DAVID STERMAN AND NATE ROSENBLATT ALL JIHAD IS LOCAL VOLUME II ISIS in North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula APRIL 2018 About the Authors About New America David Sterman is a senior policy analyst We are dedicated to renewing America by continuing at New America and holds a master’s the quest to realize our nation’s highest ideals, honestly degree from Georgetown’s Center for confronting the challenges caused by rapid technological Security Studies. His current research and social change, and seizing the opportunities those focuses on terrorism and violent changes create. extremism in America, immigration and terrorist threats, foreign fighter recruitment, and the effectiveness and Find out more at newamerica.org/our-story. consequences of American counterterrorism efforts. In the past, he edited Foreign Policy Magazine’s South Asia Channel. He graduated cum laude from Dartmouth About the International Security Program College in 2012. The International Security program aims to provide Nate Rosenblatt is a New America evidence-based analysis of some of the thorniest International Security program fellow, questions facing American policymakers and the public. Oxford University doctoral student, and We are largely focused on South Asia and the Middle East, independent Middle East/North Africa extremist groups such as ISIS, al-Qaeda and affiliated (MENA) consultant. He employs mixed- groups, the proliferation of drones, homeland security, methods approaches to understanding local conflict and and the activities of U.S. Special Forces and the CIA. development dynamics in fragile parts of MENA states. He The program is also examining how warfare is changing has lived, worked, and conducted field research in Turkey, because of emerging technologies, such as drones, cyber Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Morocco, Kuwait, and the United Arab threats, and space-based weaponry, and asking how the Emirates. He can be found on Twitter at @naterosenblatt. nature and global spread of these technologies is likely to change the very definition of what war is. Acknowledgments Funding for the International Security program’s efforts The authors would like to thank Peter Bergen, a vice is provided by a number of organizational grants, as well president of New America, who oversaw and helped as the generous donations of several individuals on the shepherd this project to completion, Daveed Gartenstein- program’s Advisory Council. Ross of Valens Global, Chris Meserole of the Brookings Institution, and Konstantin Kakaes and Ryan Greer, both Organizations include: Arizona State University, Brown fellows with New America’s International Security program, Advisory, Carnegie Corporation of New York, John D. for reviewing versions of this paper. The authors would and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, Open Society also like to thank Yasir Kuoti for research assistance, as Foundations, and the Smith Richardson Foundation. well as Albert Ford, Alyssa Sims, Elizabeth Miller, and Kyra Individuals on the Advisory Council include: Chip Kaye, Ward at New America. Finally, the authors would like to Tom Freston, Fred Hassan, Rita Hauser, and Bob Niehaus. thank Joanne Zalatoris, Ellie Budzinski, and Ross van der Linde, at New America for their excellent work developing Find out more at newamerica.org/international- the visuals for this paper and laying out the text. security. Cover video still: Sky News. Contents Introduction 4 Methodology 9 North Africa 14 Libya 20 Tunisia 28 Arabian Peninsula 42 Saudi Arabia 48 Bahrain 56 Conclusions and Policy Recommendations 58 Appendix 62 Appendix I. The ISIS Registration Form 62 Appendix II. The ISIS Registration Form – Translated 63 Appendix III. The ISIS Fighters From North Africa 64 Appendix IV. The ISIS Fighters From the Arabian Peninsula 67 Notes 72 Figure 1: Per Capita TUNISIA (PAGE 28) ISIS Recruitment by Province MOROCCO KUWAIT ALGERIA Fighter Rate by Province LIBYA (Fighters per 100,000 Sunni Residents) (PAGE 20) BAHRAIN (PAGE 56) QATAR 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 SAUDI ARABIA UAE No Data (PAGE 48) OMAN YEMEN HAIL (NEJD) QASSIM (NEJD) DERNA MEDENINE MEDINA KEBILI BENGHAZI RIYADH (NEJD) TATAOUINE MECCA TUNISIAN HOTSPOTS LIBYAN HOTSPOTS SAUDI HOTSPOTS INTRODUCTION Syria’s civil war attracted tens of thousands of men individuals join terrorist groups. However, our and women from around the world. By 2014, their analysis finds patterns of ISIS recruitment that start most popular destination was the so-called Islamic with the local communities that foreign fighters State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS),1 which attracted more came from. foreign fighters than any Salafi-Jihadist2 group in history.3 In the past year, various coalitions Key Findings: of Kurdish, Iraqi, Syrian, American