Antonio´ Jesus Monteiro de Castro A Distributed Approach to Integrated and Dynamic Disruption Management in Airline Operations Control July 18, 2013 Supervisor: Professor Doutor Eugenio´ de Oliveira Faculdade de Engenharia Universidade do Porto Rua Dr. Roberto Frias, s/n 4200-465 Porto, Portugal Thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Doctoral Degree in Informatics Engineering This work was supported by Fundac¸ao˜ para a Cienciaˆ e Tecnologia (FCT) through grant SFRH/BD/44109/2008. Copyright c 2013 by Antonio´ J. M. Castro English text reviewed by Ricardo Tavares ([email protected]) Subtly, you brought something new to my life. I hardly realized what it was and its importance. After all, it was just a distant star that you decided to bring closer. It seemed one among many, but it had a special feature: when I’m near it, my heart glows with happiness. I will keep it close, hoping that you will never take it back from me. Antonio´ Castro To the memory of my beloved sister, Laura Castro, who died in March, 17th., 2011 with just 40 years of age. Acknowledgments Life has two parts: the one we live and the one we do not live. I regret not to live the latter and not to fully live the former. I do not know what would have been the life I have not lived, but the unknown is always a good excuse for adventure and I would be thrilled to participate in it. However, I do know the life I have lived. The good things, the bad things and the missed opportunities. During more than five years, a lot of things happened in my life. My divorce and the death of my sister are amongst those that had a great impact on my life. The two year battle against cancer, with all the ups and downs, some days lived with hope for a cure but a lot of other days confronted with the hard reality, turned those years into something very, very hard for all of us but, specially, for her. For me, that time was hard too, but seeing her in those last fifteen minutes of life, her breath, slow and increasingly spaced showing that she wanted to live, and that moment when she ceased to breathe, I still feel them today. In an instant, she was no longer among us and a huge void fills our heart and our mind starts to become full of unanswered questions. See you soon Laura! Bad times also allow us to have good times. One I remember most happened the day before going to the funeral. For her it was nothing special but, for me, to have the company of someone who actually wanted to be there and feel the same as me, showed me that true friendship still exists. Even in the solitary dinner I had that day, she was there, listening and answering to my messages. You probably do not remember it but I do. Thanks! To also see someone that I did not expect, in my sister’s funeral, supporting me through that moment, is another example of true friendship. I know you remember it. Thanks! These apparently small things, remind me that the important things are those that have a mean- ing for us, independently of being big or small. This work was only possible thanks to the contributions of many people, who helped in several ways. It is hard to acknowledge all these people, whose true impact on the final work I may not even realize at this moment. First, I would like to thank my parents. From the little they had, they gave me so much. The wisdom to know that it does not matter where we are from or if we come from a rich or poor family. It all depends on us, on what we value and on our choices. Second, I would like to thank my daughters. Despite what they may think of me, they are my most precious legacy. I love you unconditionally. Third, I would like to thank Paula, for all that you were, for all that you are and for all that you will be in my life. Prof. Eugenio´ de Oliveira has been my supervisor and mentor since I decided to get a Master’s degree in Artificial Intelligence and Intelligent Systems. His knowledge and friendship has been an important asset for me, not only during my PhD but, also, in my life. Please accept my deepest gratitude. A word of appreciation goes to my advisory group. I am grateful to Prof. Pavao˜ Martins and Prof. Luis Paulo Reis for reading and giving feedback regarding my work. I also wish to thank Eng. Manoel Torres, TAP Portugal EVP, for believing in me and for all the support. The same gratitude extends to Captain Vasco Moura. I could not finish this work without your support. I am also grateful to Eng. Antonio´ Aguiar for the help in reviewing the text. vii viii Acknowledgments Additionally, I would like to thank all my colleagues at LIACC/NIADR for their support, for the productive discussions and exchange of ideas, and also for the friendly environment they helped to create. To Prof. Eugenio,´ Ana Paula, Antonio´ Pereira, Henrique, Joana and Rosaldo, for all the happy moments around a table full of food, wine and cigars (I will never forget how to light a Cuban cigar). To Antonio´ Pedro Pereira, Bruno Aguiar, Francisca Teixeira, Jose´ Pedro Silva, Jose´ Torres and Leonardo Fraga for all the help during different stages of the prototype development. To all the other colleagues at LIACC/NIADR (in alphabetic order): Andreia Malucelli, Celia,´ Gustavo, Jorge Teixeira, Luis Paulo Reis, Luis Sarmento and Pedro Brandao.