A s t r a t e g y t o AUTHORS p r o t e Marshall Alphonso, India Jeffrey Kwong, United States c t Laura Appolloni, Italy Alexandre Lasslop, Germany o u r Sylvia Asturias, Guatemala Olivier Leonard, Belgium p l a Jasmin Bourdon, Canada Li Dong, China n e t Claudine Bui, Canada Jean-Marie Lonchard, France f r o Vicky Chouinard, Canada Alexander McDonald, Canada m Melusine Colwell, United Kingdom Michal Misiaszek, Poland N e a Diego d’Udekem, Belgium Riccardo Nadalini, Italy r - E Perry Edmundson, Canada Paul Reilly, Ireland a r t h Andreas Flouris, Greece Jessica Scott, Canada O Damien-Pierre Gardien, France Amaury Solignac, France b j e Stacey Solomone, United States c Arthur Guest, Canada t s Hu Zhe, China Matthias Stein, Germany A strategy to protect our planet from Near-Earth Objects Heather Jansen, United States Aurelie Trur, France S S Rakesh Khullar, United States Zheng Jian, China P 2 0 0 5 FINAL REPORT CASSANDRA A Strategy to Protect our Planet From Near Earth Objects Final Report International Space University Summer Session Program 2005 © International Space University. All Rights Reserved. Cover designed by: Amaury Solignac Image credit: True-color image of the Earth. (NASA - U.S. Geological Survey). Apollo granted Cassandra the gift of prophecy but he also added a twist to the gift: Cassandra was doomed to tell the truth, but never to be believed. Today, we call someone a “Cassandra” whose true words are ignored, since Cassandra’s doom was to predict what others refused to believe. The 2005 Summer Session Program of the International Space University was hosted by the University of British Columbia in Vancouver, Canada. Additional copies of the Executive Summary and the Report may be ordered from the International Space University Headquarters. The Executive Summary, ordering information and order form may also be found on the ISU web site at http://www.isunet.edu International Space University Strasbourg Central Campus Attention: Publications/Library Parc d’Innovation 1 rue Jean-Dominique Cassini 67400 Illkirch-Graffenstaden France Tel. +33 (0)3 88 65 54 32 Fax. +33 (0)3 88 65 54 47 e-mail : [email protected] ii ____________________________ Acknowledgements The International Space University Summer Session Program 2005 and the work on the Team Project were made possible through the generous support of the following individuals and organizations: European Space Agency Project Faculty and Teaching Associate Simon (Pete) Worden, University of Arizona Ray Williamson, George Washington University Cristina de Negueruela, European Space Agency Resources and Reviewers Andrew Ball The Open University Steve Brody NASA Headquarters Carol Carnett Legal Aid Bureau, Inc. Patrick Chatard-Moulin European Defense Agency Eric Dahlstrom InternationalSpace.com James Dator Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies Karl Doetsch Doetsch International Space Consultants Frans von der Dunk European Centre for Space Law Donald Gennery NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (retired) Simon Green The Open University Robert Hawkes Mount Allison University Alan Hildebrand University of Calgary Mikhail Marov Russian Academy of Sciences Joe Nuth NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Amal Rakibi Institut du Droit de l'Espace et des Télécommunications Jakub Ryzenko Polish Space Office Alexandra Seneta Australian Communications and Media Authority Richard Tremaine Smith British National Space Center Paul Henry Tuinder European Commission Rachel Yates Holland & Hart LLP iii _________________________________________ Authors Marshall Alphonso, India Jeffrey Kwong, United States Laura Appolloni, Italy Alexandre Lasslop, Germany Sylvia Asturias, Guatemala Olivier Leonard, Belgium Jasmin Bourdon, Canada Li Dong, China Claudine Bui, Canada Jean-Marie Lonchard, France Vicky Chouinard, Canada Alexander MacDonald, Canada Melusine Colwell, United Kingdom Michal Misiaszek, Poland Diego d’Udekem, Belgium Riccardo Nadalini, Italy Perry Edmundson, Canada Paul Reilly, Ireland Andreas Flouris, Greece Jessica Scott, Canada Damien-Pierre Gardien, France Amaury Solignac, France Arthur Guest, Canada Stacey Solomone, United States Hu Zhe, China Matthias Stein, Germany Heather Jansen, United States Aurelie Trur, France Rakesh Khullar, United States Zheng Jian, China iv _______________________________________ Abstract Our species is currently unprepared to deal with the very real threat posed by Near Earth Objects. The Earth has been struck repeatedly by asteroids and comets throughout its history as part of the regular, dynamic processes of the solar system that continue to this day. These impacts have caused devastating damage on global and regional scales, leaving their mark on the land in the form of craters, and on the people of