Behuria, Pritish (2015) Committing to self-reliance and negotiating vulnerability : understanding the developmental change in Rwanda. PhD Thesis. SOAS, University of London. http://eprints.soas.ac.uk/id/eprint/23871 Copyright © and Moral Rights for this PhD Thesis are retained by the author and/or other copyright owners. A copy can be downloaded for personal non‐commercial research or study, without prior permission or charge. This PhD Thesis cannot be reproduced or quoted extensively from without first obtaining permission in writing from the copyright holder/s. The content must not be changed in any way or sold commercially in any format or medium without the formal permission of the copyright holders. When referring to this PhD Thesis, full bibliographic details including the author, title, awarding institution and date of the PhD Thesis must be given e.g. AUTHOR (year of submission) "Full PhD Thesis title", name of the School or Department, PhD PhD Thesis, pagination. Committing to Self-Reliance and Negotiating Vulnerability: Understanding the Developmental Challenge in Rwanda PRITISH BEHURIA Thesis submitted for the degree of PhD in Development Studies 2015 Department of Development Studies SOAS, University of London 1 Declaration for SOAS PhD Thesis I have read and understood regulation 17.9 of the Regulations for students of the SOAS, University of London concerning plagiarism. I undertake that all the material presented for examination is my own work and has not been written for me, in whole or in part, by any other person. I also undertake that any quotation or paraphrase from the published or unpublished work of another person has been duly acknowledged in the work, which I present for examination. Signed: _________________________ Date: ____________________________ 2 Abstract The Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) government has made remarkable economic progress over the past two decades. During this time, the RPF government’s policies have demonstrated similarities with the policies followed by East Asian developmental states. The government has intervened in the economy to promote diversification while also opening its economy to international competition. It has also made strategic investments, which have led to the adoption of new production techniques. Conditions of ‘systemic vulnerability’ have also applied in Rwanda (Doner et al. 2005). However, the RPF government’s strategy is also strikingly different since it has liberalised its financial sector and has only experienced limited manufacturing sector growth. It has also embraced governance reforms to a greater degree than most other developmental states. The RPF’s development strategy has been shaped by the competing demands of “three constituencies” – donors, domestic elites and the population. To manage capital and organise labour to appropriate systems of accumulation, the government has developed narratives as one way to retain legitimacy among three constituencies. Evidence of continued economic success and progress in three sectors (coffee, tea and mining) show that ruling elites are committed to economic development. However, vulnerabilities resulting from the need to appease “three constituencies” have inhibited economic development. This thesis highlights the evolution of elite politics, details RPF ideology and develops a historical study of three sectors (coffee, tea and mining). Though previous governments invested in increasing the production of primary commodity exports, very little was done to reduce the vulnerability of the economy to global commodity price fluctuations. In contrast, the RPF’s strategy has targeted reducing vulnerability to international price fluctuations through increasing productivity and embracing value-addition. Such goals work in line with achieving self-reliance. A better understanding of the developmental challenge facing the RPF government is developed through showcasing how vulnerability both motivates and inhibits economic development. 3 Acknowledgments There are many people who have supported and inspired this project. Christopher Cramer has been an excellent intellectual example to follow. I thank him for accepting me into the PhD Programme at SOAS, introducing me to political economy, giving me the space to explore ideas and being patient with me when I faltered. Professors James Putzel and Graham Harrison made thoughtful comments that have improved this thesis. Phil Clark has been a source of encouragement throughout this project. I was extremely lucky that Phil joined SOAS the year I started my PhD. His advice about fieldwork gave me the confidence to conduct my own. Teaching experiences at SOAS over the past two years have contributed to inspirations behind this project. I thank my students for forcing me to learn more and for keeping me on my toes. Stephen Kinzer introduced me to Rwanda when he taught me an undergraduate course at Northwestern University in 2008. I thank him for setting this journey in motion. The Government of Rwanda gave me permission to conduct research. The opportunity to learn from people at the centre of ‘doing’ development has had a lasting impact on me. The Effective States and Inclusive Development Research Centre (ESID) funded a fieldwork stint in Rwanda in January 2015. Thanks are owed to ESID and my colleague on the project, Tom Goodfellow. During fieldwork, I thank everyone who spoke to me, shared their time, thoughts and experiences. Most importantly, I thank those who trusted me with their stories. Letting me into their lives and allowing me to express my views has been a wonderful honour. I hope that I managed to do some justice to the stories, experiences and perspectives that were shared with me. Many friendships have been formed out of this experience (both in Rwanda and away from it). I am grateful to those who shared their ideas, to those who tolerated mine and to those who patiently listened. To my mother, father and sister, for their love, support and criticisms, I cannot thank them enough. They have asked no questions and asked too many, they have kept me close and allowed me space to breathe. They have always supported me. They have even read this thesis and seen it grow. Although nothing I do will ever be enough, I dedicate this thesis to them. 4 TABLE OF CONTENTS Declaration for SOAS PhD Thesis 2 Abstract 3 Acknowledgments 4 Table of Contents 5 List of Figures 9 List of Tables 12 List of Boxes 13 List of Abbreviations 14 Map of Rwanda 21 CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................... 22 1.1 Regime Change in Rwanda .................................................................................. 27 1.2 Comparing Past and Present Economic Strategies in Rwanda ............................ 29 1.3 Research Question: Is Post-1994 Rwanda a developmental state? ...................... 40 1.4 Judging Developmentalism in Rwanda ................................................................ 45 1.4A Wade’s (1990) Characterisation of a Developmental State .............................. 46 Characteristic 1: Very high levels of productive investment, ensuring new techniques were transferred quickly into actual production. .............................. 46 Characteristic 2: Investment in certain key industries that would not have occurred without government intervention. ........................................................ 47 Characteristic 3: Exposure of many industries to international competition. ..... 48 1.4B Systemic Vulnerability ...................................................................................... 48 Condition 1: Maintaining Broad Coalitions and Combating Internal Threat ..... 51 Condition 2: Severe Security Threats or External Threat ................................... 53 Condition 3: Scarce Resource Endowments or Scarce Revenue Sources .......... 55 1.4C Dealing with Donors, Countering threats and Building a 21st Century Developmental State .................................................................................................. 60 Constructing narratives to retain legitimacy while masking accumulation ........ 60 Maintaining a Developmental Political Settlement ............................................ 63 1.5 The Argument ...................................................................................................... 64 1.6 Structure of the Thesis ......................................................................................... 65 5 CHAPTER 2: THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK ............................................................... 66 2.1: Ideology .............................................................................................................. 66 2.2: Narratives ............................................................................................................ 69 2.3: Political Settlements and Elite Bargains ............................................................. 72 Violence and the Political Settlement ................................................................. 76 2.4: Exploitation, Coercion and Accumulation in the Agriculture Sector ................. 78 2.5: Exit, Voice and Loyalty: Maintaining a Developmental Political Settlement through Retaining Legitimacy and Sustaining Systems of Accumulation ................ 89 CHAPTER 3: METHODOLOGY .................................................................................... 92 3.1: Narratives, Information and Rumours ...............................................................