Performance monitoring report on NATIONAL RAIL PASSENGER SERVICES IN THE LONDON AREA Quarter 2 2003-04 (July-September 2003) Prepared by LTUC Research and Policy Team 6 Middle Street London EC1A 7JA January 2004 CONTENTS Section 1 Public performance measure (PPM) Section 2 Lost minutes Section 3 National passenger survey (NPS) Section 4 Passengers in excess of capacity (PIXC) (not reported this quarter) Section 5 Passenger complaints (not reported this quarter) Section 6 Impartial retailing survey (not reported this quarter) Section 7 Glossary and definitions Annex A PPM results for Quarter 2 2003-04 (table) Annex B PPM results for Quarter 2 2003-04 (chart) Annex C 3-year PPM trends – all trains (chart) Annex D 3-year PPM trends – London and south east peak trains (chart) Annex E Lost minutes – Quarter 2 2003-04 (table) Annex F NPS results Autumn 2003 (table) Annex G Narrative commentaries supplied by the following operators: c2c, Chiltern, Connex South Eastern, First Great Eastern, Gatwick Express, Silverlink, South Central, South West Trains, Thames Trains, Thameslink, West Anglia Great Northern, Anglia, First Great Western, Hull Trains, Midland Mainline and Virgin West Coast OVERVIEW OF QUARTER • London and south east operators’ reliability was worse than a year ago, with a 2.3% year-on-year decline. • Wide variation between individual London and south east operators continued, ranging from 11% of trains delayed or cancelled to 33%. • Longer distance operators’ performance was 5.4% worse than the previous year. • Most operators’ results were badly affected by the imposition of speed restrictions because of unusually hot weather during August (with the consequent risk of overheated rails) • The number of trains planned in London and the south east was greater than a year ago, but operators on the longer distance routes planned fewer. • The number of ‘lost minutes’ for all trains attributed to Network Rail rose in comparison to the previous quarter. • The largest single cause of delay to trains was infrastructure defects. • Passenger satisfaction levels were generally lower than the previous year, and users of longer distance services were much less satisfied than in previous National Passenger Surveys. 1. PUBLIC PERFORMANCE MEASURE (PPM) Results for this quarter are tabulated in Annex A. All-trains performance, by train operating company, is shown graphically in Annex B. Each operator's three-year performance, compared with the mean for its group, appears graphically in Annex C. The same information, limited to weekday with-flow peak period trains on the London and south east system (excluding Gatwick Express) appears graphically in Annex D. Some percentages may not sum exactly, because of the effects of rounding. London and south east 1.1 Annexes A and B present a varied picture, with the cancellation and lateness rates for London and the south east operators fluctuating markedly. But in order to eliminate seasonal effects which are cyclical in nature, the comparisons shown in the table are with the equivalent quarter a year earlier. The charts in Annex C show that, for this group of operators taken together, the PPM score was 2.3% worse than in the previous year. 1.2 The total number of trains scheduled was 0.7% greater than a year earlier. Of the eleven operators in this group, five had fewer trains planned than in the previous year. At the level of individual train companies, these totals can show surprisingly large short-term variations, as they are affected not only by planned timetable changes but also by (e.g.) industrial action and engineering “possessions”, i.e. periods when the regular timetable is suspended in order to allow work to be carried out on the track and/or signals. In this quarter, Gatwick Express’s planned level of service (measured by the planned number of trains) was 6.0% higher than a year earlier, while on c2c it was 4.0% lower. 1.3 Of the trains planned, 1.8% were cancelled – a rise of 0.5% since the previous quarter and of 0.2% since the same period in 2002-03. Only two out of the eleven operators in this group cancelled fewer trains than a year ago. The cancellation rate was highest on Thameslink (at 3.5%), while Gatwick Express suffered the highest year-on-year increase of 1.1%. The fewest cancellations occurred on Chiltern (at 0.8%). c2c showed the greatest improvement with a reduction of 2.9%. 