the Earth, as seen in the stories and oral histories of cataclysmic “fireballs” present in many of the world’s cultures throughout history. The most catastrophic of these collisions have caused mass extinctions of life on the planet. Scientists generally accept that the extinction of the dinosaurs 65 million years ago was caused by an impact from a Near Earth Object. Yet, although these impacts occur with regular frequency for the history of the Earth, they are extremely infrequent on our human time scales. As a result, we have currently underappreciated, and unprepared for, this significant threat. This report reviews the scientific literature on the characteristics of Near Earth Objects, including their composition, orbits, populations and the probabilities and consequences of their collision with the Earth. It examines current systems utilized for the detection of Near Earth Objects focusing on the coordination of these systems and the management of the data. The report proposes avenues for further research in detection technologies and outlines various methods for deflecting or disrupting collisional Near Earth Objects. Because of the inverse relationship between the distance at which deflection measures are begun and the energy required for a successful implementation, improvements in detection technology are highlighted as the best short-term method of increasing the probability of a successful mitigation mission. In the discussion of the assessment, detection and mitigation of the Near Earth Object threat, special attention has been paid to high inclination long-period comets. Current detection programs are unable to provide adequate warning of incoming objects at high inclinations. As a result, potentially impacting high inclination objects would only be detected with very little time (likely less than a year) to prepare a mitigation strategy. Deflection or disruption, through use of a nuclear device, is shown to be the only possible means of mitigation in such circumstances. Emphasis is placed on our current lack of appropriate infrastructure, including heavy launchers, necessary for such a mission. The hypothesized scenario of the Cassandra Comet highlights the particular aspects of responding to a threatening high inclination object. Detection, characterization, and mitigation of hazardous celestial objects involve programs in which of all humanity has a stake. This report explores cultural reactions to Near Earth Objects and the threat they pose and discusses potential public reactions to a mitigation strategy employing a nuclear device. It also reviews the potential for mass media both to strengthen and weaken useful communication between scientists and the public. Near Earth Objects are indiscriminately threatening to the entire planet; all nations, all times. International cooperation is therefore vital to a concerted, long-term effort to defend the Earth from potential impacts. The report identifies a serious gap in command and control of Near Earth Object detection, characterization, and mitigation efforts. It proposes a command and control solution that includes a multi-lateral international framework, the International Near Earth Object Committee (INEOC). The INEOC will serve as the primary forum of international discussion regarding an identified threat and will serve to focus global discussion on detection coordination, mitigation technique development, and command and control. v _________________________________ Faculty Preface Three powerful motivations affect human behavior: curiosity, profit and fear. The study of Near Earth Objects fits well into any of these categories. Some wish to study them to learn about the early Solar System, some see in them a source of revenue from the exploitation of their resources, and some fear that one day one of them will collide with the Earth and cause loss of human life or the extinction of our civilization. The last is what has motivated this study of Near Earth Objects. Developed by a group of 30 participants attending the 2005 Summer Session Program of the International Space University, the Cassandra report addresses many of the concerns of scientists, decision-makers and general public about the threat posed by Near Earth Objects: what we can do to detect them well in advance, and more important, what we can do in case astronomers discover that one of them is en route to collide with our planet. In recent years, the Near Earth Object threat has received increasing attention from an expert community, but the uniqueness and strength of the Cassandra report resides in the people that performed it: an international group with representatives of 13 different countries and different backgrounds ranging from science and engineering to business, law and policy. This unbiased and