˜ Thanks for your company and help. In TAP Portugal I have a fantastic team of colleagues and friends, that work with me in several information system projects (in alphabetic order): Carla Cunha, Cristina Serra, Gonc¸alo, Helena Patronilho, Isabel Girao,˜ Jaime Crato, Joao˜ Costa, Joao˜ Paquete, Lu´ıs Barbosa, Nuno Vicente, Patr´ıcia Manhao,˜ Pedro Rica and Sandra Mendonc¸a. Part of my work has also your contribution. I am also grateful to Marta for remembering me the importance of having a sergeant pushing for me all the time. I am also grateful to Shawn Wolfe from NASA AMES Research Center, SISCOG and TAP Portugal. Your support was important in my dissertation work. I also want to thank my ex-wife for all the support she gave me while we were married. Finally, I would like to thank Mother Nature for creating a place called Caramulo. The moun- tain air, sunshine and mild breeze and the peaceful stillness of that rock in the middle of nowhere, inspired me and gave me the peace that I needed to write parts of this dissertation. Antonio´ Castro May 2013 Resumo As companhias aereas´ fazem um enorme esforc¸o para maximizar as suas receitas mantendo os seus custos no m´ınimo valor poss´ıvel. Esta nao˜ e´ uma tarefa facil´ e, por isso, as companhias aereas´ investem em ferramentas que permitam otimizar o seu plano operacional. Infelizmente, qualquer plano operacional tem uma grande probabilidade de ser afetado, nao˜ so´ por grandes ruturas tal como a que aconteceu em Abril de 2010, devido a` erupc¸ao˜ do vulcao˜ Islandesˆ Eyjafjallajokull¨ mas, mais frequentemente, por pequenas ruturas causadas por mau tempo, avarias nos avioes˜ e absentismo dos tripulantes, por exemplo. Estas ruturas afetam o plano original, atrasando os voos e causando aquilo a que se chama Operac¸ao˜ Irregular. Existem estudos que estimam que as operac¸oes˜ irregulares podem custar entre 2% a 3% da receita anual da companhia aerea´ e que, um melhor processo de recuperac¸ao˜ pode resultar numa reduc¸ao˜ de custos de, pelo menos, 20% da sua operac¸ao˜ irregular. Os Centros de Controlo Operacional das companhias aereas´ (CCO) tentam gerir estas ruturas procurando soluc¸oes˜ com o m´ınimo de impacto no plano operacional e com o m´ınimo custo. Normalmente, o CCO resolve as ruturas de forma sequencial, i.e., primeiro resolve a parte corre- spondente ao recurso aviao,˜ depois a parte da tripulac¸ao˜ e, finalmente, a parte dos passageiros. A maior parte do processo de resoluc¸ao˜ e´ feita manualmente por operadores experientes, tendo como ajuda algumas ferramentas computorizadas. Nesta tese, estudamos o CCO da TAP Portugal assim como o trabalho proposto por outros inves- tigadores nesta area,´ e propomos uma abordagem generica´ distribu´ıda e descentralizada para uma gestao˜ de ruturas integrada e dinamicaˆ no controlo operacional das companhias aereas,´ baseada no paradigma dos Sistemas Multi-Agente (SMA). Esta e´ uma das contribuic¸oes˜ principais do nosso trabalho A abordagem e´ distribu´ıda porque permite a distribuic¸ao˜ funcional, espacial e f´ısica das varias´ func¸oes˜ e do ambiente (i.e., dos recursos dispon´ıveis); e´ descentralizada porque algumas decisoes˜ sao˜ tomadas em nos´ diferentes da rede de agentes; e´ integrada porque inclui as principais di- mensoes˜ do problema: aviao,˜ tripulac¸ao˜ e passageiros; e e´ dinamicaˆ porque, em tempo real, varios´ agentes estao˜ a funcionar no ambiente reagindo as` mudanc¸as constantes. Apesar de termos usado o CCO da TAP Portugal como caso de estudo, o nosso trabalho foi realizado com um pensamento out-of-the-box. Por pensamento out-of-the-box, queremos dizer que tentamos pensar para alem´ dos requisitos do problema em concreto que estamos a resolver neste momento, explorando direc¸oes˜ divergentes e envolvendo varios´ aspetos que, no futuro, podem ser uma mais-valia. Propomos (e esta e´ mais uma das principais contribuic¸oes˜ do nosso trabalho) um protocolo de negociac¸ao˜ chamado Generic Q-Negotiation (GQN) para ser usado como mecanismo de decisao,˜ no processo de gestao˜ de ruturas.