›››››››››››››››››› COMPLETED PROJECT ››››››››››››››››› ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS AND COST-BENEFIT ANALYSES OF ADAPTATION STRATEGIES IN COASTAL AREAS OF QUÉBEC VULNERABILITIES, IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION PROGRAM: MARITIME ENVIRONMENT PROJECT START AND END DATES DECEMBER 2013 • MARCH 2016 INFORMATION François Morneau [email protected] 514-282-6464 www.ouranos.ca PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATORS • Claude Desjarlais, Ouranos • Manon Circé, Ouranos C O N TEX T OTHER PARTICIPANTS Québec’s coastline extends over 6,000 km, from the St. Lawrence estuary to the Magdalen • Municipalités locales Islands and is home to numerous coastal communities, including a number of urban and • Université du Québec à Rimouski (UQAR) economic centres. Coastal areas are also important for recreation and employment, notably • Gouvernement du Québec for the tourism and fishing industries. Climate change (CC) is already threatening these communities. Although research on the impacts of CC has been underway for a decade in FUNDED BY Quebec, the assessment of the communities’ vulnerabilities to these impacts, the estimation of impact costs and the identification of appropriate adaptation strategies have just begun. OBJECTIVE • Assess the economic impacts of CC along Québec’s maritime coastline; • Estimate the costs and benefits of various adaptation strategies to coastal erosion and flooding and identify the most economically profitable solution from a societal perspective; • Integrate the results of the cost-benefit analyses completed in Québec with the results from comparable economic assessments conducted in the Atlantic provinces. METHODOLOGY • Develop erosion and flooding scenarios for the municipalities targeted by the study -- Carleton-sur-mer, Maria, Percé, Magdalen Islands, and MRC Kamouraska; • Assess the potential impacts associated with the CC scenarios; • Identify adaptation strategies to minimize the potential impacts; ca • . Estimate the direct costs and benefits of the adaptation strategies; • Quantify and estimate the indirect costs and benefits; • Compare the costs and benefits over a horizon extending to 2065; • Conduct sensitivity analyses; • Estimate the overall cost of CC impacts for Québec’s coastal regions; • Calculate the cost-benefit ratios and the net present value for the analyzed adaptation strategies. anos r See reverse side for results REFERENCE Circé, M., Da Silva, L., Boyer-Villemaire, U., Duff, G., Desjarlais, C. et Morneau, F. (2016) Analyse coûts-avantages d’options d’adaptation en zone côtière au Québec – Rapport .ou synthèse. Ouranos, Montréal. 92 pages et annexes. w All deliverables from this project including regional and synthesis reports are available online : https://www.ouranos.ca/en/programs/economic-evalutaion/ ww ››››››››››››››››››› COMPLETED PROJ ECT (CONT’D )›››››››››››› ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS AND COST-BENEFIT ANALYSES OF ADAPTATION STRATEGIES IN COASTAL 40 AREAS OF QUÉBEC RESULTS A hole in the economy? Millions $ The costs of erosion The absence of intervention on the over the next 50 years in coast of Anse du Sud in Percé would lead to more than $700 million in 35 Quebec economic losses for the Gaspésie region. Cultivating compromise! 5426 buildings The rehabilitation to a natural state of 14 ha of farmland will ensure the 30 cultivation of more than 300 ha in the Kamouraska sector over the long term. 24 km of rails Unique campsite to preserve Beach nourishment of the Banc Larocque 25 will ensure the sustainability of the campsite 296 km of roads at Carleton-sur-Mer and its beautiful viewpoints of the Baie des Chaleurs. 1,5 G$ of 20 damages 1 – Not intervening is not an option. Average cost of not intervening: $372 million Segments sheltering assets or characteristics considered to be considerable regional tourist attraction 15 2 – Net advantage to intervene Average cost of not intervening: $6.3 million Segments of low cliffs or beach terrace with numerous assets at risk 3 – Small advantage to intervene Average cost of not intervening: $540,000 Segments with an important asset but local in scope 10 4 – Within a margin of $25,000 Average cost of not intervening: $550,000 Only measures without intervention on the coast are economically justified 5 – No economic advantage to intervene 5 Average cost of not intervening: $935,000 Segments with low density and values of at-risk assets 0 -5 BENEFITS FOR ADAPTATION Support municipalities and stakeholders in their efforts to improve the long-term management of coastal development and assets and to justify certain preventive interventions. Continue to raise awareness around issues of climate change adaptation in coastal areas by mobilizing officials at different levels in the various regions across Québec. Develop a basis to guide provincial actors in putting together an integrated, coherent coastal area management strategy that would promote the development of priority actions rather than scattered initiatives. ›››››››››››››››››››››››››››››››› .