Modelling bushfire changes for South Australian regions Final Report – January 2015 Jacqueline Balston & Associates Department of Environment, Water and Natural Resources South Australian Prospering in a Changing Climate Program ©2014 South Australian Government. Contact for enquiries: Dr. Jacqueline Balston, Jacqueline Balston & Associates, P.O. Box 315, Bridgewater, South Australia 5155. Title: Modelling bushfire changes for South Australian regions. This report should be cited as: Balston, J.M. and Williams, A. (2014), Modelling bushfire changes for South Australian regions, Department of Environment, Water and Natural Resources South Australia, Adelaide, South Australia. pp.88. Contributors: Dr. Balston, J.M. – Jacqueline Balston & Associates. Dr. Williams, A.J. – Tjuringa Products and Services. A copy of this report and further information on climate change in South Australia is available at the South Australian Government Environment website: (http://www.environment.sa.gov.au/firemanagement/Fire_and_the_Environment/Fire_research) Disclaimer: Jacqueline Balston & Associates and collaborating researchers, consultants and organisations involved in the development of this report do not warrant or make any representation regarding the use, or results of the use, of the information contained herein as regards to its correctness, accuracy, reliability, currency or otherwise. Jacqueline Balston & Associates and its employees or the employees of collaborating researchers, consultants or organisations involved in the development of this report expressly disclaim all liability or responsibility to any person using the information or advice. Acknowledgements: Thanks to: the project collaborators for their support and guidance (Lauren Burton and Mike Wouters, Department of Environment, Water and Natural Resources; Liz Connell, SAFECOM; Leigh Miller, CFS; Adam Gray, LGASA; Natasha Hall, Central Region LGA; Jarrod White Northern and Yorke NRM; Darren Ray, Bureau of Meteorology SA; Jacqueline Frizenschaf, SA Water).This project was funded by the South Australian Department of Environment, Water and Natural Resources, Northern and Yorke NRM and SA Water. TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS ..................................................................................................................................... 3 LIST OF FIGURES .............................................................................................................................................. 5 LIST OF TABLES ................................................................................................................................................ 6 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................................................................................. 7 1 BACKGROUND TO THE PROJECT ...................................................................................................... 8 1.1 PROJECT CONTEXT .............................................................................................................................. 8 1.2 PROJECT AIM AND OUTPUTS ............................................................................................................ 8 1.3 PROJECT METHODOLOGY ................................................................................................................. 8 2 CLIMATE CHANGE AND BUSHFIRE – A REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE OF RELEVANCE TO SOUTH AUSTRALIA ................................................................................................................................... 9 2.1 BUSHFIRE IN THE SOUTH AUSTRALIAN LANDSCAPE ................................................................. 9 2.2 CURRENT BUSHFIRE FORECASTING IN AUSTRALIA ................................................................... 9 2.3 GLOBAL GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS ........................................................................................ 9 2.4 OBSERVED CHANGES IN THE SOUTH AUSTRALIAN CLIMATE ............................................... 10 2.5 FUTURE EXPECTED CHANGES IN THE SOUTH AUSTRALIAN CLIMATE................................ 10 2.6 GLOBAL BUSHFIRE STUDIES .......................................................................................................... 11 2.7 AUSTRALIAN BUSHFIRE STUDIES ................................................................................................. 11 2.8 SOUTH AUSTRALIAN BUSHFIRE STUDIES ................................................................................... 12 2.9 LITERATURE REVIEW SUMMARY .................................................................................................. 12 3 FIRE AND CLIMATE CHANGE ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY AND DATA .............................. 13 4 PILOT STUDY AREAS IN SOUTH AUSTRALIA ............................................................................... 17 4.1 STUDY AREA 1 – SPRING GULLY CONSERVATION PARK IN THE CLARE VALLEY ............. 17 4.2 STUDY AREA 2 – MT. BOLD RESERVOIR IN THE ADELAIDE HILLS ........................................................ 17 5 ANALYSIS AND RESULTS FOR PILOT STUDY AREAS ................................................................ 19 6 RECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS .................................................................................. 23 6.1 RECOMMENDATIONS ....................................................................................................................... 23 6.2 CONCLUSIONS .................................................................................................................................... 23 GLOSSARY ........................................................................................................................................................ 25 APPENDIX 1: CLIMATE CHANGE AND BUSHFIRE – A REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE OF RELEVANCE TO SOUTH AUSTRALIA ....................................................................................................... 28 A1.1 BUSHFIRE IN THE AUSTRALIAN LANDSCAPE .............................................................................. 28 A1.2 CURRENT BUSHFIRE FORECASTING IN AUSTRALIA .................................................................. 28 A1.3 GLOBAL WARMING IMPACTS ON SA CLIMATE ........................................................................... 31 A1.4 FUTURE GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSION SCENARIOS ................................................................................ 32 A1.5 OBSERVED AND EXPECTED FUTURE CHANGES TO BUSHFIRE WEATHER IN SA ................ 34 A1.6 GLOBAL BUSHFIRE STUDIES ............................................................................................................... 39 A1.7 AUSTRALIAN BUSHFIRE STUDIES .................................................................................................. 40 A1.8 SOUTH AUSTRALIAN BUSHFIRE STUDIES .................................................................................... 43 A1.9 LITERATURE REVIEW CONCLUDING SUMMARY........................................................................ 47 APPENDIX 2 – DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE DATA AND METHODOLOGY .......................... 48 A2.1 QUESTION 1: IS THERE DATA FOR THE REGIONAL AREAS OF SA TO SUPPORT THE CALCULATION OF THE FFDI AND GFDI? ............................................................................................................................................. 48 A2.2 ANSWER TO QUESTION 1: ................................................................................................................. 54 A2.3 QUESTION 2: IF WE CAN USE GRIDDED DATA TO UNDERTAKE THE CALCULATIONS OF THE FFDI, WHICH ONE/S ARE SUITABLE TO USE IN REGIONAL SA? ................................................ 54 A2.4 ANSWER TO QUESTION 2: ................................................................................................................. 56 - Page 3 of 88- A2.5 QUESTION 3: IF THERE IS A RANGE OF DATA OPTIONS FOR USE IN THE ANALYSIS OF THE FFDI, WHICH METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH IS THE BEST FOR USE IN REGIONAL SA? .............. 56 A2.6 ANSWER TO QUESTION 3: ................................................................................................................. 62 A2.7 QUESTION 4: ONCE A METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH HAS BEEN DETERMINED, WHAT ANALYSIS OF THE DATA NEEDS TO BE DONE TO DESCRIBE THE HISTORICAL AND FUTURE CHARACTERISTICS AND TRENDS IN THE FFDI? ................................................................................... 63 A2.8 ANSWER TO QUESTION 4: ................................................................................................................. 63 APPENDIX 3 – ANALYSIS AND RESULTS .................................................................................................. 65 A3.1 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................................ 65 A3.2 DATA ....................................................................................................................................................... 65 A3.3 METHODOLOGY USED AT THE PILOT STUDY AREAS .................................................................................. 68 A3.4 ANALYSIS ................................................................................................................................................ 69 A3.6 CONCLUSIONS FROM THE PILOT STUDY ANALYSIS ....................................................................... 84 A3.7 CAVEATS ................................................................................................................................................