Ministry of Climate Change Government of Pakistan DEVELOP FOREST REFERENCE EMISSION LEVELS/FOREST REFERENCE LEVEL AND NATIONAL FOREST MONITORING SYSTEM, MEASUREMENT, REPORTING AND VERIFICATION SYSTEM FOR REDD++ National Forest Reference Emission Level National Forest Reference Emission Level for Pakistan Draft Final 3.0 February 2019 DISCLAIMER Arbonaut and WWF Pakistan makes its best effort to provide accurate and complete information while developing this document. Copyright © 2019 Ministry of Climate Change, Government of Pakistan All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including, but not limited to, photocopying, recording or otherwise. National Forest Reference Emission Level / Forest Reference Level for Pakistan DRAFT FINAL 3.0 TABLE OF CONTENTS ABBREVIATIONS 5 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 8 National and Sub-National FREL/FRL 2 1. INTRODUCTION 7 1.1 Forest sector and REDD+ context in Pakistan 7 2. REFERENCE TO UNFCCC MODALITIES 13 2.1 UNFCCC modalities 13 2.2 Consistency with national greenhouse gas reporting 15 3. INFORMATION USED FOR DEVELOPMENT OF FREL/FRL 18 3.1 Scale 18 3.2 Scope of activities 18 3.3 Forest definition and stratification 18 3.3.1 Forest definition 18 3.3.2 Stratification 18 3.4 Carbon pools and gases 21 3.5 Historic time period 22 3.6 Rationale for assessing adjustment needs based on the changed national circumstances 22 3.7 Approach and methodology for FREL/FRL establishment 24 3.8 Activity Data 25 3.9 Emission and Removal Factors 28 3.9.1 Forest inventory data for carbon stock modelling 28 3.9.2 Emission and removal factors 30 4. HISTORICAL FOREST COVER, TRENDS, EMISSIONS AND REMOVALS (1996-2016) 34 4.1 National forest cover and trends in 1996-2016 34 4.2 Sub-national forest cover and trends in 1996-2016 36 4.2.1 Azad Jammu and Kashmir (autonomous territory) 36 4.2.2 Balochistan 37 4.2.3 Federally Administered Tribal Area and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 37 4.2.4 Gilgit-Baltistan 38 4.2.5 Punjab 38 4.2.6 Sindh 39 4.3 National and Sub-National FREL/FRL 40 4.4 Analysis of the national activity trends 41 5. FREL/FRL PROJECTIONS AND UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT 43 5.1 Projections (2016-2026) 43 5.2 Uncertainty assessment 44 6. TRANSPARENCY, COMPLETENESS, CONSISTENCY AND UNCERTAINTY OF INFORMATION 46 6.1 Transparency 46 6.2 Completeness 46 6.3 Consistency 46 6.4 Accuracy 46 7. PLAN FOR STEPWISE FREL/FRL IMPROVEMENT 47 8. REFERENCES 49 9. GLOSSARY OF RELEVANT TERMS 51 ANNEXES 56 ANNEX 1. ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARY MAP (SOP, 2012) 57 ANNEX 2. SATELLITE IMAGERY USED FOR LULC/AD MAPPING 58 ANNEX 3. REFERENCE WOOD DENSITITES BY SPECIES 64 ANNEX 4. FOREST CARBON DENSITY (ABOVE- AND BELOWGROUND) AND ANNUAL GROWTH RATES APPLIED BY SUB-NATIONAL AREAS 65 ANNEX 5. HARVESTS AND DISTURBANCES 66 ANNEX 6. NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES 68 ANNEX 7. SUB-NATIONAL ACTIVITY TRENDS (1992-2016) 79 ANNEX 8. JUSTIFICATION OF COMMISSION AND OMISSION OF ACTIVITIES, POOLS AND GASES 82 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1 Land use and cover map 2016. 8 Figure 2 Stratification by the forest types. 19 Figure 3 The SLMS process to estimate the land use and forest cover in Pakistan. 27 Figure 4 National forest cover estimates with 95-% confidence intervals (1996-2016). 34 Figure 5 Annual deforestation rates in Pakistan (2004-2016). 35 Figure 6 Annual forest restoration rates in Pakistan (2004-2016). 35 Figure 7 Net forest land change in Pakistan (2004-2016). 36 Figure 8 Forest cover estimates with 95-% confidence intervals in AJK (1996-2016). 36 Figure 9 Forest cover area with 95-% confidence intervals in Balochistan (1996-2016). 37 Figure 10 Forest cover area with 95-% confidence intervals in FATA-KP (1996-2016). 38 Figure 11 Forest cover estimates with 95-% confidence intervals in GB (1996-2016). 38 Figure 12 Forest cover estimates with 95-% confidence intervals in Punjab (1996-2016). 39 Figure 13 Forest cover estimates with 95-% confidence intervals in Sindh (1996-2016). 39 Figure 14 Historical accounts in national forest emissions and removals (Mt CO₂-e). 40 Figure 15. National gross and net projections 2016-2026. 43 Figure 16 Share of Forestry in GDP of Pakistan (1996-97 to 2015-16). Data Source: Ministry of Finance’s Economic Survey Reports 72 Figure 17 Historical trends in Population dynamics and per capita availability of forests (1996-2019). Data Source: Ministry of Finance’s Economic Survey Reports 73 LIST OF TABLES Table 1 Official area statistics (SoP, 2012) 7 Table 2. Linear plantations controlled by the Forest Departments in 2012- 2013. 9 Table 3. Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation (draft REDD+ Strategy, May 2018). 12 Table 4. Pakistan’s FREL/FRL compliance concerning the relevant UNFCCC COP decisions. 14 Table 5. The forest land tables (3.B.1.a and 3.B.1.b) AFOLU land use 17 Table 6. Activities and carbon pools included in the national FREL/FRL. 22 Table 7 The number of sample plots interpreted visually for the LULC map accuracy assessment by provinces and territories. 