1.4 In this group of services, lateness is defined as trains reaching their advertised termini five or more minutes late. Taken as a group, 19.2% of trains were late, an increase of 2.0% over the year and 4.9% over the quarter. Three out of the eleven operators achieved a year-on-year reduction, the highest being that of Chiltern at 1.5%. The operator with the worst increase was Thameslink, with 7.4% more of its services arriving late than in the previous year. 1.5 The net outcome of these changes was that Thameslink had the worst overall punctuality performance, with 29.8% of its trains arriving late. Chiltern had the best performance, with only 10.0% of its trains doing so. It is sometimes suggested that it is difficult for relatively long-distance operators to achieve the same levels of punctuality as those whose trains make shorter journeys – which is why the permitted margin of deviation from advertised time before a train is deemed to be late is greater for the longer distance train companies (10 minutes) than for those running primarily in London and the south east (5 minutes). But this does not adequately account for the variations within each category. The Strategic Rail Authority has conducted a review of Network Rail’s “rules of the plan”, which underpin the timing allowances on which timetables are based, in order to ensure that appropriate account is taken of such changes in the operating environment as new rolling stock, boarding/alighting times required for increased passenger loadings, and “defensive driving” techniques introduced to mitigate the risk of signals passed at danger. This exercise is intended in due course to deliver more robust timetables which should, inter alia, offer better protection against the repercussive impact of individual minor delays. 1.6 The public performance measure (PPM) combines cancellations and lateness in a single performance yardstick. For the London and south east group as a whole, the PPM in this quarter was 2.3% worse than a year ago and 5.3% worse than in the immediately preceding quarter. 1.7 Compared with 2002-03, four London & south east operators showed an improvement, the greatest being that of c2c (up 1.6%). Thameslink experienced an 8.3% drop in PPM, attributable to a surge in both late running and cancellations. Chiltern achieved the best overall outturn PPM result (at 89.1%). The worst PPM result was that of Thameslink (at 66.8%), displacing South West Trains to regain the position of ‘worst in class’. 1.8 Heathrow Express is a wholly commercial service, operated by BAA Rail, and is not subject to the SRA’s franchising requirements (including the disclosure of performance information). The company has, however, voluntarily agreed to supply train performance data to LTUC on the same basis as that which is used for calculating the SRA’s PPM. 1.9 Heathrow Express planned the same number of trains as in the previous year. The proportion of cancelled services was 0.4% higher, and the proportion of late services was 7.2% higher. This change in punctuality affected the overall PPM result (83.9%), but even with this decline Heathrow Express’s PPM result was bettered by only three London and south east operators. 1.10 The graphs in Annex C show the PPM for each London and south east operator (in black) relative to the mean for all operators in the group (in white). They also show, by means of finer lines, the three-year trends for the operator and the group. The seasonality of fluctuations in performance is clearly evident, with a downturn occurring in the third (autumn) quarter of each reporting year. The impact of the post-Hatfield speed restrictions, in quarter 3 of 2000-01, is dramatic, and the subsequent recovery has been slow. 1.11 The operators can be divided into three principal categories : (a) Operators whose performance has improved over time, relative to the group (and is now generally – but not invariably – above average) : Chiltern, First Great Eastern, Gatwick Express and West Anglia Great Northern. [Chiltern has been awarded a franchise renewal. The First Great Eastern franchise is to be absorbed by Greater Anglia, together with the West Anglia component of West Anglia Great Northern.] (b) Operators whose performance has deteriorated over time, relative to the group (and is now generally – but not invariably – below average) : c2c, Thames Trains and Thameslink. [The Thames Trains franchise has been awarded to First Group and is to be absorbed by Greater Western.] (c) Operators whose performance trend over time has broadly matched that of the group as a whole (though it may be better or worse than the average) : Connex South Eastern, Silverlink, South Central and South West Trains. [South Central and South West Trains have been awarded franchise renewals. Connex South Eastern has had its franchise terminated and is now run by South Eastern Trains.] 1.12 The graphs in Annex D show the PPM for the London and south east group limited to weekday with-flow peak period trains, which carry the largest share of their users (excluding Gatwick Express which is not primarily a commuter railway). The general pattern is broadly similar to the all-trains data, though fluctuations tend to be greater.