University of Groningen Performance Analysis in Elite Sports Talsma, Bertus Gatze IMPORTANT NOTE: You are advised to consult the publisher's version (publisher's PDF) if you wish to cite from it. Please check the document version below. Document Version Publisher's PDF, also known as Version of record Publication date: 2013 Link to publication in University of Groningen/UMCG research database Citation for published version (APA): Talsma, B. G. (2013). Performance Analysis in Elite Sports. University of Groningen, SOM research school. Copyright Other than for strictly personal use, it is not permitted to download or to forward/distribute the text or part of it without the consent of the author(s) and/or copyright holder(s), unless the work is under an open content license (like Creative Commons). Take-down policy If you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediately and investigate your claim. Downloaded from the University of Groningen/UMCG research database (Pure): http://www.rug.nl/research/portal. For technical reasons the number of authors shown on this cover page is limited to 10 maximum. Download date: 25-09-2021 Performance Analysis in Elite Sports Statistical Comparison, Development, Ranking, and Selection in Speed Skating and Soccer Bertus G. Talsma Published by: University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands Printed by: Ipskamp Drukkers B.V., Enschede, The Netherlands ISBN: 978-90-367-6167-3 c 2013, Bertus G. Talsma Alle rechten voorbehouden. Niets uit deze uitgave mag worden verveelvoudigd, opgeslagen in een geautomatiseerd gegevensbestand, of openbaar gemaakt, in enige vorm of op enige wijze, hetzij elektronisch, mechanisch, door fotokopieen,¨ opnemen of enige andere manier, zonder voorafgaande schriftelijke toestemming van de auteur. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system of any nature, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying or recording, without prior written permission of the author. This document was prepared using the LATEX document preparing system. RIJKSUNIVERSITEIT GRONINGEN Performance Analysis in Elite Sports Statistical Comparison, Development, Ranking, and Selection in Speed Skating and Soccer Proefschrift ter verkrijging van het doctoraat in de Economie en Bedrijfskunde aan de Rijksuniversiteit Groningen op gezag van de Rector Magnificus, dr. E. Sterken, in het openbaar te verdedigen op donderdag 28 november 2013 om 12.45 uur door Bertus Gatze Talsma geboren op 1 april 1983 te Wonseradeel Promotores: Prof. dr. G. Sierksma Prof. dr. R.H. Teunter Beoordelingscommissie: Prof. dr. R.H. Koning Prof. dr. F.C.R. Spieksma Prof. dr. J.A.A. van der Veen ISBN: 978-90-367-6167-3 Preface This PhD project has given me the opportunity to combine two of my interests, namely sports and statistics/mathematics. For the past seven years, I have worked (most of the times) with great pleasure and enthusiasm on this thesis, and now that the work is completed, I would like to thank all people that have supported me. First of all, I would like to express my thankfulness to my supervisor Gerard Sierksma, who shares my interest in sports and stats/math. He suggested to me to become a PhD student, and I am proud to be his last student. Gerard: “I would like to thank you for all the help and effort that you put into this project, especially for your patience and for the countless fruitful discussions we had about the con- tent of this thesis and relating sport issues.” Furthermore, I would like to thank my second supervisor Ruud Teunter for his support during the final stages of the project. I would also thank the members of the dissertation committee: prof.dr. R.H. Kon- ing (University of Groningen), prof.dr. F.C.R. Spieksma (KU Leuven), and prof.dr. J.A.A. van der Veen (Nyenrode Business University) for their time and the valuable comments they gave me. I am grateful to SOM, which provided me the support I needed in the more dif- ficult times and the extra time they allowed me to complete this thesis. In particular I am thankful to Martin Land, Linda Toolsma, and Jet ter Heegte. I want to thank the following people I worked with during my PhD period and who contributed to this thesis. Richard Kamps, Ronald Schoonbeek, and Egbert van der Veen are acknowledged for using their bachelor theses in support of my work. The KNSB co-operators, and especially Arie Koops, are acknowledged for the joined work regarding the Olympic speed skating selection procedures. Ronald Kres is ac- knowledged for collecting the soccer data, and dr. Gerard Kuper for co- writing the 1000m-paper. All colleagues of ORTEC-TSS, the company where I worked part-time during my PhD period and where I have started working after the completion of this thesis, are acknowledged for creating an inspiring work environment. 