26 Table 8 The height-diameter model types, precision (RMSE) and accuracy (bias) by species and species groups. 28 Table 9. The adopted allometric equations for the tree-level aboveground biomass / carbon stock calculation. D refers to diameter at breast height, H to height and ρ to wood density. 29 Table 10. The applied IPCC root-shoot ratios adapted from Table 3A.1.8 of the IPCC Good Practice Guidance (2006). 30 Table 11 Emission and removal factor calculation formulas. 32 Table 12 Carbon stock, emission and emission removal statistics by the sub- national areas and national totals. 41 Table 13 Pakistan’s circumstances against the FREL/FRL upward adjustment criteria. 44 Table 14. The plan for FREL/FRL improvement in the short- and long-term. 47 Table 15 National and Provincial Level Emissions (million tCO₂ eq) due to Wood Consumption (projected from 2003 to 2018). 75 Table 16 Average Annual Timber and Fuelwood Consumption and Associated Emissions (tons of CO₂ eq) for Pakistan 77 Table 17. Province Wise Fuelwood Consumption and Associated Emissions by House Hold Sector 78 ABBREVIATIONS AD Activity data AFOLU Agriculture, Forestry and Land Use AGB Aboveground Biomass AGC Aboveground Carbon AJK Azad Jammu & Kashmir (autonomous territory) ALGAS Asia Least-cost Greenhouse Gas Abatement Strategy ASAD Applied System Analysis Division BAU Business as Usual BEF Biomass Expansion Factor BGB Belowground Biomass BGC Belowground Carbon BN Balochistan (province) cm Centimetre CO2-e Carbon dioxide equivalent CoP Conference of Parties DBH Diameter at breast height (at 1.3 m or 1.37 m height from the ground level) DWC Deadwood Carbon EF Emission Factor FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations FATA Federally Administered Tribal Areas FCPF Forest Carbon Partnership Facility FD Forest Department (provincial) FREL Forest Reference Emissions Levels GB Gilgit-Baltistan (autonomous territory) GCISC Global Change Impact Studies Centre GEF Global Environment Facility GFRA Global Forest Resource Assessment GHG Greenhouse Gas GHG-I Greenhouse Gas Inventory GoP Government of Pakistan ha Hectare (1 ha = 10,000 m2) ICIMOD International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development ICT Islamabad Capital Territory (federal capital territory) IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change km2 Square kilometre (1 km2 = 1,000,000 m2) KP Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (province) LOC Line of Control LULUCF Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry MOCC Ministry of Climate Change MRV Measurement, Reporting and Verification Mt Megaton (1 Mt = 1,000,000 tons) NDMA National Disaster Management Authority NFMS National Forest Monitoring System NFRRAS National Forest and Range Resources Assessment Study NTFP Non-Timber Forest Product PAEC Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission PAK-EPA Pakistan Environmental Protection Agency PAK-INDC Pakistan’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution PB Punjab (province) PFI Pakistan Forest Institute REDD Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation REDD+ Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation and the role of conservation, sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks in developing countries RF Removal Factor RMSE Root Mean Squared Error R-PP Readiness Preparation Proposal SD Sindh (province) SLMS Satellite Land Monitoring System SUPARCO Pakistan Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission THBS Timber Harvesting Ban Study UNFCCC The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UNDP The United Nations Development Programme VHR Very High Resolution WWF World Wildlife Fund ZSD Zoological Survey Department of Pakistan EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Forest sector and REDD+ context in Pakistan Pakistan has the official total area of 796,096 square kilometres (km2) with a current population of 207.8 million (GoP, 2018) placing it at the sixth most populous country of the world. Pakistan is mainly a dry land country, with 80 percent of its land in arid and semi-arid areas. The country is highly exposed to the future climatic threats. The forestry sector, commonly considered as bearing a high natural capital value for the society and a safeguard against climatic threats, has suffered heavily during the past two decades (R-PP MTR 2017). At an average economic growth rate of 4.9 percent from 1952 to 2015 (GoP, 2016), which increased to 5.4 percent on average from 2016 to 2018 (GoP, 2018), Pakistan is classified as lower middle-income and primarily an agrarian country (GoP, 2016). The population directly and indirectly associated with the agriculture sector is estimated to be 42.3 percent (GoP, 2017) with a contribution of 18.9 percent to the overall GDP of the country. The forestry sector having current share of 0.39 percent in overall national GDP posted a growth of 7.17 percent in 2018. In July 2013, Pakistan also became a member of the Forest Carbon Partnership Facility (FCPF) and submitted a REDD+ Readiness Preparation Proposal (R-PP) to the FCPF.