Christian Bleuer and Said Reza Kazemi BETWEEN CO-OPERATION AND INSULATION Afghanistan’s Relations with the Central Asian Republics EXECUTIVE SUMMARY and neighbouring Central Asia and of local government authorities, commanders, traders, The various problems in Afghanistan, from security to insurgents and Islamists in northern Afghanistan, economics, are often acknowledged as having a although all these categories are often overlapping. regional component. In this context, rightly so, the The research in this report focuses especially on local focus is mostly on Pakistan and, to a lesser extent, on and regional security trends involving Afghanistan Iran. Other states and actors in the broader region and the Central Asia republics. In this regard, both are given less attention by analysts. This report seeks state and non-state level interactions are analysed. to address, in a comprehensive manner, one region of The findings of this report note the difficulty in not concern within the various foreign relationships of only accurately assessing current security-related Afghanistan – the former Soviet republics of Central trends, but especially so in predicting future security Asia to the north. In contrast to many other reports scenarios. Nevertheless, this report argues that that treat these countries (Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, security risks that link Afghanistan to the former Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan; only the Soviet republics of Central Asia are often highly former three directly bordering at Afghanistan) as if exaggerated, especially so the alleged link between they were a homogenous region (the ‘–stans’), here narcotics trafficking and radical Islamist groups. In they are analysed separately, as each forms its own reality, throughout Central Asia the main players in foreign policy – often in a bilateral manner, narcotics trafficking are government employees, eschewing genuine regional co-operation. In addition, security officers and mafia figures. Further findings the US and Russian roles played in security, economic point to a lack of a serious threat to the Central Asian and counter-narcotics fields within Central Asia will republics from terrorists and insurgents in northern be illuminated, as both of those states have recently Afghanistan, who are overwhelmingly recruited from increasingly seen their engagement in Central Asia as among Afghan citizens and focused locally. related, by varying degrees, to Afghanistan. Attributing a significant level of insurgent activities to On the Afghan side, special attention is given not just the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) and trans- to the formulation of foreign relations with the national fighters is an exaggeration and politically Central Asian republics by the central government in motivated. The anti-government fighters in the north Kabul, but also to the actions and motivations of are of a local character, with the Uzbek insurgents influential actors in northern Afghanistan towards among them being Afghan Uzbeks rather than being them. This includes an assessment of connections from across the border in Uzbekistan and not between current northern Afghan political opposition necessarily linked to the IMU. 2 Bleuer and Kazemi: Between Co-operation and Insulation As for ethnic connections in general, the findings of be a threat, does not subscribe to alarmist this research are that Central Asian governments and assessments in private. Rather, the focus is on citizens do not share any remarkable affinity for their domestic controls over the people of Uzbekistan and co-ethnics in Afghanistan. Rather, relations– in potential – and realistic – rivals for power inside narcotics trafficking, business, strategic relations, etc Uzbekistan. – are largely formed based on mutually beneficial Tajikistan is left as the most vulnerable state in interests, not on ethnic sympathies. Central Asia with regard to trends in Afghanistan. Its Overall, the governments of Central Asia are focused relatively weak government and unprofessional on internal threats to their rule – threats which have security forces have not proved highly successful in little to nothing to do with Afghanistan. Kazakhstan is recent years. However, security problems in Tajikistan by far the most insulated from Afghanistan, and the are highly localised and have few, if any, direct modest security risks it faces are tied to other connections to Afghanistan. Near-term risks in regions. In contrast to all other Central Asian leaders, Tajikistan, as in other Central Asia countries, are Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev rejects the overwhelmingly domestic despite being more post-2014 “catastrophic theories” of security in comprehensively connected to Afghanistan than the Central Asia related to Afghanistan. Kazakhstan is other Central Asian republics. As for economic somewhat notable for its attempts to position itself connections, the post-2001 increase in cross-border as a mediator or leader for various small initiatives trade has not been large enough to make Afghanistan related to Afghanistan, such as hosting conferences a valuable trade partner for Tajikistan. Ethnic for diplomatic and multilateral initiatives, offering a connections and personal ties between northern wide range of student scholarships to Afghan Afghan powerbrokers and Tajik government officials students, and assisting Afghanistan via its have not created any solid and lasting relations that international development agency KazAid. can compensate for the lack of common interests in forging stronger cross-border bonds. Kyrgyzstan faces a similar situation, with threats to security and stability being overwhelmingly internal. Despite quite considerable growth since 2001 that Like Kazakhstan, incidents of militant violence here has benefited people in the border areas and beyond are also more so connected to the North Caucasus, (but starting from a very low level), particularly locally not Afghanistan. Kyrgyzstan is geographically isolated along the frontier between Afghanistan and Central from Afghanistan and, with the closure of the US air Asian republics, economic integration in the region base near the capital Bishkek, has increasingly few will continue to suffer. This is due to Afghanistan and concerns related to Afghanistan. Unlike Kazakhstan, the countries of Central Asia being marginal economic Kyrgyzstan does not have the resources or hinterlands connected not so much among each international clout to contribute much to regional other but in different directions (Afghanistan to multilateral and bilateral initiatives focused on or Pakistan and Iran; Central Asia to Russia and China), including Afghanistan. combined with serious security and infrastructure problems, as well as the tendency of the states in this Meanwhile, Turkmenistan, while noted for its region to avoid genuine multilateral co-operation apparent isolation from Afghanistan, has actually while embracing restrictive border regimes. US often quietly formed obscured arrangements with strategic plans to move the Central Asian republics various actors in Afghanistan over the last two away from the Russian sphere of influence and decades. Turkmenistan has hopes for some significant connect the region economically to Afghanistan and economic infrastructure that would tie it to South Asia failed completely – aside from some Afghanistan, especially the proposed TAPI modest gains in terms of electricity exports to (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India) pipeline. Afghanistan. The real gains in economic ties to Nevertheless, scepticism remains about its fate Central Asia have been made instead by China. amidst deteriorating security and a lack of funding. For Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, their economic ties Uzbekistan, with arguably the most formidable are overwhelmingly in the direction of China and domestic security forces in the region, perceives a Russia. Afghanistan cannot be expected to offer certain level of security risk from Afghanistan (even anything of significance to their economies. For after a decade without any serious security incidents Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, the economic significance with ties to Afghanistan), and has formulated a policy of Afghanistan can only be felt in some of the smaller of engaging on select economic projects and towns immediately adjacent to the Afghan border. supporting certain proxies within Afghanistan while Closer to the centres of power in these two states strongly restricting population movements and there are some individuals and companies with independent trade across the very short Afghan economic interests in Afghanistan. However, the border. Nevertheless, the government of Uzbekistan, accumulated interests are quite modest when while publically declaring instability in Afghanistan to measured against other, far larger, trade partners. AAN Thematic Report 01/2014 Bleuer and Kazemi: Between Co-operation and Insulation 3 The comparatively short period of time immediately basis of a continued deployment and, when this after the fall of the Taleban was squandered in terms happens, on the number of western forces to remain of using the relatively good security conditions to in Afghanistan after 2014. Nevertheless, the future bolster regional trade, infrastructure and economic co-operation of Central Asian countries with the US connections with the Central Asian republics. It is and various European countries for their operations unsure whether plans for the near future to make up in Afghanistan, if required, would likely