5 Furthermore, I would like to thank my office mates, Lolke, Marcel, Dimtri, and the fellow PhD candidates and colleagues of the Operations Department for the great time we spent together. Not only work related but also outside work, I would like to thank the people who supported me during the research process. All members of FDTD: “Due to you I spent too many hours in Middle Earth, but it was always fun with you on TS.” My teammates from the VV Blauwhuis soccer team: “Although we did not always win, it was always a pleasure to come back from Groningen and to spend the Sunday with you on the soccer field.” My classmates from secondary school, Klaas Hendrik, Jelte, Niels, Steven, Hen- driekje, Jose,´ Sylvia and Rina: “I have always enjoyed our traditional Christmas dinners and I hope we will continue this tradition for a long time.” My two friends and paranymphs, Richard and Arjen: “Thank you for all the time we spent together and your support during my final defense.” Arjen: “It was al- ways a pleasure to spend my Saturdays with you while working outdoors, clearing my head during cutting and piling wood logs. But ’five o’clock’ I liked the most.” Richard: ”I greatly value our friendship. You are a true friend and I always enjoy hanging out at your place, just to relax, playing games and drinking beer. Your humor and perspective motivated me in moments when I needed it and kept me going.” “Thank you both for everything.” Furthermore, I would like to thank my family and all of my other friends for their support.“You all motivated and encouraged me to finish my thesis.” As lˆestewol ik heit en mem tanksizze foar al harren stipe en soargen, dy’t sy my jˆun hawwe yn dizze perioade. It wie altyd noflik om wykeins wer efkes th´uste wˆezen.Tige tank. Contents 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Introduction . .1 2 All Time Performance Comparison: Speed Skating Rankings 11 2.1 Introduction . 11 2.1.1 Ranking systems in sports . 11 2.1.2 Adelskalender . 12 2.1.3 Types of ranking lists . 12 2.1.4 Ranking speed skaters . 12 2.1.5 Preview of this chapter . 13 2.2 Speed skating: basics and rules . 13 2.2.1 Speed skating rink . 14 2.2.2 Distances and tournaments . 14 2.2.3 Winning scores, the samalog system . 16 2.2.4 Data set . 17 2.3 The development of skating times and participation numbers . 19 2.3.1 General performance level . 20 2.3.2 Technological innovations . 21 2.3.3 Maturity of the sport . 23 2.3.4 Gould’s hypothesis . 24 2.3.5 Population and participation changes . 26 2.4 The ranking system . 31 2.4.1 Speed skating disciplines . 31 2.4.2 What defines a best skater? . 32 2.4.3 Performance score . 32 2.4.4 Ranking score criteria . 33 2.5 Best skater indicators . 36 2.5.1 Tournament winners . 36 2.5.2 World records . 39 2.5.3 Rankings based on ’medals’ . 41 i 2.5.4 Drawbacks of existing ranking methodologies . 50 2.5.5 The Bridging Model . 50 2.6 The USS performance score . 53 2.6.1 Box plots of r-times . 53 2.6.2 AV-values . 55 2.6.3 Influence of the maturity level . 60 2.6.4 Correcting for the influence of the maturity level . 62 2.6.5 Testing the performance score criteria and the pre-condition . 69 2.7 The ranking model . 72 2.7.1 Seasonal performance score . 72 2.7.2 Best seasons . 74 2.7.3 Olympic Games restriction . 79 2.7.4 Ranking model . 82 2.8 Results . 83 2.8.1 Model solving . 83 2.8.2 Ranking lists . 85 2.8.3 Performance and ranking score criteria . 88 2.8.4 Analyzing the output criteria . 88 2.9 Scenario analysis . 94 2.9.1 Tournament weights . 94 2.9.2 Discussion of the penalty function . 99 2.9.3 Number of seasons . 102 2.10 Conclusions . 105 2.10.1 Limitations and further research . 106 3 Performance Comparisons of Dutch Professional Soccer Players 109 3.1 Introduction . 109 3.2 Competitions and tournaments . 110 3.2.1 Club team football . 110 3.2.2 National team football . 111 3.2.3 Team rankings . 112 3.3 Ranking model . 114 3.3.1 Ranking criteria . 114 3.3.2 Ranking model . 115 3.4 Ranking results . 132 3.4.1 Results . 133 3.5 Discussion . 137 3.5.1 Influence of field position corrections . 139 3.5.2 Fixed season budget for the European club tournament .