out of Fashion: Elections from 1995 to 1997 ........................................................115 Kosovo and NATO.........................................................................................................................117 The First Regime Change...............................................................................................................119 Two Years in Democracy: Split within the Democratic Bloc ........................................................121 Resume: Political Transformations on the Level of Elite Politics..................................................123 SUMMARY AND HYPOTHESES..............................................................................................................126 Social-psychological Literature......................................................................................................129 Political Science Literature.............................................................................................................131 Hypothetical Model of Political Attitudes......................................................................................133 Explanation of individual differences.........................................................................................135 Hypotheses .....................................................................................................................................137 Hypotheses about the structure of ideology ...............................................................................139 Hypotheses about the causal model ...........................................................................................142 A cleavage of world-views..........................................................................................................148 Broader Framework........................................................................................................................150 METHOD..............................................................................................................................................152 Surveys and Samples......................................................................................................................152 2002 Survey of Belgrade residents.............................................................................................152