and other international forces have retaken the vast majority • North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula had of ISIS-controlled territory. As ISIS lost territory, distinct patterns of ISIS mobilization. Fighters it also lost its ability to attract foreign fighters. from North Africa were socioeconomically Nevertheless, the question remains: Why did so underprivileged and came from regions many leave their homes and travel hundreds or characterized by a lack of access to economic thousands of miles to join ISIS? and political power. Meanwhile, ISIS fighters from the Arabian Peninsula were relatively better This study tries to answer that question in North off and came from regions with closer links to Africa and the Arabian Peninsula by examining political elites. data on over 1,800 ISIS fighters who came from these regions, two of the most significant recruiting • Grand theories on the causes of grounds for ISIS, in 2013 and 2014.4 When these radicalization miss essential local individuals enlisted with ISIS, they filled out differences. While regional patterns exist, enrollment forms that included personal questions jihadist recruitment draws upon specific local such as age, employment history and educational dynamics that vary even within the two regions background. We analyze those forms in conjunction examined here. There are no shortcuts to with census data, records of protest and other countering the appeal of ISIS and related groups: sources on previous terrorist recruitment efforts. Local contexts must be properly understood to formulate effective counterterrorism and Terrorist attacks inspired by ISIS and similar counter-radicalization responses. groups remain a pressing worry around the world. As a result, a clear understanding of why these In North Africa: recruits joined ISIS remains vital to countering the continued jihadist terrorist threat. • The Arab Spring and its aftermath created opportunities for jihadists to organize and Ascertaining human motivation for participation mobilize on a wider scale than previously in terrorism is complex: Decades of research has possible. Jihadists quickly organized in the found no single rationale that can explain why aftermath of the Arab Spring of 2011, creating the 4 INTERNATIONAL SECURITY Instead of debating which theory best explains ISIS mobilization, analysts should focus on where different theories have the most explanatory value foundations for ISIS’ mobilization of fighters en • In Libya, jihadists were able to operate masse. and recruit openly amid the patchwork of militias that emerged following • Libya and Tunisia, where governments Ghaddafi’s fall. More than half of fell during the Arab Spring, produced Libyan ISIS fighters reported having prior more fighters per capita than Morocco experience in jihadist conflicts, almost and Algeria, where governments survived entirely in Libya. local protests. Eighteen of the top 20 provinces ISIS fighters came from in North • Key ISIS figures took advantage of a lack Africa were in Libya or Tunisia. of state security or law enforcement to recruit openly. They included Turki al- • In Tunisia, ISIS built upon local Salafi- Binali, who traveled to Libya to recruit Jihadist recruiting networks like Ansar fighters and would become ISIS’ top al-Sharia, which took advantage of the religious authority. post-Ben Ali environment of political openness to openly promote jihad. • In the chaos, many Tunisians used Libya Tunisian ISIS fighters often listed Ansar as a recruiting ground for ISIS, to gain al-Sharia’s leaders as having recommended training in combat and as a way station them to join ISIS. to reach Syria. • Kamal Zarrouk, a top Ansar al-Sharia • Most provinces in North Africa with high leader, openly toured Tunisia to promote rates of ISIS fighter recruitment were fighting in Syria and is explicitly cited economically and politically marginalized. by at least two Tunisian ISIS fighters as They had high rates of underemployment, having recommended them to ISIS. lack of political representation and poor access to social services compared to their • Tariq al-Harzi, also known as Abu national contexts. The geographic origins of Omar, an ISIS figure with ties to Ansar ISIS recruits from North Africa suggest the group al-Sharia, was listed as a recommender took advantage of long-standing frustrations in for 13 Tunisian fighters. His brother Ali marginalized communities to mobilize fighters. al-Harzi, another Ansar al-Sharia figure also known as Abu Zubayr, was listed as • Derna (Libya) and Kebili (Tunisia) were a recommender for 27 Tunisian fighters. the two provinces in North Africa with the highest rates of ISIS fighters. Nearly • Noureddine Chouchane, an Ansar al- three-quarters of fighters from these Sharia figure who ran an ISIS camp in provinces reported little